Overhead, production, taxes, etc....are the same costs regardless of the consoles your studio supports.  Minimizing the learning curve factor appears to be one of the goals of the console.   Utilizing standards well established on the PC and current HD consoles ensures developers will ease into development rather quickly. 

Also the fact that a lot of the growing pains of the early days of the HD consoles has passed.   Hardware upgrade costs, establishing a larger art department, and other one time costs to enable HD development have already been undertaken so the existence of another HD capable console won't have the same initial financial impact as 2005/2006 did.

Mulitconsole ownership is at best 15% of the market.  You apply the 15% to your projected individual console sales milestones to get your cannibalized sales data.   But you have more to fear from other console titles of the same genre than you do from multiconsole ownership.

I believe that at first Project Cafe will have it`s share of ports - just to see how big is the core market on the console, if nothing else. If in the first year or so the core market is there, then things will look good for Nintendo.

If it gets big names like Call of Duty, Metal Gear Solid or Final Fantasy, that will work as a motivation for other studios to tag along.
Imagine that this E3 Nintendo announces itinerations of all these franchises... :D

Speaking of imagining, lots of people talk about Zelda being converted to Café - which i don`t believe it will happen -  but what if it`s not Zelda, but Dragon Quest X that gets to migrate to Cafe? Imagine now that Dragon Quest X is a launch title for Cafe in Japan...

That would be awesome!

Im no accountant but from my understanding of internal accounting, overhead simply means costs that cannot be directly trace to a product/product line. Companies do however assign these overheads to product/product lines using some methods like ABC for the purpose of measuring consumption patterns which in turns influence decisions such as whether to invest in a new product. Rent will be the same for all products but other overheads like electricity, admin, sales, & market costs will certainly increase if a café version is developed and you can attribute these additional  overhead costs to a specific product line as I have explained above.  So again, we don’t know these costs and therefore you cannot pass on your calculation using random figures as fact to support your opinion. 10,000 sales only to break even, cummon you got to be more realistic than that.

You do however have a point with regards to the established HD development methods, processes, infrastructure. Well will see next year wont we.

Can you provide me with a source with that 15% figure.

Sure you will get some increased costs in overhead with more electricity usage though those costs are minimal compared to the costs associated with the initial costs requirements to move from 6th generation development to HD consoles.   I could actually calculate the increase in extra energy usage given the data of electricity costs is available online as well as other factors.   Overall though, the impact is minimal and more to the point, I gurantee you that not a single studio in the world would base their decision to support Project Cafe on the grounds of increased electric bills and what have you.

The 15% figure is industry accepted through various internal and external polls.  I'm in the media so these little facts tend to become obsorbed through the years.

While the 10,000 unit break even figure sounds ridiculous, I provided the basic figures used in calculating such figures.  Porting to a machine that has modern shaders and runs code well (we'll leave out the costs of porting the game engine since that would be a 1 time cost) would be very simple and quick...comparatively speaking.  Costs are essentially staff salary and $80,000 is the current industry average.  Let's just say for the sake of argument that it takes twice as long to port...that's still just 20,000 units.   And say it takes twice as long as twice the staff...still just 40,000 units.  Even if you factor in overhead like electricity bills (500 extra unit sales should easily cover it)....hell, we'll round it all up to 50,000 units just to be safe.   I think it's OK to say that publishers will expect Project Cafe owners will pick up an extra 50,000 copies of ported titles.  Don't you?

There is no reason why all 3rd party games can't be released on Project Cafe, except for developer ignorance

Nintendo already has close ties with the Japananese 3rd parties-- especially when it comes to the DS.  Nintendo needs to fortify their weakness, and that is that they have not solidified strong relationships with Western developers like Bioware, Rockstar, DICE, and Bungie.  If they can get these kind of top projects on their console they should be a big success.  Nintendo will also lure in some Japanese companies, but the Japan market is not as important as the Western one. 

Obligatory gif:

LOL!

OT: Japanese developers support is almost guaranteed, so their focus on western developers is a good and very needed move. If they can get the same multiplats as Sony and Microsoft they will have a change with the "hardore" gamers.

Exclusives won't come just yet, they need a big enough base of gamers to think about that. And then add some money from Nintendo to persuade developers to do it.

Either way, it remains to be seen.

With how the market has changed over the past generation I think Project Cafe will (probably) do alright when it comes to third party games ...

For the most part, publishers are trying to target as many platforms as they can with games to manage the risk associated with their large game budgets. While I could be wrong, I suspect this will mean that most third party games will be released to all consoles and the PC; and many games might even be delivered to Tablet PCs, smart phones and handheld systems.