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Forums - Movies & TV - Weekend Estimate (July 22-24) (Captain America > 65m, HP7 ~48m)

The Top Movies, Weekend of July 22, 2011

  MovieDistributorGenreGrossChangeThtrs.Per Thtr.Total GrossDays
1 (new) Captain America: The First Avenger Paramount Pictures Action $65,827,000   3,715 $17,719 $65,827,000 3
2 (1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II Warner Bros. Adventure $48,065,000 -71.59% 4,375 $10,986 $274,182,000 10
3 (new) Friends with Benefits Sony Pictures Romantic Comedy $18,500,000   2,926 $6,323 $18,500,000 3
4 (2) Transformers: Dark of the Moon Paramount Pictures Action $12,000,000 -43.74% 3,375 $3,556 $325,789,000 26
5 (3) Horrible Bosses Warner Bros. Comedy $11,720,000 -34.07% 3,104 $3,776 $82,402,000 17
6 (4) Zookeeper Sony Pictures Romantic Comedy $8,700,000 -29.44% 3,215 $2,706 $59,200,000 17
7 (5) Cars 2 Walt Disney Pictures Adventure $5,726,000 -31.89% 2,668 $2,146 $176,445,000 31
8 (6) Winnie the Pooh Walt Disney Pictures Adventure $5,141,000 -34.57% 2,405 $2,138 $17,573,000 10
9 (7) Bad Teacher Sony Pictures Comedy $2,600,000 -49.54% 2,034 $1,278 $94,355,000 31
10 (10) Midnight in Paris Sony Pictures Classics Romantic Comedy $1,899,246 +1.21% 621 $3,058 $48,877,790 66

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Weekend Prediction

Weekend Predictions: Last vs. First


This weekend the battle will be between the last Harry Potter movie and The First Avenger. As long as the two films are close, the box office should be strong. In fact, The Deathly Hallows, Part 2 could break the record for largest week-to-week drop off (in terms of raw dollars) and still top last year's number one film. As long as Captain Americacomes close and Friends with Benefits doesn't bomb, we should see strong growth on a year-over-year basis.

After shattering records last weekend, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 is looking to avoid breaking another record this weekend. No film has ever seen its weekend box office number fall by more than $100 million during its sophomore stint. New Moon came very, very close with a decline from $142.84 million to $42.87 million. However, only the most bullish analysts expect don't expect Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 to become the first. With an opening weekend of $169,189,427, the film would have to avoid a 60% drop-off to not fall $100 million. There are some reasons to feel hopeful, most obviously the Oscar-worthy reviews, but also the sense of nostalgia. Since this will be the last time fans will be able to seeHarryHermioneRon, and the others in theaters, some of the more hardcore fans might decide to make a ritual of the film and watch it every week. If these forces prevail, there's a slim chance the film will earn close to $75 million over the weekend for a total of $300 million after just ten days of release, for yet another record. On the other hand, the Fanboy effect might be so great that it will overcome all other aspects and cause the film to collapse by more than 70%, leaving it with just under $50 million for the weekend. Sadly, the lower end seems more likely, but a first place, $55 million weekend is still worth celebrating and would give the film $282 million, which is already more thanThe Prisoner of Azkaban or The Chamber of Secrets earned in total.

Captain America: The First Avenger has a legitimate shot at first place. In some ways it is tracking just as strong as Thor was before that film opened, which puts $65 million on the table. On the other hand, its competition is obviously much stronger, and the flood of comic book movies so far this summer could be too much for moviegoers to take. That said, while Captain America's reviewsare a little weaker that Thor's reviews were, 73% positive is still strong for a summer blockbuster. And given Marvel's track record so far, $50 million is likely on the low end of expectations, while first place with $60 million is not out of the question. I'm going with second place and $54 million, but I'm not exactly sure of that.

The second wide release of the week is Friends with Benefits, which stars Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake as Natalie Portman and Ashton Kutcherrespectively. Comparisons to No Strings Attached are persisting. This film'sreviews is better than the reviews its predecessor earned, and it does have a better release date. That said, it also has much stronger competition and it is on the tail end of a string of R-rated comedies. Look for $22 million during its opening weekend and just over $60 million in total.

Horrible Bosses has overtaken Transformers: Dark of the Moon on the daily chart, and it will likely do the same over the weekend, but it should be close with both films making between $10 million and $11 million. For Horrible Bosses, this will be enough to keep it on pace to reach $100 million in total. As for Dark of the Moon, it has already reached its last major milestone on the domestic front.



1- HP7: 48,000,000 - 75,000,000 (55,000,000)

2- Captain America: 50,000,000 - 60,000,000 (54,000,000)

3- Friends With Benefits: (22,000,000)

4- Horrible Bosses: 10,000,000 - 11,000,000

5- Transformers

Forecast: 'Captain America' Could Top the Mighty 'Potter'

by Brandon Gray


Captain America: The First Avenger
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July 21, 2011

Midnight: Captain America: The First Avenger drew $4 million at approximately 2,000 locations in its midnight opening. That compared favorably to the other superhero movies of the summer: X-Men: First Class ($3.38 million), Green Lantern ($3.35 million) and Thor ($3.25 million).

Forecast: This weekend, Captain America: The First Avenger invades close to 6,700 screens at 3,715 locations (including around 2,500 showing the movie in 3D), whileFriends with Benefits grabs around 3,500 screens at 2,926 locations. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will cast a formidable shadow, though, after breaking the opening weekend gross record.

Captain America is the most mainstream superhero making a big screen debut this summer, which presumably gives it an advantage over Thor and Green Lantern. The marketing has taken great pains to make the character relatable and heroic, focusing on his origin as a physically-weak-but-earnest soldier. As well-known as the name and costume are, though, Captain America's powers have always been unclear to the uninitiated, but the movie's advertising has explained that he is a buffed-out super soldier. While that initially appeared to lack the wow factor, the marketing has deftly made it work with the character and World War II setting. Supernatural powers like Thor's and Green Lantern's would have made Captain less grounded, and, generally, a superhero that's not seemingly invincible works best. Captain also has a strong villain in Red Skull, and the marketing has pitched it as a rip-roaring retro adventure. The tagline "Heroes are made in America" was a ballsy move and, hopefully, the movie lives up to it.

Distributor Paramount Pictures said their pre-release tracking pegged Captain America in the range of X-Men: First Class ($55 million) and Thor ($65.7 million). Thor had the early May advantage, when screens are freer and business is more concentrated on the weekends than in late July. However, adjusted for ticket price inflation, past July superhero debuts have fared better: the first X-Men did the equivalent of nearly $80 million, while Fantastic Four (also featuring Captain's Chris Evans) adjusted to $69 million. Another proper comp would be G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, which abandon its "real American hero" roots and debuted to the equivalent of $58 million.

If Captain America can just muster an average start for a major superhero movie, it could dethrone Deathly Hallows Part 2The final Harry Potter made history with its $169.2 million, but, to paraphrase Singin' in the Rain, "all-time smash end of first weekend, all-time flop end of the second." Now, that's an exaggeration, butDeathly Hallows Part 2 is in store for a massive weekend-to-weekend decline, due to the franchise's historic patterns, the movie's daily gross pattern and the fact that its first weekend included a record-breaking $43.5 million midnight Friday launch. The last July PottersHalf-Blood Prince and Order of the Phoenix, fell 62 and 58 percent, respectively, in their second weekends, and their first weekends were muted from Wednesday openings to begin with, not pumped up like Deathly Hallows Part 2's.

Meanwhile, Friends with Benefits is the second "friends-with-benefits" sex comedy of the year after No Strings Attached, which opened to $19.7 million and closed with $70.7 million. The connection extends further than just the premise: No Strings Attached was originally called Friends with Benefits, both movies feature two actresses hot off Black Swan (Natalie PortmanMila Kunis) and two people from That '70s Show (Ashton Kutcher, Kunis), and both made acronyms out of their titles in the ads (NSA and FWB). Just because two movies with the same concept open in close proximity with each other, doesn't mean they necessarily cannibalize each other or that the second movie suffers (ex. Armageddon opened after Deep Impact but made more). Also featuring Justin Timberlake, who has established a comedy persona (through Saturday Night Live, etc.), Friends with Benefitscomes off as a more outrageous version of No Strings Attached and stuffs more gags in its ads, so it should hook up with many, mostly female moviegoers.

In Box Office Mojo's "when will you see it" reader polling, Captain America scored 41 percent for opening weekend, edging out Green Lantern's 39.4 percent and Fantastic Four's 38.3 percent but trailing Thor's 53.6 percent. With 12 percent for opening weekend, Friends with Benefits was stronger than No Strings Attached(10 percent) and What Happens in Vegas (9.6 percent) and behind Bridesmaids (13.4 percent).

The Forecast, July 22-24
1. Captain America: The First Avenger - $62 million
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $48 million
3. Friends with Benefits - $23 million
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $11.5 million
5. Horrible Bosses - $10.5 million

Bar for Success
Captain America needs to at least strike the recent opening range for comparable superhero origin stories, normalized for inflation. That means at least the low $60 million's. It also needs to show greater gumption than the lesser-known superheroes of the summer, but, since long term playability can be greater in the late summer, that doesn't necessarily mean it has to exceed Thor's debut. As for Friends with Benefits, if it can get in spitting distance of No Strings Attached, then it'll be peachy.


Friday Estimate

MovieDistributorGenreGrossChangeThtrs.Per Thtr.Total GrossDays
1 (new) Captain America: The First Avenger Paramount Pictures Action $25,577,000   3,715 $6,885 $25,577,000 1
2 (1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II Warner Bros. Adventure $14,566,000 +29.72% 4,375 $3,329 $240,683,000 8
3 (new) Friends with Benefits Sony Pictures Romantic Comedy $6,867,000   2,926 $2,347 $6,867,000 1
4 (3) Horrible Bosses Warner Bros. Comedy $3,695,000 +47.26% 3,104 $1,190 $74,377,000 15
5 (2) Transformers: Dark of the Moon Paramount Pictures Action $3,505,000 +37.45% 3,375 $1,039 $317,294,000 24
6 (4) Zookeeper Sony Pictures Romantic Comedy $2,800,000 +33.20% 3,215 $871 $53,300,000 15
7 (5) Cars 2 Walt Disney Pictures Adventure $1,700,000 +19.78% 2,668 $637 $172,420,000 29
8 (6) Winnie the Pooh Walt Disney Pictures Adventure $1,600,000 +37.98% 2,405 $665 $14,030,000 8
9 (7) Bad Teacher Sony Pictures Comedy $800,000 -0.18% 2,034 $393 $92,550,000 29
- (new) Daylight Cinema Purgatorio Thriller/Suspense $321   1 $321 $1,854 8

It seems that HP7 will do 45-52m. It won't reach 400m.

It seems that HP7 will do 45-52m. It won't reach 400m.

No way it does that much.$38-43M is the range.Over 70% weekend drop,just as I expected.

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Mordred11 said:
It seems that HP7 will do 45-52m. It won't reach 400m.

No way it does that much.$38-43M is the range.Over 70% weekend drop,just as I expected.

30% increase in Saturday followed by 30% decrease in Sunday would put it at 46.8m for the weekend.

Mordred11 said:
It seems that HP7 will do 45-52m. It won't reach 400m.

No way it does that much.$38-43M is the range.Over 70% weekend drop,just as I expected.

30% increase in Saturday followed by 30% decrease in Sunday would put it at 46.8m for the weekend.

I was wrong,the estimates put it at 48$M.What can I say,I wanted it to fail =(.But still a 72% drop.

Is this only America? You should do world wide. It's currently the 46th highest grossing movie make close to 800 million


Weekend Report: 'Captain America' Rockets to the Top, 'Potter's Bubble Bursts


It was a dollar-spangled debut for Captain America: The First Avenger. Despite being the last to strike, the most famous superhero of Summer 2011's comic-book onslaught delivered the best opening salvo of the bunch, while Harry Potter's last stand fell prey to the adage, "the bigger they are, the harder they fall."

Captain America made an estimated $65.8 million on approximately 7,100 screens at 3,715 locations, edging out fellow Avenger Thor's $65.7 million as well as Green Lantern's $53.2 million and X-Men: First Class's $55.1 million to top the summer's superhero launches. While the gross difference was a sliver, Captain had nine percent greater estimated attendance than Thor, which received more bolstering from 3D (and had IMAX): Captain's 3D share was 40 percent at 2,511 3D locations, compared toThor's 60 percent at 2,737.

In terms of estimated attendance, Captain America's first weekend was slightly ahead of G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra but trailed Fantastic Four and X-Men among past July Marvel Comics kick-offs by sizable margins. Distributor Paramount Pictures' exit polling indicated that 64 percent ofCaptain's crowd was male (about the same as Thor) and 58 percent was 25 years of age and older (skewing younger than Thor's 72 percent).

As moviegoers rallied 'round Captain America, they fled from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. The wizard wunderkind mustered an estimated $48.1 million, but its 72 percent fall was far more severe than past opening weekend record breakers The Dark Knight(53 percent), Spider-Man 3 (62 percent) and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (54 percent) and by far the worst yet for a Harry Potter movie. However, that spoke more to the fan frenzy of Deathly Hallows Part 2's opening day than to the fans' reaction to the movie, and, with a whopping $274.2million tally in ten days,Deathly Hallows Part 2 was still the fastest-grossing Potter yet, topping Deathly Hallows Part I's $219.1 million ten-day run. In fact, Deathly Hallows Part 2 posted the second highest-grossing ten-day opening ever, behind The Dark Knight's $313.8 million, and it ranked 15th in estimated attendance.

Meanwhile, Friends with Benefits got off to an estimated $18.5 million start on around 3,500 screens at 2,926 locations. That was a tad less than fellow "friends-with-benefits" sex comedy No Strings Attached's $19.7 million back in January. Distributor Sony Pictures' research showed that 62 percent of Friends's audience was female (compared to 70 percent for No Strings) and 56 percent was age 25 years and older (versus 60 percent for No Strings).

According to BoxOfficeMojo, HP7 fell more than 65% to 108m this weekend (OS). 

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:  $274,182,000    32.9%
Foreign:  $560,400,000    67.1%
Worldwide:  $834,582,000