That is a claim that has been thrown around for years. I knew people who swore DVD players would be bigger on PCs than on TVs and we see how that went. Do you know what my greatest party trick is right now? I play video files on my PC/Laptop on a regular TV. Everyone always thinks it is the coolest thing ever! You know what the best part is though? Their PC/Laptop can also do it. Almost every video card I have seen for the last 2 years has had TV out, and most in the last 5 years have had it. People don't like all in one set-ups like that though. It makes everything slightly more complex, and thus they just get confused and give up.

You either missed my point, or are ignoring it. My second paragraph there was still refferring to the Wii, not all the consoles.

My point basically stands that 80% of the reason why the Wii is succeeding hand over foot against the PS3 and 360 is because they are the ones who are headed towards this demise you're talking about. The numerous SKUs, firmware updates and patches and ports are almost all 360/PS3. Nintendo right now has had maybe 3 minor firmware updates, no new SKUs, I've heard of a patch for MAYBE one game, and even if you have ports from other consoles, the use of the Wiimote basically changes everything about how the game is played to the point that people are buying it on the idea that will be different from the other ports.

As things stand, Yes, I totally see the future you're talking about happening to 360 and PS3, but nintendo is setting themselves totally apart from that, and I believe they will continue to do so.

 The large disparity in the power of the various consoles is mostly unique to this generation. Having similar capabilities will not lead to console singularity as you claim. The input devices is what has always been the largest difference, and that difference is only getting more exagerated.

 Nintendo is also mopping the floor with the competition following their own path. Both Microsoft and Sony will take note of that. Expect the next generation of consoles to incorporate a lot of the lessons we are learning from the success of the Wii. They won't be exact clones of course, but I suspect they will move closer to simple fun as opposed to bleeding edge technology.

I thought that too, but I can see now that the Wii is a correction to the slow lane, not a revolution. We will end up with the best of technology and fun in the next generation (no way am I saying Nintendo will fail or even come anything less than first this or next generation). However, console technology nearing the PC is what will be pushed by the entire industry except Nintendo even if the Xbox 360 or PS3 fail.

 Why on earth do you think that? There is already evidence surfacing that Microsoft is paying attention to what Nintendo has done. Sony has also made cryptic statements alluding to the fact that the PS4 will be going down a different path than the PS3 is. Whatevidence do you have that supports this silly notion of Microsoft and Sony refusing to notice the unbelievable success of both the DS and the Wii.

"Why on earth do you think that? There is already evidence surfacing that Microsoft is paying attention to what Nintendo has done. Sony has also made cryptic statements alluding to the fact that the PS4 will be going down a different path than the PS3 is. Whatevidence do you have that supports this silly notion of Microsoft and Sony refusing to notice the unbelievable success of both the DS and the Wii."

I know that, but I still believe the trend of eroding my four key advantages will continue - i.e. PS3/Xbox 360 simply went further along the path than the market can accept at this point, and the Wii still represents some movement in that direction with its System Updates and $250 launch price.

The audience that will buy my kind of console is increasing all of the time as people are born and the current under-25 fascination and familiarity with that sort of technology will stay with that generation.

Great thread. Your scenario could end up coming true however I believe there is no reason why PCs and consoles can't coexist. While you can get your PC to do almost anything the upkeep is much higher especially in terms of hardware upgrades. So while PC gamers must make sure that their PC is up to date and capable of running the latest games, console gamers know that their games have been optimized for their console.

Consequently I don't see consoles going away anytime soon. On another note I don't see consoles going backwards as far as being turned into multimedia centers. I see consoles having a symbiotic relationship with PCs well into the future.

I really think people will continue to buy consoles, amps, DVD-CD players and so on because the average consumer won't, for a long time, wants to invest in a computer that handles everything until "server-like" home networks are common, that have everything on one server that is accesible without a "windows-like environment" from different screens so that once you turn on the TV it won't show the whole environment, but just the film/TV section for example. Even then the quality of computer hardware has to become as good as specialized products. Why would someone buy a specialized product to build it in a PC if you can also have it and put it in your room, without installing anything. 

 So, in other words, you have no evidence at all of what you claim. The under 25 market is not guaranteed to be tech savvy, and a large number of them are not. My party trick has been shown almost exclusively to people under the age of 25. Simplicity sells. That is why Windows is, and will continue to be the dominant OS. Linux isn't even that hard to get or understand, but it holds your hand a lot less than any version of Windows so it remains a niche.

 Further more, the 360 and PS3 are not headed down a path to the PC. They both have signficant differences that make a ctirical distinction between them and PCs that will not be erased. 95% of games on the 360 and all games released on the PS3 work on every model. You buy a game and it works. That is what has made console gaming so popular, and that has never changed. Microsoft refuses to allow developers to require the hard drive be present even though over 80% of their consoles have it because they want to keep every game on every console they have sold.

 The other big distinction is the controller is the same on every console, so the game handles the same everytime. You don't have to make sure the game works on a dvorak kkeyboard with a track ball mouse or any of that nonsense because it is exactly the same. You don't have to remap the keys or fiddle with the settings to make the game perfect.