I really don't see how a $6 game could ever afford the production value budget higher than that of a $60 game. That is just nonsensical.

Also, PCs are already getting well above 10 Gig RAM and have a nice selection of 2 Gig graphics cards so, 4 years from now they should be even more capable. 8GHz would probably still need some time to work out heating issues though... not sure how feasible that is.

Anyway, Next gen is going to be limited mostly by software rather than hardware capabilities. So, multi-platform games should be pretty much the same aside from controller input.

I guess that is why (unless one company really innovates next generation) I believe buying a console will become even less compelling than before. The more expensive and PC like the consoles become... you might as well game on a PC plugged into the T.V.

What the consoles need to do is to focus on differentiating themselves from PCs (no installs, different standard control schemes, shorter loading times, lower cost, smooth frame rates regardless when a game came out, minimal effort to optimize gaming set up, minimal errors, etc.) and on keeping strong relationships with third party developers (be proactive in assisting the developers in making games for your platform or just buying them outright).

Not sure about 2015, but the Wii does have some potential to remain on the market for a while longer. What I personally believe Nintendo needs right now is another Rareware. Someone who knows how to really utilize the hardware, create new content, and help relieve some of the pressure off Nintendo.

I agree, releasing a console too early has many cons. The big question imo is if developers will be really able to create (economically) such a big gaphical leap to justify Ps3/X360 current (and potential) users to go from a cheap console with a huge game library, to a new expansive one.

*Cough* Retro *Cough*

Neither rushed nor delayed: rushing it would mean either making it too underpowered even for  Nintendo's prudent standards or having to choose between overpricing it or accepting small profits or even initial losses on HW, and there would also be too little time to build up hype; delaying it too much would mean giving competitors an excessive head start (Ninty knows giving one year to the earliest is proven to be acceptable, but more would be a dangerous gamble).

So 2012-2013, maybe even 2014, if the earliest competitor launches late enough and Wii doesn't drop furtherly too much, but neither 2011 nor 2015. And whatever Ninty decides, I expect it to put Wii again in a good shape before starting the marketing machine for its successor, its brand name and recognition, and its potential profits not reaped yet too, are too precious to be wasted.

Retro is a good developer, but they are still not quite as good as Rareware was.

Wii2 in 2015? Heck no.

Nintendo will release late 2012 for christmas possibly early 2013 if something forces them to. They will continue with short 5 year releases, so in 2017-2018 we get Wii3 (or whatever they name it).

X360 and PS3 will stabalize with Wii2, and wont release until at least a year after, possibly 2-3 years after Wii2. After all, if Wii2 does not offer anything _more_ than what the X360 and PS3 can offer what is the incentive? The X360 and PS3 will only seem outdated if the Wii2 does something new to truly enhance gameplay or beefs up already existing stuff (more processing power, better motion precision, etc).

We will see 2-3 Nintendo console release per 1-2 MS/SONY console release. Nintendo usually goes for short iterative style, where SONY/MS prefer a heavy hitter that lasts longer.

?

No?

Used to be generations were in-line with each other. Only now are people only speculating that Sony and Microsoft can last longer than the normal generation, and they bought that by tremendously overshooting the market in the first few years or so, but Nintendo products have traditionally had more longevity than Microsoft ones (the Xbox ditched quickly), and on-par with Sony on the console front.

Only Nintendo has maintained a single platform for ten years so far, and that was the competitionless Game Boy

theres no easy way that wii can last til 2015, not saying its impossible.  but i dont think think the new console will be released as soon as 2012.  we would have heard at least some kind of leaked info by now.  i remember there were leaks on the ps3 as early as 2000.  granted thats sony and not nintendo.  i predict a late 2013 early 2014 launch for the next nintendo system.

MS is still too new, so frankly they have zero history whether they can maintain long console life considering their failure in the original XBOX.

However, there are a few reasons why I think there is a shift in strategy that makes SONY differ from Nintendo.

One, SONY has always intended for PS3 to last as long as PS2 at the very least. From PS2 release to PS3 release was a little over 6 years. While GC to Wii was a little over 5 years. I think this time SONY will go for 7 years, at least and as I said could go longer, between PS3 to PS4. Which would peg PS4 at 2013-2014. Whereas I think Wii will stick with 5 years, pegging it at 2011-2012.

The GC was at least comparably as powerful as PS2. It could compete very well control wise and power wise with both the PS2 and the XBOX. This is simply not the case with the Wii and PS3/X360.

You can argue that the controls made it competative, but I think simply that the two install bases (motion controls and non-motion controls) simply do not mix. Only us hard core who typically own multiple consoles every generation. Now PS3 and X360 have their own versions of motion controls, this alone suggests an extension of at least 2 years from now before either one of those two consoles are going to want to deflate sales.

So again I say, the Wii2 will compete half its life between PS3/X360 and the other half between (maybe the larger half) PS4/X720.