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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Wii Reach 100M

Nintendogamer on 11 July 2011
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.



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superchunk on 11 July 2011
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.



Nintendogamer on 11 July 2011
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.

This year is strangest of all, a sidden drop, rather than small drops each year.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

superchunk on 11 July 2011
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.

This year is strangest of all, a sidden drop, rather than small drops each year.

What do you mean? Since 2008's peak the Wii has had rather normal annual drops.



Nintendogamer on 11 July 2011
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.

This year is strangest of all, a sidden drop, rather than small drops each year.

What do you mean? Since 2008's peak the Wii has had rather normal annual drops.


3M drop each year till now it seems to be about 6M now the way it's going or 7M.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Around the Network
archbrix on 11 July 2011

I believe it will be at about 93-95m at the end of this year; it'll do great during the holidays but will then taper off quite a bit in 2012.

So barring another price drop, then I'd guess a few weeks before holiday 2012.



superchunk on 11 July 2011
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.

This year is strangest of all, a sidden drop, rather than small drops each year.

What do you mean? Since 2008's peak the Wii has had rather normal annual drops.


3M drop each year till now it seems to be about 6M now the way it's going or 7M.

 

Console 1st yr 2nd yr % chg 3rd yr % chg 4th yr % chg 5th yr % chg 6th yr % chg
PS2 5.61 16.07 286.5% 21.29 132.5% 19.76 92.8% 16.19 81.9% 18.78 116.0%
Wii 2.93 16.39 559.4% 24.36 148.6% 21.44 88.0% 18.07 84.3% 13 71.9%

 

7th yr % chg 8th yr % chg 9th yr % chg 10th yr % chg
13.66 72.7% 11.09 81.2% 8.93 80.5% 6.06 67.9%

Comparing Wii to PS2, it seems right in line, (with the exception of PS2's odd jump in 6th year, however, that is inline with its 7th year and same rate of decline). However, that jump in its 7th year may allow PS2 to remain higher in the long run.



Nintendogamer on 11 July 2011
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
Nintendogamer said:
superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.

This year is strangest of all, a sidden drop, rather than small drops each year.

What do you mean? Since 2008's peak the Wii has had rather normal annual drops.


3M drop each year till now it seems to be about 6M now the way it's going or 7M.

 

Console 1st yr 2nd yr % chg 3rd yr % chg 4th yr % chg 5th yr % chg 6th yr % chg
PS2 5.61 16.07 286.5% 21.29 132.5% 19.76 92.8% 16.19 81.9% 18.78 116.0%
Wii 2.93 16.39 559.4% 24.36 148.6% 21.44 88.0% 18.07 84.3% 13 71.9%

 

7th yr % chg 8th yr % chg 9th yr % chg 10th yr % chg
13.66 72.7% 11.09 81.2% 8.93 80.5% 6.06 67.9%

Comparing Wii to PS2, it seems right in line, (with the exception of PS2's odd jump in 6th year, however, that is inline with its 7th year and same rate of decline). However, that jump in its 7th year may allow PS2 to remain higher in the long run.


7th year I expect about 8M, so about 100M towards endof 2012 sounds about right.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Alby_da_Wolf on 11 July 2011

Surely before the end of 2012, unless Ninty decides to definitively kill it stopping production before it reaches that goal. If Ninty supports it, it could still reach 120-130M before its end of life.



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superchunk on 11 July 2011
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Surely before the end of 2012, unless Ninty decides to definitively kill it stopping production before it reaches that goal. If Ninty supports it, it could still reach 120-130M before its end of life.


They won't kill production before 2015. It'll keep selling a few million each year just like PS2 for awhile.