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Forums - Sales - My prediction: next generation will be smaller than the current

i just know that i'm always ready for as many gen as possible as long as i'm still alive and have the ability to... xDD



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I disagree. The console gaming will be just fine.

But the fact is, None of the big three got the permission to sell consoles in China. The Chinese gaming market is already huge, makes up about 12% of the world gaming market last year, and set to overtake USA as the biggest by 2014 according to some researchers.

 

http://blogs.ft.com/fttechhub/2011/02/china-games/



I know discretionary spending is down in Australia and we didn't even have a recession. More people are saving money and the rest is going into cost of living increases. This is further hampered by our two speed economy (with mining and financial services doing very well, especially mining which is fuelled by Chinese demand, and the rest having sluggish growth at best, and declining at worst).

The key here as you say is expanding into other markets like China, Russia, Brazil etc. This is what the Film industry is doing and its having massive successes in those emerging markets. The games industry must do the same. This is especially important whilst the west sorts itself out. If there is growth in the West I think it'll probably be slim.



Here's my baseless forecast for next-gen consoles.

Xbox 720 --- 85 million

PS4 --- 75 million

Wii 2 --- 55 million

3DS --- 95 million

NGP --- 45 million

 



The growth this gen happened because of the Wii, and if my worst fears are right, Nintendo will just launched two Wiis duct taped togheter and call it a console, and next gen is just as doomed as the PSP Go to be lower than this gen.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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At this point, noting thats not new and innovative will grow. 

All the products that make alot of money are new and innovative.    

If next gen is noting more then the expected upgrade it wont grow much,.



I think the next gen may be smaller than the current one, but not for the reasonr you're giving. The Wii was a huge success among the general population and was the thing to have. That expanded the install base of current gen consoles a lot. If something similar doesn't happen next time, the install base will be smaller than this time, though I still expect it to be larger than the last (PS2 era).



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Its all a matter or priority, most person are and will still be able to easily  afford a 300$ gaming console. Business relying on expensive short term pleasure are the one that suffers most from economic difficulty, like restaurants, travel agencies ect.