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Forums - Sony - 5 PS3 predictions for 2008

Well I have had my 8 for 08 predictions for a while in my sig if anyone cares to look.

As far as these ones go:

1. This is basically a no brainer. It is not a matter of weather, but when. If this CE industry wants to get people serious about HD media they have got to all stand together on one format.

2. I think we will see new colors next year. I think it would be a great move to drop a 120GB white and and black model in place of the 80GB for the same price. Then just release a white counterpart to the 40GB. If they want to go any further than that I think people would be ok with silver as the next option.

3. I feel this is just the tip of the iceburg when it comes to PSN in 08. I see a TV, and Music part included in this as well. Don't expect the Movies to be up to snuff with Blu-ray though. I would expect 1080p but with transfer rates at about the level of HD-DVD or even HDTV.

4. Sony is going to be racking in the money once the download service is out so price cuts are a sure thing. I expect a $50 to match the 360 drop in may, and another $50 in November. Sony knows that if they bank it all on the PS3 they can control movies in the future and that is worth many losses right now. I mean what better way to take MS's Downloadable movie future away from them than to put it in the PS3, if it has 100M users.

5. I hope they were talking about life time sales, because that makes sense. But for Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008 PS3 will have a large gap in sales. They have already been out pacing 360 in to regions, so all they have to do is get even in America and they will be making huge strides.



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MrPickles said:
Sony will be able to pull off maybe a $50 price drop next year, max. The reason I say this is that they had to sell off several Cell manufacturing plants, as well as consolidate several important departments, to facilitate the drops they did this year. If it didn't have other departments to lean on, SCE would go bankrupt if they chopped off a further $100-$150.

Like the classic post from a while back - "We make more money by selling less units, as we lose less overall".

A further price drop would increase loss per unit AND boost the number of units sold --> heaps more loss.

What they really need are some exclusive, blockbuster software titles.

...

@KGB29: your 8 for '08 fails right at #1 - there is NO chance HD-DVD will "vanish". BluRay may become dominant, but HD-DVD isn't going anywhere in the short term. 

 



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BottledSpringWater said:

FROM PS3FANBOY.COM

http://www.ps3fanboy.com/2008/01/01/5-ps3-predictions-for-2008/


PS3 Prediction #4: Expect more price drops.

PS3 Prediction #5: PS3 sales will get better, but won't be able to beat Xbox 360 in 2008.


Price drop: a dead certainty, expect another $100 price drop by late 2008. Sony has cost reduced the heck out of the PS3, so right now they're close to breakeven on manufacturing costs (though not advertising and sales costs).

Catching 360: the PS3 is going to catch up fast with the 360, and may equal the 360's install base by the end of 2008.

Price cuts won't save the 360. Sony is making enough on its EU sales to slice another $50 off the PS3 by spring.

 



Warner has a lot riding on HD DVD, they won't drop it unless they think it can't succeed. Blu Ray continue to have very poor attach rates and struggles to out sell HD DVD 2-1 despite a huge hardware advantage. If Warner does go exclusive my bet would be on them going HD DVD exclusive.



So basically same as 07, promise alot and deliver little.



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twesterm said:
Wow, what boring and incredibly safe predictions.

That's what I thought *Yawns*



I guess that the fact that at last PS3 WILL have some exclusives, makes a "much better game library". I 'm looking forward to playing over 15 360 exclusives. But people seem to forget about them and keep ignoring them. Since when 15-20 PS exclusives built a "much better library", having in mind that PS2 had hundreds of exclusives year by year??? Anyway, some of those PS3 exclusives worth the hype...



I wouldn't count on a price drop. Shareholders are not going to be pleased with the results since Sony will never ship 11 million PS3's in their fiscal year 2007 (April). If they're lucky they have 11 million LTD but I don't even see that happening.
The problem for Sony is that their first party games don't sell at all. That's where the money should come from when the console is sold at a loss. Shareholders even more unhappy. A $50,- pricedrop could happen but definitely not more.
Even if MGS4 sells a lot of consoles (which I doubt, GTA4 will be much more important) Sony doesn't really benefit, since every console sold is loss, and until Killzone 2 and LBP no big 1st party games arrive. Sony really is in a bad position businesswise.

As for predictions: I think the PS3 will do better than this year, it will come closer to the 360, but they won't close the 7M+ gap they have right now, in order to do that they'd have to sell about the same number of PS3's as 2007 without any 360's sold!



starcraft said:
Can we stop the crap about Sony's massively superior games lineup. It's certainly good, but its been shown in thread after thread that the Wii and especially the 360 are going to match it awesome title for awesome title in 2008.

 I think you misunderstood the text there - you read it like "in spite of a much better library of games in 2008 ,than the 360 has ..." , but in my opnion the intention of the text was to say "in spite of a much better library of games in 2008 , than it had in 2007 ... "



lvader said:
Warner has a lot riding on HD DVD, they won't drop it unless they think it can't succeed. Blu Ray continue to have very poor attach rates and struggles to out sell HD DVD 2-1 despite a huge hardware advantage. If Warner does go exclusive my bet would be on them going HD DVD exclusive.

Warner's primary goal is to end the war.  Going HD DVD exclusive would not end the war in any sort of timely fashion, if it ended it at all, as Blu-Ray would still have 4 exclusive studios, and the ps3 would still sell like usual. If they went Blu, Blu-Ray would have 5 exclusive studios compared to just 2 for HD DVD, and the choice from a consumer stand point would be obvious.  The fear of buying into the wrong format would be removed, allowing HDM to take off.