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Forums - General Discussion - Guess the future of the Human race

Final-Fan said:
SamuelRSmith said:
Kirameo said:
SamuelRSmith said:
Final-Fan said:
SamuelRSmith said:
Final-Fan said:
SamuelRSmith said:
The current financial crisis will ultimately result in the return to hard money, (that is, currency backed by some form of hard value store - like the gold standard of old), first, however, we will have long periods of austerity and inflation (for the most part of this decade).

And then the world economy implodes due to the explosion in the resource(s) the hard money is based on, causing massive devaluation?

No, the value of money increases. If you have a currency backed onto a commodity, and the commidity suddenly increases, if you maintain a tight monetary supply, then the value of money skyrockets, and you'll be able to buy a hell of a lot with a single dollar.

OK, I don't know that much about hard currency, but I find it pretty hard to swallow that actual purchasing power of a gold-backed dollar would increase because there was more gold out there.  Explain plz. 

But I think my initial claim was based on the idea that money supply would automatically increase to match gold supply (or whatever supply), which in retrospect is silly.

You have 5 dollars and 5 ounces of gold. A dollar buys an ounce of gold.

You have 5 dollars and 10 ounces of gold. A dollar buys 2 ounces of gold.

Therefore, the value of the dollar has increased thanks to an increase in the supply of gold.

Wouldn't that just decrease the value of gold?

Yes? And increase the value of money? If you can exchange more of A than you can B compared to previously, then A has increased in value, and B has decreased in value.

Well obviously if you have a shit-ton more gold, then gold will be worth less (all else being equal), therefore a dollar will get you more of it.  That is true for fiat currency as well. 

What we don't see is why the dollar being able to buy more gold translates to the dollar being able to ALSO buy more bread, which you claim with your 'increased purchase power' allegation.  The value change did not happen with the dollar (being worth more) but with the gold (being worth less). 

Basically, I guess it depends on whether you reckon the "value" based solely on its relation to your commodity (gold) that it's based on, or to everything in general.

Ah, yes. Well, no where did I actually mention gold, either in my idea for a hard currency (though, it's easy to jump to the gold conclusion, as this is what is traditionally used), or rapid resource expansion. If all resource supply increases tremendously (which is what I meant by the space exploration = more resources thing), then money will increase in value against everything.

Truthfully, thinking about it, I can see some mistakes in my thinking... as, one of the things that makes gold a good store of value is its relative rarity, and the amount of effort it takes to actually mine something like gold. In fact, I'm now struggling to think how hard money could work in a world of almost limitless resources. Hard money is based on the notion of limited resources, a finite world. Which currency system will be best in the future, with the mass of resources, I have no idea... beyond my realms of understanding.

In fact, all economic theories and systems are based on the notion of scarcity and limits of resources. How the study of economics will evolve if/when we beging pillaging deep space for particular resources, is an interesting thought.



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Millenium said:
Earth loses electricity in most areas which prevents us from playing video games, following this we'll be a lost and confused planet, leaving the reclusion of our homes only to go outside, and eat the flesh of others, as we'll all have gone insane and turned into cannibals.

Believable enough? :p

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Nobody here talked about the way that new spying technologies are evolving.

My prediction:

IN LESS THAN 30 YEARS, every bit of privacy that was left today will be extinguished.

That changes everything.

Also, we need to admit that we have families in this world with much much powers.....
And the FACT is that they will do everything in order to stay in the power.


What I said is not a properly prediction.
I'm just saying that you need to consider these thing when prediction about our future.



Kantor said:

I agree with no apocalypse or ice age, but I'm almost certain that we will have a global government by the end of the century. The current trend is centralisation of power.

Actually the trend is decentralizing. You can see it in terms of nations like Belgium or Britain likely on the brink of total breakup, and decentralization of power has been the trend since WWII, also with technology and greater education as enablers, which you can see with groups like Anonymous, or all the terrorists out there who are making bigger strides in conflict than the major powers, or how crime has become globalized, but in part due to small-time operations

We're entering an era of greater individual power than ever before, and it just depends on how quickly that spreads, or if there isn't some sort of major shock that sets us all back



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SamuelRSmith said:
Final-Fan said:

Well obviously if you have a shit-ton more gold, then gold will be worth less (all else being equal), therefore a dollar will get you more of it.  That is true for fiat currency as well. 

What we don't see is why the dollar being able to buy more gold translates to the dollar being able to ALSO buy more bread, which you claim with your 'increased purchase power' allegation.  The value change did not happen with the dollar (being worth more) but with the gold (being worth less). 

Basically, I guess it depends on whether you reckon the "value" based solely on its relation to your commodity (gold) that it's based on, or to everything in general.

Ah, yes. Well, no where did I actually mention gold, either in my idea for a hard currency (though, it's easy to jump to the gold conclusion, as this is what is traditionally used), or rapid resource expansion. If all resource supply increases tremendously (which is what I meant by the space exploration = more resources thing), then money will increase in value against everything.

Truthfully, thinking about it, I can see some mistakes in my thinking... as, one of the things that makes gold a good store of value is its relative rarity, and the amount of effort it takes to actually mine something like gold. In fact, I'm now struggling to think how hard money could work in a world of almost limitless resources. Hard money is based on the notion of limited resources, a finite world. Which currency system will be best in the future, with the mass of resources, I have no idea... beyond my realms of understanding.

In fact, all economic theories and systems are based on the notion of scarcity and limits of resources. How the study of economics will evolve if/when we beging pillaging deep space for particular resources, is an interesting thought.

Well.  You said that we are going to go to space and therefore have incredible amounts of all resources, when in fact we could only have incredible amounts of resources that you can get in space.  That includes metals:  Gold, iron, nickel, etc.  IIRC, our rare earth metal supply issues would be over. 

But it does NOT mean that we will have, for example, more labor resources.  Or more food resources.  Or more fuel resources.  Unless uranium is accessibly plentiful out there, which I don't know.  In that case, more nuclear power would give more grid power, freeing up other fuel sources for the smaller jobs.  And it would also give SOME boost to food production etc., but it wouldn't change the fact that the value of metals would become WILDLY out of proportion (compared to today) with the rest of ... everything.  That would definitely cause countries that depended on mining metals to economically collapse.  As for the industries themselves, well, someone needs to mine in space.

P.S.  I know you didn't say it would be gold, I just picked gold because I thought you DID say it would be a metal and gold is the metal people have usually used so I just said "gold" for convenience. 



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Final-Fan said:
  

Well.  You said that we are going to go to space and therefore have incredible amounts of all resources, when in fact we could only have incredible amounts of resources that you can get in space.  That includes metals:  Gold, iron, nickel, etc.  IIRC, our rare earth metal supply issues would be over. 

But it does NOT mean that we will have, for example, more labor resources.  Or more food resources.  Or more fuel resources.  Unless uranium is accessibly plentiful out there, which I don't know.  In that case, more nuclear power would give more grid power, freeing up other fuel sources for the smaller jobs.  And it would also give SOME boost to food production etc., but it wouldn't change the fact that the value of metals would become WILDLY out of proportion (compared to today) with the rest of ... everything.  That would definitely cause countries that depended on mining metals to economically collapse.  As for the industries themselves, well, someone needs to mine in space.

P.S.  I know you didn't say it would be gold, I just picked gold because I thought you DID say it would be a metal and gold is the metal people have usually used so I just said "gold" for convenience.

Well, I've seen articles and videos suggesting that there may be fuel resources.

Labour demand per dollar generated is a constantly falling figure, thanks to technoligical and knowledge advancements. Not only that, but we have a vastly greater labour supply than demand at this time, which is why we have over 2 billion people in poverty. With these two things in mind, I think it's going to be way beyond this century for us to be having a labour supply shortage... if ever.

If it's profitable to mine space (which, eventually, it will be), the markets will produce the firms to do it. As for countries dependant on mining for their economies, I raise two points: 1 - purely specializing the economy on mining is a distater waiting to happen, as you're guaranteed to run out, at some point. 2 - We're talking 30, 40 years, at the least... odds are, very few, if any, countries will be counting for mining taking up a major part of their economy.



Everyone predicting these horrible apocalyptic disasters: humanity has been through many crises before. Our current one doesn't come close to most of them. We have pulled through every time, and I don't see why a race that averted nuclear war, defeated fascism and Communism and, hell, stopped damaging the ozone layer, would suddenly be killed by global warming.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

what I expect in the future is much brighter:

* Robots
* More nudity
* Hoverboards
* High recreational sex
* Soma for everyone!

Then it will get bad

Governments will see genetic damage from pollution, this will cause nanotechnology programs in order to repair the situation. but eventually a pair of female twins with extraordinary power will trigger a nuclear war which will bury civilization.

Civilization will then rebuild itself, only to be ruled under the Holy Empire, who will work to resurrect the fleshy body of God, who we will discover is an alien lifeform which came to earth millennia ago, and has controled the course of evolution ever since. People will have their bodyparts converted into a giant body for God. God's purpose will be fulfilled, to resurrect as a living weapon capable of destruction on a stellar scale.

Then we're f***ed.

 

Coronation Street will then go off the air sometime after this happens.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

It is going to get much worse before it gets better, but it will get better.

All I know is, something will replace the internet, a brand new disease will replace AIDS, and we will be that much more antisocial, yet politically correct.



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Jumpin said:

what I expect in the future is much brighter:

* Robots
* More nudity
* Hoverboards
* High recreational sex
* Soma for everyone!

Then it will get bad

Governments will see genetic damage from pollution, this will cause nanotechnology programs in order to repair the situation. but eventually a pair of female twins with extraordinary power will trigger a nuclear war which will bury civilization.

Civilization will then rebuild itself, only to be ruled under the Holy Empire, who will work to resurrect the fleshy body of God, who we will discover is an alien lifeform which came to earth millennia ago, and has controled the course of evolution ever since. People will have their bodyparts converted into a giant body for God. God's purpose will be fulfilled, to resurrect as a living weapon capable of destruction on a stellar scale.

Then we're f***ed.

 

Coronation Street will then go off the air sometime after this happens.

 

This God loses half of it's energy every turn, so we will just wait a bit healing, till it will have enough HP to be destroyed by a single hit from ChuChu.