Looking at PS3 previous years...

2007: 7,704,872
2008: 9,920,589 ( 29%)
2009: 13,024,761 ( 31%)
2010: 14,450,859`( 11%)

Yes. It can.

I think both PS3 and 360 qould benefit equally from a price cut. Yes the arcade is only $200, but they account for a small portion of sales (Pachner says <20%). Even then, a $150 arcade, as a secondary console for PS3/Wii owners, and maybe a $250 360-Kinect bundle. That should offset a the 20% of non Elite 360 sales, which is the same price PS3 is at.

I assume % is year growth?

I'm terrible at predicting future console sales. The idea that 360 has had it's peak year after its 6th year since launch, without a price cut, is beyond me. The fact that it's holding 10% stronger sales into 2011 is also beyond me.

I feel both 360 and PS3 sales will go down overall this year. PS3 is selling 15-25% lower then last years sales, so without a price cut I don't see PS3 sales being above 13 million. Even with a price cut, I still think 2010 was a peak year for both the 360 and PS3, but I have been wrong before.

It could go either way.

Fixed.

This year: 2,531,364
Last year: 2,780,164

But the price cut will put PS3 over last year in the second semester.

For reference the 360 numbers too...

This year: 2,250,997
Last year: 1,923,147

The problem here is 360 will be down in the second semester because last year it had a new model, Halo and Kinect.

i agree with you michael! you rockkkk

Price cut and Kinect will even the battlefield against Slim and Halo methinks, also taking into the account the gains prior to June, it should in theory, cancel out the deficit between June - Sept. and have a flat year in general, coming into the holidays, then in order to be up YoY, they'll need fantastic holiday season, with a price cut and correct supply, I don't see why not.

There is a difference between being successful, and bundling your way to success.

Forza, while it has "sold" extremely well, has had a huge portion of its sales from bundles. The same happened with Forza 2, which is overtracked here by 500k btw.

Forza 3 had close to 1.5 Million units moved with the official bundle last Year. It had an official Holiday bundle in 2009 too, although it's hard to say how many sales came from that one.

It's not exactly competition if you need to bundle it like crazy to just come close the Prologue to GT5.

yeah I doubt MS cares about the actual sales of this Forza more to just get the name out there as the first 2 didnt do that. Number 3 actually showed that it could provide some sort of challenge (in quality of game) to Gran Turismo the franchise. Forza 4 will get bundled.. thats almost guaranteed but if Forza is to provide a proper competition to a game series that has been on 3 consoles, this will be the way to do it imo

If we're going by quality, Forza 2 was reviewed better than GT4 and Forza 3 was reviewed better than GT5... Take what you will from that. 

Review scores though, don't really matter in the long run. Mario Kart Wii jumps up and screams in everybodies face with that one. It's destroyed GT5 and both Forza's combined this gen.

Sales... Forza will likely never best GT, not unless it ends up coming with every 360 for a Year. It's certainly something that could keep a few potential buyers away from a PS3 though - See Selnor, for an example. Doesn't need a PS3 for GT, because Forza is enough for him.

Not really doing it by review scores to be completely honest, I am meaning people taking the franchise seriously, people used to see Forza as just another racer now they are seeing the game has a bloody good quality. 

You're right they probably will never catch GT but the main vision from MS imo is to stop GT being a selling beast for PS3, that is one thing that they have never been really to combat as a system seller. The fact that GT5 prologue was a system seller shows you how damn popular the racing genre can be.