I've seen people saying that graphics won't advance at all, they'll only be displayed at a higher resolution (1080p), run at 60FPS and maybe improve AA and textures slightly.

I've seen some other people saying that graphics will advance and next-gen games will be a generational jump.

What do you think?

I'm in the group of people who believe next-gen graphics will be a generational jump.

Why?

I think consoles will have a GPU as powerful as a GTX480 or GTX580. You may be saying that current PCs already have that and the games are not a generational jump in graphics but just the same game with better textures, 1080p or more, 60 FPS, 8xAA, Tessellation (sometimes), etc. So why do I think that?

The answer is obvious. PC games, even if they're lead developed on PC and then ported to consoles, are made to work on a wide range of different hardware... and that includes consoles. The games made on PC must work on the lowest common denominator (consoles) instead of only being playable on a PC with 3x GTX580s. The consoles will play that game with low-medium settings with some effects turned off, and the PC with 3x GTX580s will play the game with highest settings at a higher resolution and higher FPS with all effects turned on... even though that PC should be able to handle something that would be considered CGI compared to that game, it won't because it won't really take advantage of it.

Remember what Epic said about their Samaritan Tech Demo? it was running in real-time using 3x GTX580, they created it in a few weeks and said they believed they could get it running in only 1 GTX580 if they optimized it.

Now, that tech demo looks better than any game on PC, it's close to Final Fantasy Versus XIII's CGI cutscenes... but why aren't there games that look like that on PC even though the hardware exists and many people have PCs with a GTX580 or better?

Well, the games have to run on consoles... and not only that, even if they don't have to run on consoles they also have to run on worse videocards than the GTX580. If someone went ahead and made a game with the Samaritan tech demo graphics, optimized to run on that card at only 1280x720 and 30FPS, how do you think it would run on the rest of the PCs? maybe even a PC with the same specs as the one with the GTX580 but with a GTX570 would run it at 20FPS or lower. The game could only be sold to people with the highest end PCs on the market and the rest would be left out. They can't afford to do that, that's the reason why they don't do it even though it's already possible.

Now, if next-gen consoles (WiiU, the next Xbox and PS4) have a GTX580, that will be the new lowest common denominator... games will be made to take advantage of that video card (unlike what's happening today on PC) and will look like the Samaritan Tech Demo... or better because unlike PCs, developers have low access to the hardware on consoles... so if they could get that working on a GTX580 on PC, imagine what they can do on consoles. After that, PC hardware will improve and will run those same games at a higher res, with better textures, more anti-aliasing, etc, just like what's happening today.

Do you remember what PC versions of PS1 games looked like on the best PCs available at that time, a year before the PS2 was released? I remember the PC version of Tomb Raider: The Last Revelation had better textures, higher resolution, less jaggies, etc... people probably thought that's what PS2 games would look like... but instead of going for a higher res, more AA, etc, they went for a generational jump and remained at a simillar res.

Do you remember what the PC versions of PS2 games looked like a year or 2 before the Xbox 360 was released? They ran at a higher resolution, with less jaggies, better textures, more effects, probably with shadows that weren't present in their console counterpart, etc. Again, people probably thought that's what PS3/Xbox 360 games would look like... but instead of going to 1650x1200 or 1920x1080/1200 and 60 FPS, they went for 1280x720 and 30 FPS or lower to make a generational jump in graphics...

Now, what do the PC versions of Xbox360/PS3 games look like today? Look at The Witcher 2 or Crysis 2 for example... yeah, They run at a higher resolution, with less jaggies, probably more AF if the console version runs with less than 16xAF, better draw distances, better textures, sometimes tessellation, depth of field, etc... what do you think will happen? will they just upgrade to that or will developers shoot for a new generational leap in graphics and history will repeat itself?

After all, they're already making versions of character models with higher polycount than what consoles can handle and downgrade them to make it work on consoles... the same goes for textures and other assets... and other things like dynamic lightning and tessellation will make development faster and easier... and cheaper.

Even if they use a GTX560, it should suffice to make games look like the Samaritan Tech Demo if they keep the same resolution and FPS (1280x720@30FPS) or just a little bit higher like 1366x768 since they have low level access to the hardware and they'll optimize everything for it and develop with it as the lowest common denominator :P.

As good as FFXIII's CGi cut scenes

Realistically as good as the Tri-Ace tech demo shown recently

I hope to eventually pay a visit to the uncanny valley.

Crysis 1 1080p 30fps No AA on all consoles except for wiiu is what you should expect.

This. Sorry guys. There won't be a 580GTX in your xbox or ps anytime soon. Even in 2 years the card will be too expensive.

And FF13 Cutscene stylish graphics? Are you god damn serious? Even with an 8core and plenty of ram u need around 10 minutes to render a 1minute clip. Real time this just won't work.

Are you talking to me or Darth?

Minimum expectation:

Maximum Expectation: One to One real life graphics. :)

Looking at what it takes to run Crysis 2 with its highest detail settings, at a resolution of 1080p while maintaining a frame-rate of 60fps, and comparing that to the perceived difference in quality compared to the console version, I highly doubt we're going to see a generational jump in detail unless the consoles output at 720p @30fps, are remarkably expensive ($600+), or aren't released for several years (2014/2015).

Visuals on par with today's CGI, Avatar like visuals, at the minimum, they (sony/microsoft) would be smart to take a near generational advantage over nintendo once again visually, and improve on user interface/price/motion/innovations that could push consoles....

I've said PS4 would release in april of 2014, and I will continue to say that (tis was mon prediction in 2007), Wii U if it stays as it is hardware wise, would help keep PS3/360 on the market for a couple of more years, unless microsoft decides release Xbox "next" late next year or 2013..

atm though, consoles are "almost" perfect, visuals don't really need to be upgraded much, but knowing how sony jumped a gen with PSvita, from PSP, they'd do the same with PS4 over PS3.... not sure about microsoft, but since crytek is on them, it should at least be ahead of Wiiu, and maybe a gen ahead of 360, which would be ideal for them

Sony would be smart to stick with blu ray, since it's starting to take off, by 2014, the format should be the main "physical" format for media, it would also be cost efficient, and allow them to launch a $399 console with visuals on par with things like AVATAR in 2014, but that's if they decide to take a jump like PS3 did with PS2...

(realize when 360 launched, it was the most powerful gaming hardware on the market, including PC for a bit, which was impressive, console launched at $399/$499)

I think they'll have graphics of the Samaritan Tech demo at 1280x720 or 1366x768 and 30FPS... but they'll cost 500 to make and will be sold at 399 with a 100 dollars loss. That's close to CGI graphics.