HappySqurriel said: leo-j said: @happy Well considering that heavenly sword is about to become a million seller on the ps3, and Uncharted is nearing 600k I dont think I should be dissapointed.. Besides KZ2 has a much larger amount of hype compared to other exclusives. Back in August these games were going to be AAA multi-million selling games and able to match Halo 3 and Super Mario Galaxy, and today nearly 1 Million or 600,000 units meets expectations? Saying a game will be good, or sell reasonably well is much different than hyping a game like Heavenly Sword, Lair and Uncharted were.

And more importantly they were going to be the system sellers that reversed the PS3's fortunes. In that regard, they failed. The PS3 has pulled out of it's tailspin only due to it's price cuts. It does not yet have that killer app to persuade gamers that now is the time to open their wallets. The 360 had it with Halo 3. Wii had it with, amazingly enough, WiiSports (hard to say the effect of Mario Galaxy or other games given that the console's demand hasn't noticably fluctuated since launch). GTA4 might do it for the PS3, assuming that PS2 owners won't know or care that it'll be on the 360, or that the 360 will have extra content. 

Sony has effectively cut the umbilical cord that was their brand loyalty. The response to the pricing was very much outrage from what I observed. Not reluctant acceptance real outrage. Many former or current PS2 owners felt a real sense of abuse. That Sony was expecting them to spend so much. Further more there was a real frustration with the fact that the new console was a glorified way of sneaking a proprietary format into the market. Finally Sony has abandoned backwards compatibility forcing consumers to abandon a feature that is an accepted standard in gaming now.

I question specifically how much brand loyalty Sony has left in the market. I fear it is not as verbose as many posters believe. Sony has obviously did a great deal of damage to it. Further more there is the real question for consumers as to why stay loyal given what Sony has done over the past year. Backwards compatibility was a good reason, but that reason no longer exists. The formats are stalemated generating reluctance, and other brands are being very successful at market penetration.

While some point to the other regions as a example of the power of brand loyalty. I ask this why is Nintendo beating Sony in those regions. Why are they losing to Nintendo in every region. Why are they losing to Microsoft in North America, and how come Microsoft in Europe isn't utterly destroyed. Even Japan wasn't to keen on the brand for most of the year, and they have the home field advantage in Japan. With the brand loyalty supposedly has this shouldn't happen at all. They shouldn't have to fight this hard to compete at all.

I think the brand loyalty is very much mythical. There isn't exactly any proof that it actually exists or affects sales in any significant manner. Had it existed the company that had it seems to have squandered it. During these discussions its often assumed that most PS2 owners were happy with their console or developed an attachment to the brand.

Thats hardly logical they may simply prefer the console with the most games, the lowest prices, and the easier controls. In other words they would play any console that provided those regardless of brand name. The fact that for a time the PS2 fit the bill, and still does to a large part doesn't mean the consumer really cared. Many consumers buy many things regardless of brand name. When I buy a movie I am not usually checking for studio names.

I really want to read some proof to the effect that this loyalty has been tracked and actually exists. When I read how Europeans buy products, because of brand names. I am really floored what they don't compare the merits of the products at all? To be honest that sounds like a form of mild retardation to me, and I just can't bring myself to believe that any person regardless of region has some faith based brand name fetish. This just doesn't ring true to me.

misterd said: HappySqurriel said: leo-j said: @happy Well considering that heavenly sword is about to become a million seller on the ps3, and Uncharted is nearing 600k I dont think I should be dissapointed.. Besides KZ2 has a much larger amount of hype compared to other exclusives. Back in August these games were going to be AAA multi-million selling games and able to match Halo 3 and Super Mario Galaxy, and today nearly 1 Million or 600,000 units meets expectations? Saying a game will be good, or sell reasonably well is much different than hyping a game like Heavenly Sword, Lair and Uncharted were. And more importantly they were going to be the system sellers that reversed the PS3's fortunes. In that regard, they failed. The PS3 has pulled out of it's tailspin only due to it's price cuts. It does not yet have that killer app to persuade gamers that now is the time to open their wallets. The 360 had it with Halo 3. Wii had it with, amazingly enough, WiiSports (hard to say the effect of Mario Galaxy or other games given that the console's demand hasn't noticably fluctuated since launch). GTA4 might do it for the PS3, assuming that PS2 owners won't know or care that it'll be on the 360, or that the 360 will have extra content.

@Passenger57

Okay so we already know playing catch up is hard. I can hope for the ps3 to have success but who knows what the future holds? It can only do three things. Get worse, stay the same or get better.

@misterd

I understand what you're saying. I guess some people need some killer application to buy but I just play games I like. Before I bought a ps3 I didn't even know about heavenly sword and resistance. I just got it because I kept thinking my ps2 was going to stop working any day now. Anyway I don't understand the attack on the price cut. Isn't that what people wanted? Shouldn't they have cut it to sell more? I can agree with you ps3 haters that we can't say every great game will sell millions because with all these consoles sold I really have no idea what my fellow owners are buying. But I do believe that by the end of 2008 if the ps3 owners numbers are up to like 17million games that you see sell 500,000 copies in three months will probably jump to 1 milllion in 3 months.

@passenger

Just 2 weeks ago the ps3 was 47%of the X360 install base

Now the ps3 is within 58% of of its install base. And market share went from 18% to almost 20%

The ps3 is catching up.

Stats87 said: sieanr said: Why do people persist with the whole "MGS4 is a killer app" banter? The series has been seeing diminishing sales and its not something that appeals to the mainstream. The only place you see MGS being touted as such is gaming forums, especially ones filled with Japanophiles. diminishing based off one game? You realize it is often the case that the sequel doesn't do as well as the one before it for that generation. (of course there are exceptions) MGS2 sold 7 Million units, whereas MGS3 sold 4 mill and Substinence sold an additional 1 Mil. A key difference is that MGS2 was hyped to no end, MGS3....not so much. (i didn't even know it was released when it first came out) MGS4 reminds me more of MGS2, it is the first on the console and people are very curious as to how it will play out. I also see it having a huge marketing campaign/push by Sony. Lastly, MGS fans are definitley out there, MGS:PO/PO+ has sold well over a million on a handheld that is known for craptacular software sales.

Did I say MGS lacked a following? Oh right, I said it had a dedicated fanbase of mostly hardcore players, but almost no mass market appeal.

Early on MGS4 could've come out and drawn those hardcore fans to the console, giving its hardware sales a nice boost. But at this point its looking like it will hit by the end of this year, if then, and that is so late in the game that the hardcore gamers are no longer the ones making the big dent in hardware sales.

Like I said originally MGS4 has no mainstream appeal - and thats what sells consoles after the first year or two.

BTW, I'm pretty sure MGS3 sold less than MGS2 because of the batshit insane story from 2 and Raiden. Taking an iconic figure like snake, and then sticking the player in charge of a comparatively unlikable character tends to alienate your fanbase, especially when its an effeminate character in America. Throw in an incomprehensible story and add some competition to the stealth/action game market and its no wonder why MGS3 sold less than 2.

PS3 will pass the 360. It will happen ;)

No one here would believe the PS3 will be close to 9M by end of 2007.

PS3 will sell more than the 360 next year, that is my prediction. I strongly believe PS3 passing 360 in others by the end of next year. Also the NA gap will shrink. All my friends that own 360s say they will eventually buy a PS3 next year, some for LBP others for MGS4 or FFXII.

Lets look at the current numbers for 2007:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Jan 2007 to 23rd Dec 2007:

Console	PS3	X360
Total	7,176,184	7,732,127
America	2,616,869	5,042,002
Japan	1,166,186	249,245
Total Others	3,393,129	2,440,880

 So, this year the PS3 outsold the 360 in Others by 953k. The current gap is 1593k and I believe next year with 3 more months the PS3 (PS3 was launched in March) and a Euro 400 price it will eat that 1.6M lead easy.

In Japan we know how it goes, PS3 is leading the 360 by 917k. Next year I expect the PS3 to beat the 360 by 1200k or more. If MGS4 and FFXIII are successful in Japan that 1.2M might grow to 2M easy.

So, I expect others+japan to for PS3 with a lead of at least 2.8M.  

NA is where the PS3 is having more trouble but from my friends I know lots of people are holding off, not staying away from the console. This year the 360 outsold the PS3 close to 2:1, with a nice 2426k lead. This was the Halo 3 year and also the PS3 was selling like crap at 500-600 for almost 10 months so I believe next year the 360 lead will be smaller, much smaller, down to around 1M or so.

So, I see the PS3 outselling the 360 very easily in 2008.

PS: These are my expectations. I cannot predict the future but it is possible and I see it happening. 

Blaiyan said: misterd said: HappySqurriel said: leo-j said: @happy Well considering that heavenly sword is about to become a million seller on the ps3, and Uncharted is nearing 600k I dont think I should be dissapointed.. Besides KZ2 has a much larger amount of hype compared to other exclusives. Back in August these games were going to be AAA multi-million selling games and able to match Halo 3 and Super Mario Galaxy, and today nearly 1 Million or 600,000 units meets expectations? Saying a game will be good, or sell reasonably well is much different than hyping a game like Heavenly Sword, Lair and Uncharted were. And more importantly they were going to be the system sellers that reversed the PS3's fortunes. In that regard, they failed. The PS3 has pulled out of it's tailspin only due to it's price cuts. It does not yet have that killer app to persuade gamers that now is the time to open their wallets. The 360 had it with Halo 3. Wii had it with, amazingly enough, WiiSports (hard to say the effect of Mario Galaxy or other games given that the console's demand hasn't noticably fluctuated since launch). GTA4 might do it for the PS3, assuming that PS2 owners won't know or care that it'll be on the 360, or that the 360 will have extra content. @Passenger57 Okay so we already know playing catch up is hard. I can hope for the ps3 to have success but who knows what the future holds? It can only do three things. Get worse, stay the same or get better. @misterd I understand what you're saying. I guess some people need some killer application to buy but I just play games I like. Before I bought a ps3 I didn't even know about heavenly sword and resistance. I just got it because I kept thinking my ps2 was going to stop working any day now. Anyway I don't understand the attack on the price cut. Isn't that what people wanted? Shouldn't they have cut it to sell more? I can agree with you ps3 haters that we can't say every great game will sell millions because with all these consoles sold I really have no idea what my fellow owners are buying. But I do believe that by the end of 2008 if the ps3 owners numbers are up to like 17million games that you see sell 500,000 copies in three months will probably jump to 1 milllion in 3 months.

Different people have different reasons to get consoles. Many of us (those on the boards) tend to be loyal to certain brands  -Nintendo in my case, Sony/Sega for my wife- and will get those consoles content that good titles will come. But many people need a compelling game that justifies the hundreds of dollars demanded by a new console (for me, it was KOTOR that was the final nail to get me to buy an XBox). So far, Sony has not had many games that such gamers thinks justifies the $400-500 down payment. Of course, the lower the console price, the less "killer" the app has to be to justify the purchase (I don't care how good Mario Galaxy may be - I wouldn't drop 4 bills for the privilege to play it).

As for the price drop, it is what Sony should have done, but remember this was coming off original PR that the console was underpriced, and a general arrogance about their position. And the first price cut was handled in a bad way, as they tried to hide the fact that it was, in fact, a fire sale, and that they would soon follow with a second price cut with new models with missing features (that was also denied). It was just badly handled on the PR side, and given the woeful state of the PS3 at the time, it was almost comical to those of us standing on the sidelines. It is, however, what ended up reversing the consoles fortunes (to a degree), especially since MS's own troubles kept them from matching with an aggressive cut of their own.

leo-j said: @passenger Just 2 weeks ago the ps3 was 47%of the X360 install base Now the ps3 is within 58% of of its install base. And market share went from 18% to almost 20% The ps3 is catching up.

 In my opinion percentages aren't that telling at the moment. For example if the 360 had an install base of 37.5 million and the PS3 had an install base of 30 million, and the Wii had 41 million they would still be 7.5 million apart but the pecentage of market share would look more like 35% Wii 33% 360 and 30% PS3. In witch case Percentages would be null. 

This thread is pointless and full of fail, I hope you're happy with your creation Passenger57, you MS fanbot.

leo-j said: @passenger Just 2 weeks ago the ps3 was 47%of the X360 install base Now the ps3 is within 58% of of its install base. And market share went from 18% to almost 20% The ps3 is catching up.

 please stop this madness! just open that book of math you have on your bookshelf and you'll discover than the gap could actually become bigger and at the same time market share difference could become lower...