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Forums - Gaming - Against The Grain: The Wii's return to grace

NYANKS on 03 April 2011
RolStoppable said:
NYANKS said:

Oh, not at all.  I don't consider this any great achievment for them at all.  I prefer to focus on the Wii, it seems to be all about that console.  The fact that things have gone so badly is the headline here to me.  To me the other two have stayed relevant mostly, while the Wii has disintegrated relatively speaking.  I just feel like the two HD consoles were just going about their business of trying to draw in consumer with games and such, and the Wii just imploded.  Seems isolated, which is why I don't get all the comparisons.  The Wii only looks healthy because it was so high to begin with.  The collapse may get worse, who knows.  Like I said before, we've never really seen this.  I'm truly curious.

We've seen this in every generation so far, although there is a major difference this time.

If you look at any of the past consoles, you can usually see an interesting trend in the years three to five. Some consoles stay at a constant sales level while others start to drop off sharply and never recover. We are seeing the same pattern this generation. The reason for a decline or lack thereof is third party support. By year three third parties usually have picked a winner, so that console gets continually supported while the others of any given generation get increasingly ignored.

The major difference is that this gen third parties didn't pick the winner in sales. The Wii's sales curve is in line with systems like the Nintendo 64, the Gamecube, the Xbox, the Saturn and so on. The 360's and PS3's sales curves are in line with NES, SNES, PS1 and PS2. Once you've realized this you know how things will play out from here on out. The Wii will continue its steep decline selling several million units less with each passing year until it hits rock bottom while the 360 and PS3 will see a more gradual decline over the coming years.

There was a chance that the Wii would maintain higher sales levels despite its lack of third party support, but that would have required Nintendo to continue to put out killer apps at unprecedented levels. That really is the only possible way to make up for a lack of third party support. Games that are "only" good just don't cut it.

Right, but is that really the same?  Yes, trends may mimc past trends, but the real scenario is different.  The market leader is the one with the crappy apprent future sales trend, from what you say.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but did the Saturn ever spike during Christmas to and end up selling all other consoles while in the midst of its bad decline?  I'm assuming not.  I think it's not completely predictable what will happen here because I'm unsure how much pull being a market leader has in this technically never before seen situation.  Can this many hardware droughts irreparably damage it like it would a 3rd place console?  Or will a few games sporadically help it keep up the holiday spikes?  Stuf like that, I dunno. 

But I agree, I expect the decline to continue, which is why for the few months that the Wii is about equal with the other consoles don't tremendously impress me, it can be a moment on the downward curve that hasn't ended yet.



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Salnax on 04 April 2011

This entire affair is ridiculous.

The Wii has had a grand total of ONE notable title this year: Mario Sports Mix. And that's only outside of Japan.

The only upcoming game that's likely to matter is Skyward Sword.

The price has barely fallen since 2006.

The most sucessful game at the moment is a party game with a 74% on Metacritic.

The 360 had had a recent relaunch, and it and the PS3 have gotten Marvel vs Capcom 3, Dead Space 2, Killzone 3, LittleBigPlanet 2, Dynasty Warriors 7, Homefront, Mass Effect 2, Dragon Age 2, Crysis 2, and Bulletstorm.

And the Wii is still on par...

This is like watching two athletes barely keeping up with a fat guy with a broken hip. It's also a testament to the fact that the Wii is essentially indestructable.

I'm pretty sure the Wii will outsell its competirors this year.



My friend is a Vtuber, check him out.

SaviorX on 04 April 2011
Salnax said:

This entire affair is ridiculous.

The Wii has had a grand total of ONE notable title this year: Mario Sports Mix. And that's only outside of Japan.

The only upcoming game that's likely to matter is Skyward Sword.

The price has barely fallen since 2006.

The most sucessful game at the moment is a party game with a 74% on Metacritic.

The 360 had had a recent relaunch, and it and the PS3 have gotten Marvel vs Capcom 3, Dead Space 2, Killzone 3, LittleBigPlanet 2, Dynasty Warriors 7, Homefront, Mass Effect 2, Dragon Age 2, Crysis 2, and Bulletstorm.

And the Wii is still on par...

This is like watching two athletes barely keeping up with a fat guy with a broken hip. It's also a testament to the fact that the Wii is essentially indestructable.

I'm pretty sure the Wii will outsell its competirors this year.


Bold words....bold words. The holiday model is skewed though. Having all the worthwhile software crammed into the 4th quarter is something that I hope Nintendo does not follow again next generation; its momentum-killing.

They probably doubted the Wii would be this popular, so software reflects a 5 year cycle on their end. Wii thrives, like all consoles, on software. The great games of Q4 2010 (Sonic, Goldeneye, MJ: The Experience, Epic Mickey, Just Dance 2, uDraw, etc) ALL PROSPERED because they were made with an ounce of thought and promoted properly.

Why de Blob 2 bombed, I  don't know; shoulda staed Wii exclusive :P



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

Alby_da_Wolf on 04 April 2011

I never  thought Wii were d0med, but it had some downturns outside of Xmas seasons due to Nintendo not following its own strongest principle, that SW sells HW. Metroid and Kirby performing better and just 2 or 3 other big titles launched when it had its biggest slumps in the last years could have prevented this. For this very reasons, its huge existing library is already enough to prevent it from really declining, while  its future line-up, particularly for Xmas, as usual, will make it sell very well again (although not reaching its highest peak), surprising once again sceptics, haters and also oversensitive fans that mourn it as dead, d0med and gl0med whenever it doesn't crush competitors.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


zgamer5 on 04 April 2011

de blob 2 is on other consoles.



Being in 3rd place never felt so good

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milkyjoe on 04 April 2011
ultraslick said:

Also, just wanted to add that I think everyone agrees and is aware of the same thing. We are just forming different stances on the same issue.

Has the wii dipped a bit... Yea

but what does that mean? That is where the argument begins, and it is a good one that I doubt has a clear answer.

Heres something for you Nintendo fans;

As can be pointed out, the wii is beating the 360 currently after Kinect and redesign.. this is amazing.

and is only loosing to the PS3 because of the glut of recent and upcoming PS3 exclusives, it is suprising the ps3 isnt further ahead in this regard. Also amazing.

But even if the wii manages to pass them in weekly sales (for the sake of argument), it has still fallen from grace, (meaning its level of past sales dominance).

But that doesnt mean it isnt still graceful and great.

 

Lets say that the wii is a horse in a race, It started out killing the opposition, has hit a few hurdles here and there, has had portions near the end of the race where the other horses section times were faster, but it will still win the derby here people.

It will still win the derby. But is the derby more important than who is currently winning?

I dont know, just thoughts.

If we're using a horse race analogy, then who gets over the finishing line first is all that matters.

If I put money on a horse to win, and it races into an early lead of an absolute mile, but then stumbles, breaks one of its legs and then finishes the race on 3 legs, but still crosses the line in first place, then I'll win a ton of money.

If I put money on a horse that has a terrible start but then has a late surge at the same time as the leader stumbles, and outpaces the leader in the final yards, but ultimately finishes last, I'm not going to win anything. I'll have lost all my money.



VGChartz

Conegamer on 04 April 2011
Immortal said:

Bad argument.

The Wii is doomed done for, remember?

Oh right...sorry bout that guys. This whole thread was obviously a waste of time



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 04 April 2011
SaviorX said:

 

Time for a history lesson:

 GameCube HW & SW (GC)  Americas 12.94/138.48  Japan 4.04/ 27.54  EMEAA 4.77/ 42.55

Total 21.75/ 208.57

 

Originally priced $200 on 11/14/01 at launch, GC ended up $99 by 9/25/03. By that time, the GC sold 9.4 million units.

Wii HW & SW   Americas 41.18/383.38  Japan 11.55/55.57  EMEAA 33.45/215.67

Total 86.18/654.62

 

Originally priced $250 on 11/16/06 at launch, Wii ended up $199 by 9/27/09. By that time, the Wii sold 53 million units.

Console

Million Sellers

500,000 sellers

300,000 sellers

GC

41

54

67

Wii

109

216

360

 

Now, for modern day times:

PS3 178,305(-3%)  Wii 161,128(0%) X360 149,140(-5%)

 

-          This past weeks sales worldwide. Like mentioned earlier in this thread, given a different perspective, this could make the PS3/360 look bad.

-          In Japan, Wii only got 5 more games than the PLAYSTATION TWO this year while the PS3 received triple the amount of software. Despite that, the PS3 has sold only 150k more hardware units over there. I’ll give Sony credit though, it is at a higher price :)

-          The Xbox360, the most heavily supported console this generation, has undergone a console relaunch that is not even infant old (9 months) and it has fallen behind in sales on a worldwide scale. The only potential system seller it has coming up is 25 weeks away, and the 3rd entry in a series (Gears 3). The Wii hasn’t got a lick of support throughout the entirety of its first 120 days this year, and has maintained sales somehow.

-          Overall, I wouldn’t expect a Wii 2 until Nov. 2012. When Nintendo was enjoying success as a market leader with the NES, they stayed for 6 years before moving on; I expect the same thing here.

-          DS came 2 years before Wii, GBA came 5 months before GC, and the GB came 2 years before SNES…the correlation between them…I can’t make one :P

 

What hope does the Wii have this year? GENERIC LIST WAR TIME.

What we know: Zelda, Kirby, Pandora’s Tower, Last Story, Earth Seeker, Xenoblade (Chronicles), Tales of Graces F, Conduit 2, Rodea, and some E3 stuff.

 What we guess is coming: Vitality Sensor and maybe a New Super Mario Bros.2; I don’t like speculation.

 Reggie said they aren’t pullin the plug on the Wii until it sells 45m in Americas. Start the countdown…

I like this. I like this a lot. You speak a lot of sense and make a well thought out argument. You're a 

(Mind if I add this to the OP? At least some of it)



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 04 April 2011
Salnax said:

This entire affair is ridiculous.

The Wii has had a grand total of ONE notable title this year: Mario Sports Mix. And that's only outside of Japan.

The only upcoming game that's likely to matter is Skyward Sword.

The price has barely fallen since 2006.

The most sucessful game at the moment is a party game with a 74% on Metacritic.

The 360 had had a recent relaunch, and it and the PS3 have gotten Marvel vs Capcom 3, Dead Space 2, Killzone 3, LittleBigPlanet 2, Dynasty Warriors 7, Homefront, Mass Effect 2, Dragon Age 2, Crysis 2, and Bulletstorm.

And the Wii is still on par...

This is like watching two athletes barely keeping up with a fat guy with a broken hip. It's also a testament to the fact that the Wii is essentially indestructable.

I'm pretty sure the Wii will outsell its competirors this year.

I'm liking all of these likenesses to the Wii being a failure, keep it up!

Also, this year for the Wii, hmm...

How about Kirby's Epic Yarn, Mario Sports Mix, Xenoblade, Pikmin 3, Conduit 2, Skyward Sword and The Last Story for a start eh? 

 

Here's another, more accurate likeness. Imagine the Wii as an F1 car, and the other consoles as Lamborghini's. The other consoles are selling well, in their own internal race, neither really pulling away from the other.

The Wii, on the other hand, is waaaaaaaaaaaaay faster. But it's much harder to control. I think we can count this section for the Wii as maybe a misfire, a bad gear change, a slide, whatever you want to call it. It isn't a crash.

Yet, even with this, and absolutely everything going the way of the other consoles, they still can't overtake the Wii. They never will. The times are very nearly the same. People just like to complain.

And you know what happens after a slide or a misfire? Nothing. It just gets back to where it was. It may not be as fast, but over the entire year, it will be faster.

 

Bet you found my cross-metaphor confusing eh?



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

chocoloco on 04 April 2011

I hate to say this, but I dont understand the llongivity of the enjoyment of the wii. I played a few decent games and gave it to my step mom, she quit wii fit. My two step bros who owna 360 and ps3 between them never play the wii. it just sits there with four potential gamers having no interest.

I am just writing this to say I am shocked by anyone that can be amused by the wii alone for more than a year. It only amused me for ABOUT 4 MONTHS AND THAN i REALIZED i HAD PLAYED MOST OF THE GAMES BY nINTENDO ALREADY WORTH PLAYING.

I just can't see enjoyment longevity in that system.