ministaff said:
All of you ps3 fans are way too optimistic. you all thought that the ps3 would out sell Wii in its first year but it didn't. you all thought that ps3 would outsell Wii after the price drop but it didn't. you all thought that the ps3 would outsell Wii after during its first and second Christmas but it didn't. and now you've all given up on it selling more than the Wii and lowered your standards by saying it will sell more than the 360, saying once the line-up of new games come out then ps3 will dominate. but that "new line-up" that you are referring to SUCKS! i want somebody to post a list of new games for the ps3 that are coming out in 2008 and i don't want any random games, only the ones you truly think will be good.
my predictions: by the end of march wii will have sold as much as ps3 and 360 combined. |
This is an excellent post except for your prediction which is quite far of:
It won't happen, unless you meant march 2009 in which case you should have precised a year.
As of today according to VGChartz the Wii sold 18.52 millions.
The PS3 + 360 sold 8.41+15.69 = 24.1 millions.
So to close the gap the Wii would have to outsell both of them combined by 5.49 millions consoles in 3 months and 1 week. With a production of 1.8 millions a month that's barely 5.85 millions (assuming that nintendo managed last week's number without airshipping some ofthis week's supply otherwise it's lower) so as long as 360+PS3 sell at least 360k consoles worldwide in 3 months and a week (about 15k each per week worldwide) the Wii will not have sold as much as PS3 + 360 combined.
I personally think it will eventually, maybe even this year (though if it does this year it probably would be so close to xmas that it would lose it at xmas and regain it in early 09), but this early this year is extremely highly improbable unless Nintendo can prodce many more consoles that they told us they were capable of.
Of course you are entitled to your opinion and it is your prediction but if I was you I wouldn't accept any bet on it.
@X-man: While the playstation brand still is in the black overall, at the rate the PS3 has been losing money the past 18 months (yeah, the PS3 was released 14 months ago but there were big R&D expenditures to engineer Cell with IBM and Toshiba) I would be careful about not bragging about it as it is likely that the PS3 will manage to wipe out most of these 11-12 years of profits in a very short time. Your position is a bit like saying:
"sure my favorite sport team keeps losing these days but look at all the trophies they won 20-30 years ago, overall they are still a great team".
Which is a rather strange position to take.
@Krik
"I can't comment on the $1 loss on PS3 vs $3 profit in TVs* argument since there is no official information about that at all."
Actually you can, as your own post shows@ "Sony reported a profit of $930M on their Electronics division and a loss of $841M on their Game division"
You forgot electronic and Blu-Ray from Slorgnet's post and TV is part of Electronics so let's compare 3x game division against electronic:
Games division: 3x($841M) = ($2523M)
Electronics: $930M
So Blu-Ray would have to make a profit of $1593M for Slorgnet's theory to hold up for last quarter (more actually as the PS2 is definitely profitable and the PSP is probably so or at least at break even after 3 years). I do not believe for an instant that the meager sales of Blu-Ray can bridge that gap to make Slorgnet's theory true for last quarter.
Now my guess is that Slorgnet meant for his theory to apply in the future and it might still happen but given the fate of DVD-Audio and SACD it is foolish to pin one's hope on either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray until they have proven themselves to be more viable in the market then either high definition audio formats.
