HappySqurriel said:
I don't disagree, but I think the "Next Generation" will be an extension of the current generation in a lot of ways, and not really a "Next Generation" in the way people have become accustomed to thinking of a next generation system.
I actually anticipate that the vast majority of publishers will continue releasing the same games on the current HD systems that they're releasing on the next generation systems for several years; and the difference will be similar to the difference in playing a PC game in low detail at 720p @30fps compared to playing the same game in high detail at 1080p @60fps.
While there will probably be some stand-out games (in particular first party games), I'm not expecting much of a revolutionary change in graphics for at least the first several years after release.
People will disagree with me, but I expect that the suggested "50% more powerful" claim about the Wii U is a misunderstanding of what was said; and I suspect a developer said that the Wii U was half a generation ahead of the PS3. This (more or less) falls in line with what has been rumoured about the Wii U, and it would have been pretty bleeding edge system if it was released in 2010. This hardware is actually fairly well suited to how I expect the next generation to play out; the graphical difference between it an the other next generation systems will be minimal because they will mostly be playing advanced versions of HD games, and as the HD consoles die out the Wii U will likely become the "Base" platform with the other next generation consoles getting advanced versions of those games.
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The next generation may indeed be a just an extension, or "general advancement" of this generation. I developed this "console theory" some time ago, prior to the launch of this generation. The theory goes like this: Every other console generation is an experimental, advancing generation, each following generation is the "perfecting" of the advancement, largely starting with the 3rd (NES/Master System) generation.
The NES was the bold new experiment. New controller, new gameplay styles, new games, new genres, new focus, etc. It was no longer about coin-eating arcade games and the best possible translations, it was about the first games built as great, in-depth home experiences. The SNES/Genesis (16-bit or 4th Generation) was the perfecting of the evolutions from the NES era.
The 32/64-bit Generation, in which the Playstation, N64, and Saturn made bold new advances, and reinvented gaming again (disk-based gaming the norm, analog control, 3-D polygonal gaming, cutscenes, etc). The following, 5th Generation, with the Dreamcast, PS2, Xbox, and GameCube was the optimization of that generation.
Prior to this generation's launch, I felt that it was "advancement/evolution" time again. I was disappointed, initially, to see that Microsoft and Sony didn't really advance or evolve aside from simply ramping up the hardware specs of their machines. The Wii and DS led the advancement, and the Xbox360 and PS3 followed suit, but all of this stuff is imperfect.
This next generation will be the "optimization" generation again. The kinks will be worked out or understood for Kinect, Move, and the Wiimote. It doesn't need to truly advance, just optimize and perfect. Frankly, I feel that this is the purpose of the next generation. This generation featured all manner of stumbling blocks as it gradually hobbled into some proto-evolutionary form, but the next generation will really show us how it's done (if my theory continues to work).
My theory is largely based on the following criteria:
- New/different control input. (NES controller, Zapper--N64 controller, Dual Shock--Wiimote, Kinect, Move)
- Different way to perceive games and gaming. (Side scrolling adventures, platformers, saving game progress--3D polygonal worlds, cutscenes, immersion--online play, motion play, downloadable games, Western RPG's)
- Technological leap. (NES to SNES, relatively small. SNES to N64, relatively big.)
Your notion of the Wii U potentially being a "base" platform from which the ports are built is probably not too far off. It conflicts with standard gaming history a bit. Typically the following are true: The first to market is never the market leader, the most powerful is never the market leader, and the most popular and somewhat weaker system is the one which multiplatform games are initially built for.
The 3DO (or Saturn) did not witn the 32/64-bit generation (granted, it launched waaaayy too soon), and the vastly more powerful N64 didn't rule it. The comfortable middle ground "Playstation" did with the highest sales and best overall hardware to make multiplatform titles.
The Genesis did not win it's generation as the SNES eventually overtook it in sales. The most powerful of this generation was the Neo-Geo or Atari Jaguar depending on where you place the Jaguar in history. I've seen it placed in both the 16-bit era, and the 32/64-bit era.
The Dreamcast did not win it's generation, and the most powerful machines, the Xbox and GameCube, did not win either. The comfortably placed PS2 handily won, and was where pretty much all multi-plafrorm games were optimized.
The NES did launch before the Master System and TurboGrafx-16 (and yes, I've seen the TG-16 included in the 16-bit generation at times), but the more powerful machines from Sega and NEC never toppled Nintendo's VCR-ish box.
Essentially, it's more cost-effective to build a multi-platform game on a weaker system and simply port it elsewhere (making improvements if time and/or money allow) than it would be to optimize on a more powerful system, then have to backtrack to cram the same game on a weaker system--something Capcom discovered when porting Resident Evil 4 to the PS2 after it had been optimized for the GameCube's superior hardware.
And it's simply more logical to make multiplatform games on the system with the highest sales, which has generally been a system that is not the most powerful: NES, Playstation, PS2, Xbox360...
Holy crap, this is way too much to put in a simple post.
I guess I could've just written, "You're post makes very good sense to me and follows in line with my general theory on console generations," while adding: If the Wii U is indeed more like a "halfway to the next tier" (rather like the Dreamcast was), instead of "just 1.5 times better," then I'll be singing it's praises like... well, like I did for the GameCube.
I would really like to see the Wii U give me ample reason to have a Nintendo system as my core console again. These days, it's all about the Xbox 360 for me, where before, it was hands-down, the GameCube and SNES.