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Forums - General Discussion - Will a Nuclear Weapon of Mass Destruction Be Used This Decade?

 

Will there be a Nuclear Weapon of Mass Destruction Detonated on a People Group this Decade?

Yes. It Will Happen 16 10.26%
 
Most likely Yes 20 12.82%
 
Probably Not 99 63.46%
 
No. Impossible. 20 12.82%
 
Total:155
brendude13 said:
Kasz216 said:

Horhito contacted Roosevelt... and was ignored because what he wasn't offering was unconditional surrender. Which was what was required.

Japan was willing to surrender, so long as they got to keep some of the lands they conquered.

Additionally, when he eventually DID surrender, he was almost ambushed by the council and separated from the people.

Your right about the supplies... but wrong about the casualties.

Such large numbers were predicted, not so much because the soldiers and families would fight tooth and nail. (Though there was a decent amount of that)

More so because their upper military echelon refused to be removed from power and would of did anything to keep power, and because the Japanese people were facing immanent starvation and didn't really have the cultural ability to raise up at the time.


Many millions of people were saved only because Japan was forced to surrender and the US came in quick and set up food distribution networks ASAP.

Many many people still starved.

A long protracted isolation campaign waiting for the elites to be touched by the blockade would of been catastrophic and starved tons of people, 20 million not being outlandish when you consider Japanese food supplies were centralized and largely relied on the same methods of transportation that were used for military materials, aka places that would of been bombed.

 

He's wrong on some of the facts, but right on the actual conclusion, that of the three options avaliable... the Atomic bomb was by far the one that cost the least amount of civilian deaths, and ended with japan in the best shape post war.

Haha, thanks for the reasonable reply.

I still don't buy that the atom bomb was the best way out though, the only positive impact it had was intimidation.

Further negotiation could have led to Japan's surrender without the bombs, I am not sure what different terms there were between the treaty Hirohito offered Roosevelt and the one that was agreed on after the bombings, I heard they were very similar. If Roosevelt had just accepted the treaty the first time round then it probably would have been the best case scenario. As long as the land they wanted to keep wasn't on mainland China then Roosevelt should have accepted and that would have saved many more lives.

I can understand that the atomic bombs ended the war quickly, but what makes me feel disgusted is people SUPPORT the bombings and they like to think it was the only way out, it wasn't.

Hirohito's word was final, and he had already considered surrendering when his country was better off just 6 months ago, this is the proof that the atomic bombs were not necessary.

Truman opted out of hard negotion and opted in on mass murder, when he dropped the atomic bombs, he forced Japan into surrendering and at the same time won a dick-waving contest to intimidate other countries.

 

A) Truman couldn't accept the Treaty.  Stalin and Churchill demanded an unconditional surrender as agreed to by Roosevelt.


B) Hirohito could not promise a surrender.  He was offering one and talking about one.  However his word wasn't final.  A ceasefire could only be agreed opon if the entire Japanese cabinent agreed.  Which, they in fact didn't.  Horihito actually didn't have supreme power.

In general, the Japanese believed that if they fought hard enough, and mounted a strong enough fighting force, including actually everyone of military age, the Americans would instead somehow be forced to accept a conditional surrender.

The Terms of that surrender.

1) The preservation of the Military dictatorship.

2) Nobody gets tried for warcrimes.

3) No Troops in Japan

4) They get to Keep Korea and Taiwan.

 

Even those who wanted to surrender right away all agreed with number 1, until the bombs dropped.

The hardliners... still didn't want to surrender actually, even after the second bomb dropped, it still took time, argueing and horihito himself to go out of his way to break the deadlock.  He convinced enough people to get the surrender going, buuuuut also caused 3-4 revolts.



To suggest that there could of been a negotation to produce surrender terms that would of been acceptabe before the dropping of the atomic bombs is very farfetched when you consider that.

I mean, one actual quote from a cabinent member of the peace process is that the atomic bombs were " "a golden opportunity given by heaven for Japan to end the war."

Would you call the deaths of 200,000 of your own people a golden oppurtunity if you thought a peaceful surrender could be reached?  I mean, the sheer absurdity of that statement i think shows how dire and improbable actual surrender was.



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brendude13 said:
Griffin said:

It was no insult, its to do with your clear lack of knowledge on the subject.  Japan would have been completely destroyed if the bombs were not used.  The US would have continued their bombing and laying mines across all Japanese held ports and shipping regions.  The USSR would have continued their agression to mainland Japan where they would have raped and looted the country.  The Japanese would have fought to the last person, every man, woman and child would have fought the allied forces, before millions would take their lives over what they were told would happen to them.  Totals deaths could have gone as high as 20mil. 

And you talk about wanting to save lives, what about the 20million civilians the Japanese killed.  Japan commited some of the worst war crimes known to man. 

And the allied bombing over Japan and Germany was much worse then that of the atomic bombs.  The Atomic bombs saved more then 10 fold what normal bombing would have.

I'm sorry, but who the hell managed to convince you that the entire population of Japan was involved in some suicidal cult? You say I have a lack of knowledge of the subject and then you claim 20 million Japanese civilians were killed? The number of Japanese civilians killed in WW2 doesn't even touch 1 million, the atom bombs could easily make up between a quarter and a half of the Japanese civilian death toll.

Your logic doesn't even make sense, if they were as delusional as you say they were then they wouldn't have surrendered after the atomic bombs were dropped.

Let me show you a picture.

 

This is a Japanese soldier...surrendering...crazy isn't it?

And funnily enough, I can't find any evidence of children fighting the Americans to the death.

And try and deny it all you like, but the Japanese were on the brink of collapse, you claim that every citizen would fight to the death, well that's bullshit, they would need supplies for that, and they didn't. The Japanese could have probably held out for another year before they hard to start fighting with fists. The Japanese leaders were considering peace and preparing for negotiation before the bombs were dropped. After doing some digging around on the internet I have found many sources which say that Hirohito contacted Roosevelt in late 1944 to negotiate surrender with similar terms to the Potsdam Decleration, but it was ignored.

At least you got something right, yes the Soviets were bastards, and yes they did rape and loot areas they invaded. But the dropping of the atom bombs didn't stop them from invading, the Soviets invaded Manchuria THE DAY the atomic bombs were dropped for christs sake.

Yes the Japanese did inexusable things to the Chinese, but like I said before, it doesn't justify the murders of a quarter of a million people.

The allied bombings of Japan and Germany did have a greater death toll, but they weren't "much worse" than Nagasaki and Hiroshima. The stategic bombings were prolonged, it happened over years, death was pretty much instant for the vast majority of people who were caught up in the bombings. Like I said before, I am still disgusted at how many civilians were killed in the allied bombings on Germany, in no way do I support it.

But it isn't even on the same scale as the atom bombs, it's one bomb, which was dropped without warning and it levelled an entire city. Like I said in my other post, the people who were instantly killed were lucky, the people who survived the bombs suffered the most, it is probably the most inhumane way you can die.

You poke fun at my age, you disrespect me and accuse me of not having any knowledge of the subject, and then you claim that the Japanese murdered 20 million of their own citizen's and that the majority of the population of Japan were delusional and suicidal cult members?

I'll make this easy for you, don't reply.

I never said 20mil Japanese were killed, i said they killed 20mil Civilians.  Regarding the other number thats the possible 20mil killed by the full on invasion of Japan which is further support by the post kasz made.

And the post by Kasz talks about much of what i was going to post.  Regarding the "Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps".  And i already posted in this thread before that Japan refused to surrender just one week before the bombs were dropped.  Japan was not going to surrender and was being lead by the military for the most part.


Lets look at the bombing of Tokyo for comparison.

The figure of roughly 100,000 deaths, provided by Japanese and American authorities, both of whom may have had reasons of their own for minimizing the death toll, seems to me arguably low in light of population density, wind conditions, and survivors' accounts. With an average of 103,000 inhabitants per square mile (396 people per Hectare) and peak levels as high as 135,000 per square mile (521 people per hectare), the highest density of any industrial city in the world, and with firefighting measures ludicrously inadequate to the task, 15.8 square miles (41 km2) of Tokyo were destroyed on a night when fierce winds whipped the flames and walls of fire blocked tens of thousands fleeing for their lives. An estimated 1.5 million people lived in the burned out areas

The surreder of Japanese forces was also not common.  Lets look at some numbers

Battle for Tinian.  8,010 killed 313 captured.

Battle for Guam. 18,040+ killed, 485POW's.

Battle for Iwo Jima. 21,844 killed , 216 captured.

Battle for Saipan. 24,000 killed, 5,000 suicides, 921 prisoners,  22,000 civilians dead (mostly suicides)

Now we can look at this the Emperor himself ordering his people to kill themselves.  "At the end of June, Hirohito sent out an imperial order encouraging the civilians of Saipan to commit suicide"

 

I still stand by my post and everything i said.   The using of the atomic weapons was the right thing to do.

 



Kasz216 said:

 

A) Truman couldn't accept the Treaty.  Stalin and Churchill demanded an unconditional surrender as agreed to by Roosevelt.


B) Hirohito could not promise a surrender.  He was offering one and talking about one.  However his word wasn't final.  A ceasefire could only be agreed opon if the entire Japanese cabinent agreed.  Which, they in fact didn't.  Horihito actually didn't have supreme power.

In general, the Japanese believed that if they fought hard enough, and mounted a strong enough fighting force, including actually everyone of military age, the Americans would instead somehow be forced to accept a conditional surrender.

The Terms of that surrender.

1) The preservation of the Military dictatorship.

2) Nobody gets tried for warcrimes.

3) No Troops in Japan

4) They get to Keep Korea and Taiwan.

 

I thought that had conquered  more territories than that.



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

"Last book I read was Brokeback Mountain, I just don't have the patience for them unless it's softcore porn."

                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

"If you cant stand the sound of your own voice than dont become a singer !!!!!"

                                                                               (pizzahut451)

Based on the discussion between Griffin and brendude13 I conclude this:

The next nuclear bomb will be dropped "when it's the right thing to do", let's see which country is the first to think so and when it's time.



The use of nuclear weapon in relatively near future is quite possible even in local conflicts as long as at least one nuclear state involved. It won't lead to any armageddon situation as many people seem to think. One of the scenarios that I see possible here is to launch preemptive TNW attack on some sparsely populated military or civil area as an act of intimidation of opposing party in military conflict. Many military doctrines don't see such scenario as smth exceptional or decisive, but rather operational. In fact, many military objects such as CVBG could be effectively destroyed only with massive launch of TNW-armed missiles. In the case of attack on CVBG radiation pollution caused by such explosion is rather insignificant partly due to small size of the warhead and low altitude of final approach stage of majority of ASMs. Say, single Fukushima is worth almost a hundred of such explosions.



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Traditional nuclear weapon won't be launch anytime soon, they are not fitted for warfare.

Tensions in the world actually arise and will arise mostly for land and their ressources (raw material, gas, water...), the problem with nuke weapon is that they don't allow you to occupy the land you just nuke because you turn it desert. Still, they could only be use at last ressort to avoid people to benefit from the land they just take/occupy. But such invasion will be likely condemmed by the UN and could be sorted before go to such extrem.

And don't think terrorist group can take and use one, they are so complex and traced that it will be complicate to first get one and second plant it where you want to, even more on foreign countries. Terrorist groups are less to be fear for the nuclear weapon they can get than for the "dirty bombs". It will be more easy for them to get the material for these ones and are likely to make much more damage because of the radioactive pollution they could create.



But we must first concentrate ourselves on the way to entertain people, for video games to live. Else, it's a world where sales representative will win, which has as effect to kill creativity. I want to say to the creators all around the world:"Courage, Dare!". Shigeru Miyamoto.

sapphi_snake said:
Kasz216 said:

 

A) Truman couldn't accept the Treaty.  Stalin and Churchill demanded an unconditional surrender as agreed to by Roosevelt.


B) Hirohito could not promise a surrender.  He was offering one and talking about one.  However his word wasn't final.  A ceasefire could only be agreed opon if the entire Japanese cabinent agreed.  Which, they in fact didn't.  Horihito actually didn't have supreme power.

In general, the Japanese believed that if they fought hard enough, and mounted a strong enough fighting force, including actually everyone of military age, the Americans would instead somehow be forced to accept a conditional surrender.

The Terms of that surrender.

1) The preservation of the Military dictatorship.

2) Nobody gets tried for warcrimes.

3) No Troops in Japan

4) They get to Keep Korea and Taiwan.

 

I thought that had conquered  more territories than that.

They did.  They knew they wouldn't be able to keep them all.



Kasz216 said:
sapphi_snake said:
Kasz216 said:

 

A) Truman couldn't accept the Treaty.  Stalin and Churchill demanded an unconditional surrender as agreed to by Roosevelt.


B) Hirohito could not promise a surrender.  He was offering one and talking about one.  However his word wasn't final.  A ceasefire could only be agreed opon if the entire Japanese cabinent agreed.  Which, they in fact didn't.  Horihito actually didn't have supreme power.

In general, the Japanese believed that if they fought hard enough, and mounted a strong enough fighting force, including actually everyone of military age, the Americans would instead somehow be forced to accept a conditional surrender.

The Terms of that surrender.

1) The preservation of the Military dictatorship.

2) Nobody gets tried for warcrimes.

3) No Troops in Japan

4) They get to Keep Korea and Taiwan.

 

I thought that had conquered  more territories than that.

They did.  They knew they wouldn't be able to keep them all.

Well, in that case their request wasn't THAT outrageous.



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

"Last book I read was Brokeback Mountain, I just don't have the patience for them unless it's softcore porn."

                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

"If you cant stand the sound of your own voice than dont become a singer !!!!!"

                                                                               (pizzahut451)

sapphi_snake said:
Kasz216 said:
sapphi_snake said:
Kasz216 said:

 

A) Truman couldn't accept the Treaty.  Stalin and Churchill demanded an unconditional surrender as agreed to by Roosevelt.


B) Hirohito could not promise a surrender.  He was offering one and talking about one.  However his word wasn't final.  A ceasefire could only be agreed opon if the entire Japanese cabinent agreed.  Which, they in fact didn't.  Horihito actually didn't have supreme power.

In general, the Japanese believed that if they fought hard enough, and mounted a strong enough fighting force, including actually everyone of military age, the Americans would instead somehow be forced to accept a conditional surrender.

The Terms of that surrender.

1) The preservation of the Military dictatorship.

2) Nobody gets tried for warcrimes.

3) No Troops in Japan

4) They get to Keep Korea and Taiwan.

 

I thought that had conquered  more territories than that.

They did.  They knew they wouldn't be able to keep them all.

Well, in that case their request wasn't THAT outrageous.


It wasn't outrageous to let they took in a proactive war, which they were losing, and killed and raped millions and forced people to work in labor camps?

That's like saying it wouldn't of been outrageous for Nazi Germany to ask to keep Poland and the concentration camps and avoid war crimes trials and be allowed to stay in power.



Kasz216 said:


It wasn't outrageous to let they took in a proactive war, which they were losing, and killed and raped millions and forced people to work in labor camps?

That's like saying it wouldn't of been outrageous for Nazi Germany to ask to keep Poland and the concentration camps and avoid war crimes trials and be allowed to stay in power.

It was a joke Kasz. I was not being serious.



"I don't understand how someone could like Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky, but not like Twilight!!!"

"Last book I read was Brokeback Mountain, I just don't have the patience for them unless it's softcore porn."

                                                                               (The Voice of a Generation and Seece)

"If you cant stand the sound of your own voice than dont become a singer !!!!!"

                                                                               (pizzahut451)