azrm2k said:
July 2008? 7 months from now?
Let's just look at this reasonably. If the Wii and the Xbox 360 completely stop selling today they would end up with 19.5 + 16.05 = 35.55
In order for that to comprise 70% marketshare the market would have to be 50.8 million and the PS3 would have to have a userbase of 15.25.
It'll end the year with about 9 million LTD meaning by July it would have to sell 6.25 million units the year after it sold 8 million all year?
Not gonna happen. Even if PS3 sales go crazy and it sells that 6.25 million by July I have a gut feeling the Wii and the Xbox 360 will also sell a few units before then. Even November is pushing it as even though I do believe the PS3 will sell above 7 million by November once again the 360 and Wii will keep on selling tempering how good the PS3 could possibly do.
Realistically speaking if the Wii momentum collapses from the sellout fever now and it sells 10 million this year and ends with 30 million and 360 flatlines and sells ~7 million and ends with 23.5 million you would have 53.5 million Wii60 userbase. That would mean PS3 would need to have 23 million to get to 30% by the end of the year.
So just to recap that last paragraph Wii sells 10 million, 360 sells 7 million, and PS3 sells 14 million in '08 for PS3 to get to 30%. Does anybody reasonably expect that to happen? I'm sorry but just like overtaking the 360 WW a 30% marketshare for Sony is more than likely out of reach till '09. |
He was asking when the 360 will dip below 30%, not when PS3 will pass it (which I am sure you realize) but when reading, your post could be articulated better.
And anything is possible. I do see both the wii and ps3 stealing marketshare away from the 360.
So when will the 360 dive below 30%? Not until November IMO.
