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Forums - Sales - 360 market share to drop bellow 30% by...

Lafiel on 01 January 2008

@ azrm2k )

you totally misunderstood the topic , didn't you ? it's about when 360 drops below 30% and not when PS3 reaches 30%



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ultraslick on 01 January 2008
azrm2k said:

July 2008? 7 months from now?

Let's just look at this reasonably. If the Wii and the Xbox 360 completely stop selling today they would end up with 19.5 + 16.05 = 35.55

In order for that to comprise 70% marketshare the market would have to be 50.8 million and the PS3 would have to have a userbase of 15.25.

It'll end the year with about 9 million LTD meaning by July it would have to sell 6.25 million units the year after it sold 8 million all year?

Not gonna happen. Even if PS3 sales go crazy and it sells that 6.25 million by July I have a gut feeling the Wii and the Xbox 360 will also sell a few units before then. Even November is pushing it as even though I do believe the PS3 will sell above 7 million by November once again the 360 and Wii will keep on selling tempering how good the PS3 could possibly do.

Realistically speaking if the Wii momentum collapses from the sellout fever now and it sells 10 million this year and ends with 30 million and 360 flatlines and sells ~7 million and ends with 23.5 million you would have 53.5 million Wii60 userbase. That would mean PS3 would need to have 23 million to get to 30% by the end of the year.

So just to recap that last paragraph Wii sells 10 million, 360 sells 7 million, and PS3 sells 14 million in '08 for PS3 to get to 30%. Does anybody reasonably expect that to happen?

I'm sorry but just like overtaking the 360 WW a 30% marketshare for Sony is more than likely out of reach till '09.


 He was asking when the 360 will dip below 30%, not when PS3 will pass it (which I am sure you realize) but when reading, your post could be articulated better.

And anything is possible. I do see both the wii and ps3 stealing marketshare away from the 360.

So when will the 360 dive below 30%?  Not until November IMO. 



̶3̶R̶D̶   2ND! Place has never been so sweet.


I like Bacon on 01 January 2008

December 16th, 2008. My 18½ birthday.



TWRoO on 01 January 2008
Lafiel said:
@ azrm2k )

you totally misunderstood the topic , didn't you ? it's about when 360 drops below 30% and not when PS3 reaches 30%

Hmm, i missed the point too it seems.

It's possible for July I have to admit, but I still think it will be later, September or October is my guess.



azrm2k on 02 January 2008

Ah yes I was responding more to the fact that MGS4 would help cause it which I thought meant PS3 hitting 30%.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008

Won't happen for a while, since even if 360 stopped selling today it wouldn't be until the total consoles passed 53 million that 360 would be under 30%.

Assuming 360 hits 25 million this year it would require the total consoles to be over 83 million to drop under 30%

PS3 won't reach 20 million in 2008 so that will mean Wii would have to sell more than even JL's prediction for 2008 to drop the 360 below 30% this year



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Vertigo-X on 02 January 2008
azrm2k said:
Ah yes I was responding more to the fact that MGS4 would help cause it which I thought meant PS3 hitting 30%.

 Think about it this way then: the current number of consoles sold, according to VG Chartz, is about 44 million. If the 360 were to stop selling, both Wii and PS3 combined could get it to 53 million easily enough.



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