I'm not sure how many people here know about Ben Heckendorn (he's a guy who remodels game systems of yore into portables), but every 2 years he does an article on his perspective of how the game industry will change.  He's just posted his predictions for the future for this year, and I thought it pertinent to bring it up here, in the land of the sales-figure-obsessed. :P

http://benheck.com/the-future-of-videogames-part-4-2007-edition/

 My own take on his article is that it seems a bit lacking in research, and heavy in personal opinion.  Then again, I have come to frequent VG Chartz.  I did post my own rebuttal to his article, but I don't know if he'll let it be posted or not, so I'll be posting it here too for posterity's sake. Slightly edited to not adress Mr. Heckendorn directly, of course.

  I personally don't agree with the analysis of the Wii (or the PS3, for that matter).  Bringing up the crash of '84 in particular was an interesting choice, as I seem to recall that one of Ben's past articles pointed out the vast amount of shovelware and "me-too" software that polluted the 2600 library.  I suspect that had a lot more to do with it than anything else.  Yes, non-gamer consumers are fickle, but they don't abandon an expensive purchase quite that easily.  If there's nothing new coming out that they're interested in, then yes, they'll drop it fast.  If the Wii is lacking in top-selling software for several years running (unlikely; Super Mario Galaxy's already making waves at just over 4 million sold in less than 2 months), then I'd be concerned.  But at this stage, it's still not clear.  The first year of any given console is never representative of its future, for better or for worse.  And on one last note, did Ben forget his statement that "the weakest console always wins"?  It's held true pretty consistently for the last 6 generations of consoles, after all...

 Also, the PS3 is unlikely to take off in any remarkable fashion, killer apps or not.  Because while software sells a console, there's more to it than that.  Lots of factors (price of the system, overall popularity compared to the competition, corporate image of the company that makes the console, etc.) can influence the system, and a great game won't guarantee the system will take off.  Case in point: the 360 in Japan got two RPGs from very popular Japanese developers, and this pushed about 300,000 360s in Japan, and get about as many game sales overall each.  On any other console, however, these games would probably be million sellers near-overnight in Japan.  Instead, they're more likely to sell better even in the US than in Japan.  All because the system is not liked there.  A similar effect happened with the Sega Saturn.  Konami made enhanced versions of several of their early PS1 titles for the Saturn (including the cult classic, Symphony of the Night), but they sold worse than their PS1 counterparts.  There's more to consoles taking off than good software.  The buyer has to want the system as well as the game.  And the PS3's not delivering for many gamers, for whatever their reasons.

 Just my own insights on the matter, take them how you will.

 Apologies if somebody else has managed to post about this before me. 

Your right, that was a sloppy article. He just used the generalizations used by every troll and fanboys alike to say why Wii is bad. If you read closely, you might get a Wii Bingo from that article.

It rather surprised me, actually, how quickly the tone of his articles changed. Before 2005, most of his articles are relatively insightful and lacking in fanboyish fervor. But with his 2005 version of that article, he began to have a very anti-Nintendo pro-MS pro-Sony stance. His previous statements were very observant (such as his observation that powerful hardware usually comes in last while the weakest hardware of a generation tends to win out). But now he mostly comes off as being very closed-minded, injecting personal opinion into actual facts and dilluting them in favor of his personal beliefs. The transition surprised and disappointed me, actually...

Rather big article..

It's just so easy to call this guy an idiot. And that's why I will call him an idiot haha.

Hmm, replace his insults for the Wii with the 360/PS3 and youd all be saying how right he is :)

 I don't think his insults apply well to any of the systems.  The 360 and PS3 have their merits as well (though some notable shortcomings, particularly in the price and appeal departments compared to the Wii), and I don't expect either console will be a genuine flop unless MS or Sony drops support for them.  But I also don't forsee either of them garnering the support the Wii has, short of matching its price and appeal (which would cost MS and/or Sony a heck of a lot more than it's costing them to have them be as popular as they are now).

Well done.