Games on steam on PS3 wouldn't undercut.

Because games on steam on PC doesn't undercut. And neither do Playstation downloadable titles.

I believe 18 months is right for the debut at E3 2013. Setting up for a 2014-2015 release.

I think we can be certain that Sony are not going to wait for PS3's 10th anniversary to launch PS4. It really will be aging horribly by then. 18 month's time is PS3's 7th anniversary from the Japan launch. Gives PS4 3 years to get up a head of steam before Sony pull the plug on PS3.

A 3 year transition seems a bit long. I would think 2 years would be enough, if PS4 launches for the right price. If Sony can get PS3 costs down to

i hope Wii U will be quite a good success and PS4 and XBOX180 will release at the same time so that can kill themselves on hardcore gamers and die soon after!

@Fedfed

Do you have a problem with "Hardcore" gamers ?

You do realize the scenario you described will cost thousends of people their job and kill of a huge part of the gaming industry ? Why should you wish for that ?

I think there is still a decent amount not known yet of the Wii U capabilities. We mainly know what we saw at E3 2011. They are saying it is "considerably" more powerful than X360, and PS3. We don't know for sure how games will look on the Wii U yet. Im sure both MS and Sony have at least a game plan of their next console move, but Im sure they are wanting to see what the consesus is of the Wii U. I think Sony will likely try to release around the same time as MS so they are not considered the last console to release by a decent amount of time.

My other thoughts are that the PS3 is really hitting a chord now with gamers like the OP mentioned. Also MS is really trying to focus on Kinect right now. They are both in good positions and are beating out the Wii. Just last year both console makers had some of their best years in this console gen. Thats impressive this late in the game. its hard to see them moving on now. It will be interesting to see if consumers see the Wii U as a fully new Gen console or something that directly competes with X360 and PS3 as an HD console. I personally think MS and Sony are wanting to see how Consumers react to it. If they act too early or even to late in their next console they will shoot themselves in the foot. So their next move is a tricky one. But be sure that if either MS or Sony announce a next gen console the other will follow suite as quickly as possible.

If MS or Sony are planning a new console release I don't see it happening until late 2013 at the earliest. Both console makers are still doing very well with their current consoles. The question they are asking themselves; "Will the Wii U be a game changer, or an equal performer?". Im leaning to the latter but we will see. I will say however that MS and Sony will release their next gen product absolutely no later than 2015. I think next gen consoles will make a much larger use of "Steam", "Cloud" type functionality. games will be more widely downloaded to the gaming system rather than using physical media.

I still put my money on fall 2013 release

The 'ideal' life span of any console ( at least from the makers point of view ) is to keep it around as long as possible because the longer its around the cheaper it gets for them to manufacture..  The 'easiest' way to do that is if you're console is selling better then everyone elses.  Last generation they 'could' (figuratively speaking ) 'milk' the PS2 and make it last because last gen it had very little competition...it was the #1 selling console, it had the most games, and it had the best games.  Its much harder for any console manufacturer to do this when you're in a much tighter race.. You can't have the longest life cycle when you're in  a tight race ( as Sony is now ) and will likely never be anywhere close to #1 as the PS2 was...  I Don't Beleive Sony will not hit the 10 yr mark this time, before the launch of the PS4, they seem more determined to have a product launch ready in conjunction with MS's launch..  EA has supposedly leaked out that they are already developing for a NEXT GEN Xbox .. which makes sense.. If Next Gen launches in 2 yrs.. it means what ?  Game development is already happening.. consoles typically launch with a dozen titles on day one with more following within weeks..