Semiaccurate's Charlie says that console development for MS and Sony was reset to scratch last year. Nintendo was still on track for when they planned. So Nintendo 2012, MS/Sony 2014-15 seems the most likely scenario.

I think Nintendo will launch in 2012 a full HD console (1080p @60 fps). If, as many are suspecting, the console prices are going down this year (360 @150, PS3 @250 or lower), Nintendo can release an affordable console in 2012 with Full HD support @250 without losing money.

Can they wait till 2015? yes, they can. Will they? No, I don't think is wise to do it. Launching a console in 2012 is a good balance between giving their customer good value for their money (2006-2012 with support till 2013, that's 7 years of support), pushing the other companies to change and pleasing the third parties and the hardcore gamers.

Just how the resolution of the 3DS disappointed me, I can imagine Nintendo making it 720p -_- 

Thing is, our eyes can't tell the difference due to small screen.

Same idea with camera that sell on megapixel marketing but when you only print 3x5 pictures, there's no difference when you use a 2MP vs 12MP cameras.

no I don't think its possible, the Wii is losing momentum and the price is already quite low and doesn't have that much more to go down until it hits below the point where they have no affect, a WiiHD to tie them over until the PS4/Xbox 720 releases should be ok though

If games are any metric to measure the big 3 by, Both Nintendo and Microsoft are seriously gearing up to launch a new console, 1 of which we may see as early as holiday 2012.  This is because there is a serious lack of games from both of them in comparison to

Sony; which is obviously still wholly focused on this gen as is evident by their proverbial cornicopia of games this year and next.

It has been an interesting generation so far which will lead to an even more interesting transition to the next. I am wondering if we could have multiple generational overlaps for several years, which could make things... confusing.

That is to say; if the SuperWii launched early and then Microsoft followed 2 years later, then Sony has the audacity to wait an additional year after that, then Nintendo may need consider entering the "iterative style generation" which Microsoft and Sony have entered into already, to compensate for what will inevitably be lagging sales when competitors will be launchng new consoles.

yea thats the way i see it too.  any graphical/power update the ps3/360 do for their next systems won't be able to be utilized for quite some time and will primarily be essentially what the wii 2 will be doing.

the only thing that we can't account for is what OTHER things the new ps3/360 will do.  will they have some amazing motion thing?  amazing kinect? amazing holographic stuff? amazing ect that makes the 2-3 year old wii2 get pushed aside

No, nor can MS or Sony

When Nintendo releases a new console, say, Winter 2011, then the other two will seem to be outdated and old. They won't want old tech. People want new tech, especially with Nintendo's brand recognition

No way can MS and Sony afford to wait until 3-4 years after the Wii2 launch to release their next console, they'll effectively skip a generation.

Nintendo have the upper hand here. They can release a Wii2 with better graphics than the PS360 in 2011, having made a tidy profit from the Wii, and sell both at the same time. PS360 however are different. Do they try and get back money from this generation and not release a console to fight with the Wii2, and stick with the PS360, or do they cut their losses, make a new console and get profit and games for the next generation?

Bottom line is, Nintendo are firmly in the best situation here. Striking at the right time could really hurt MS or Sony...

I doubt Nintendo could hurt MS even if they would want. MS made 17.8 billion dollar profits last year (more than Apple) and has 40 billion cash in reserve just waiting to be used. So, MS could easily afford even next generation with huge loss if they want. They don't want to because they want profits for shareholders but if Nintendo launches next generation console first, they will definitely launch their console soon after that even with loss. Then again, even Nintendo have a lot of money (not as much as MS but they are also smaller company) so even they could make risk with next generation. 

Sony, however, can't afford making such big losses. They don't have big profits or cash reserves so they wouldn't want getting big losses again. Sure, they have biggest assets of the 3 but assets only matter when you sell them and I doubt they would like to do that because that also could hurt future revenue and profits.

I don't think either Sony or MS have a choice here tbh All Nintendo needs is a console powerful enough to get multiplats that aren't cut down and they're fine, reason for this is because most devs just port over their work to different platforms but with the Wii they take reworking. The next Nintendo Console should be able to handle mps that don't suffer as much as on Wii and it's this which will be a bigger problem for Sony and MS then anything else as it will come down to first party strength and tbh Nintendo are on form in that area.

These two can not afford to wait around when such a console arrives as they'll fall heavily behind as the Wii will just transfer momentum to the new console like the DS is doing for its successor.