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Forums - Sales - March 2011 Quarter / Fiscal Year Results for Nintendo (and projections)

postofficebuddy on 25 April 2011

I mentioned this in BHR's thread but with PS3 outshipping Wii in quarter 1 by at least 800k units and with Nintendo's 13 million projection it's pretty much a certainty that PS3 will come out on top this year among home consoles. I'm dying to see what Sony's projection will be. Too bad it's going to be a bit of a wait. I hate to be all doom and gloom but this would also appear to mean that Wii won't hit 100 million until mid to late 2012, particularly in terms of sell-through. I'm serriously starting to question where it might end up at. Less than 110 million? Obviously they don't expect price cuts to have much sustained effect.



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Nintendogamer on 25 April 2011
postofficebuddy said:

I mentioned this in BHR's thread but with PS3 outshipping Wii in quarter 1 by at least 800k units and with Nintendo's 13 million projection it's pretty much a certainty that PS3 will come out on top this year among home consoles. I'm dying to see what Sony's projection will be. Too bad it's going to be a bit of a wait. I hate to be all doom and gloom but this would also appear to mean that Wii won't hit 100 million until mid to late 2012, particularly in terms of sell-through. I'm serriously starting to question where it might end up at. Less than 110 million? Obviously they don't expect price cuts to have much sustained effect.


Let's get to 90M first, when ever that will be, November?  they expect 99M end of march 2012 but I think they will manage 97M though.  Wii LT sales will be at least 104M.



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kitler53 on 25 April 2011
Nintendogamer said:
postofficebuddy said:

I mentioned this in BHR's thread but with PS3 outshipping Wii in quarter 1 by at least 800k units and with Nintendo's 13 million projection it's pretty much a certainty that PS3 will come out on top this year among home consoles. I'm dying to see what Sony's projection will be. Too bad it's going to be a bit of a wait. I hate to be all doom and gloom but this would also appear to mean that Wii won't hit 100 million until mid to late 2012, particularly in terms of sell-through. I'm serriously starting to question where it might end up at. Less than 110 million? Obviously they don't expect price cuts to have much sustained effect.


Let's get to 90M first, when ever that will be, November?  they expect 99M end of march 2012 but I think they will manage 97M though.  Wii LT sales will be at least 104M.

all i can think about is the early days when the wii was outpacing the ps2 by a substaintial amount how people where calling on a minumum of 200M sales.  now it looks like it won't even outsell the ps2 and we're questioning 100M sales.  oh how the mighty has fallen.



menx64 on 25 April 2011
kitler53 said:
Nintendogamer said:
postofficebuddy said:

I mentioned this in BHR's thread but with PS3 outshipping Wii in quarter 1 by at least 800k units and with Nintendo's 13 million projection it's pretty much a certainty that PS3 will come out on top this year among home consoles. I'm dying to see what Sony's projection will be. Too bad it's going to be a bit of a wait. I hate to be all doom and gloom but this would also appear to mean that Wii won't hit 100 million until mid to late 2012, particularly in terms of sell-through. I'm serriously starting to question where it might end up at. Less than 110 million? Obviously they don't expect price cuts to have much sustained effect.


Let's get to 90M first, when ever that will be, November?  they expect 99M end of march 2012 but I think they will manage 97M though.  Wii LT sales will be at least 104M.

all i can think about is the early days when the wii was outpacing the ps2 by a substaintial amount how people where calling on a minumum of 200M sales.  now it looks like it won't even outsell the ps2 and we're questioning 100M sales.  oh how the mighty has fallen.


200m, thats way too much, but there is no way wii wont reach 100m, 97-98 by mid 2012, 110m 2013... and I guess it would still sell a few millions after mid 2013... so 115m or so before it gets discontinued... 



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Carl on 25 April 2011
Galaki said:

People. Nintendo didn't overship. They are just having negative sales.

This...

This is perfect. Well played

Seece said:

Wii shipped 15.01, and Sony announcing 50 mill means to some it's only reached 50 mill, some are saying beyond that. But you're right, they could very well beat their projection if they were on course to reach it, it's only 100k after all.

I expect Sony to beat Wii's 13 mill projection next year, that'll probably slide to below 12 mill anyway, going by the fact Nintendo have adjusted the Wii forecast 3 times in a row now ... 18 > 17.5 > 16 > 15.01


I really hope they did beat it. Reaaaaally do.

As for the 13 Million (Which will likely become 12, maybe 11 Million...), I can see both PS3 and the 360 outdoing that with pricecuts and the big SW releasing late this Year. Amazing what can happen to a market leader within 2 Years.



                            

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Ail on 25 April 2011

The real question now for Nintendo is this :

Do you agressively market the Wii for the holydays or do you cool down ? ( because those customers that buy one without knowing the Wii2 is coming out might not be so happy afterwards and are definitly going to be lost for Wii2 software purchases for a while...)



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Seece on 25 April 2011
Carl2291 said:
Galaki said:

People. Nintendo didn't overship. They are just having negative sales.

This...

This is perfect. Well played

Seece said:

Wii shipped 15.01, and Sony announcing 50 mill means to some it's only reached 50 mill, some are saying beyond that. But you're right, they could very well beat their projection if they were on course to reach it, it's only 100k after all.

I expect Sony to beat Wii's 13 mill projection next year, that'll probably slide to below 12 mill anyway, going by the fact Nintendo have adjusted the Wii forecast 3 times in a row now ... 18 > 17.5 > 16 > 15.01


I really hope they did beat it. Reaaaaally do.

As for the 13 Million (Which will likely become 12, maybe 11 Million...), I can see both PS3 and the 360 outdoing that with pricecuts and the big SW releasing late this Year. Amazing what can happen to a market leader within 2 Years.

I wonder if Nintendo are literally abandoning a sinking ship now, has all SW focus been shifted to Wii 2 you think? Bar Zelda ... Wii might be on a permanant SW drought from this point on ..

And thata lone means PS360 deserve to outsell it vastly ...



 

Carl on 25 April 2011
Seece said:

I wonder if Nintendo are literally abandoning a sinking ship now, has all SW focus been shifted to Wii 2 you think? Bar Zelda ... Wii might be on a permanant SW drought from this point on ..

And thata lone means PS360 deserve to outsell it vastly ...

It's looking that way. I think they only have Wii Play Motion, Kirby and Zelda left for the Wii. A whole bunch of the dev teams have moved onto the 3DS too, I think.

With 1st party ignoring it and 3rd parties living off the scraps, it's no surprise that Nintendo expects 13 Million for the next Year, even with a pricecut.

I think from 3rd party projects... The only huge game on the horizon is Dragon Quest X. IMO, even that isn't a certainty for the Wii anymore. 3DS or even SuperWii look like better options. Hell, even if it's a Wii/3DS/SuperWii BC Multi I wouldn't be surprised, or even if it's moved to the PS3/360...



                            

Ail on 25 April 2011
RolStoppable said:
Ail said:

The real question now for Nintendo is this :

Do you agressively market the Wii for the holydays or do you cool down ? ( because those customers that buy one without knowing the Wii2 is coming out might not be so happy afterwards and are definitly going to be lost for Wii2 software purchases for a while...)

Likewise, those customers would be lost for Microsoft and Sony for a while as well. So for Nintendo the question is to take that money or take no money.

They would probably make more money of those customers if they could convince them to wait for the Wii2 , especially if it starts retailing at 300$ or less..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Seece on 25 April 2011
RolStoppable said:
Ail said:

The real question now for Nintendo is this :

Do you agressively market the Wii for the holydays or do you cool down ? ( because those customers that buy one without knowing the Wii2 is coming out might not be so happy afterwards and are definitly going to be lost for Wii2 software purchases for a while...)

Likewise, those customers would be lost for Microsoft and Sony for a while as well. So for Nintendo the question is to take that money or take no money.

Not really, I see PS360 being supported long after their successors are out, like the PS2, as for Wii, it's barely supported now, when Wii 2 arrives it will see even less.