I wouldn't count on a price drop. Shareholders are not going to be pleased with the results since Sony will never ship 11 million PS3's in their fiscal year 2007 (April). If they're lucky they have 11 million LTD but I don't even see that happening.
The problem for Sony is that their first party games don't sell at all. That's where the money should come from when the console is sold at a loss. Shareholders even more unhappy. A $50,- pricedrop could happen but definitely not more.
Even if MGS4 sells a lot of consoles (which I doubt, GTA4 will be much more important) Sony doesn't really benefit, since every console sold is loss, and until Killzone 2 and LBP no big 1st party games arrive. Sony really is in a bad position businesswise.
As for predictions: I think the PS3 will do better than this year, it will come closer to the 360, but they won't close the 7M+ gap they have right now, in order to do that they'd have to sell about the same number of PS3's as 2007 without any 360's sold!
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