Not going to happen.

/thread

I'll sign up when I can get 1080p lossless compressed video over the internet. Even blu-ray doesn't look all that great at 40 mbps when there is a lot going on on screen. HDTV broadcasts look worse then analog tv did when there are a lot of strobe light effects going on. They run between 7 and 14mbps depending on the station. Netflix, 360, psn max out at 10mbps.

In comparison digital cinema runs at upto 250 mbps, uncompressed 60fps 1080p RGB video is 2847 mbps.

You can get pretty far with lossless compression but not to anything that the internet can handle anytime soon. My 'hi-speed' internet struggles to maintain 4mbps. (although rated at 10)

But maybe in 2020 we'll all have fibre optic cables running to our homes and giant server centres dishing out games and tv on demand broadcasts for millions of people at a time.

More likely we'll get laggy games with bink like compression artifacts. I'll stick to a box under the tv that still works when my internet is down.

Sure there will be a market for people that are happy with netflix quality, hopefully there will also be a market for people like me.

Assuming we're talking a gen that will likely come no earlier than 2020, I agree with Jaffe.

What I find strange, though, is how he talks so much about Sony and not mentioning the other two.  If this is the future, based on what I see now I'd think that Microsoft would be in the best position to be the leader in such a space of available players.  They've made a point of showing their overall commitment to the cloud and already are the leader in the online gaming space.  Not saying the others can't R&D their way to preparedness (the NGP is proof Sony's not going to sleep on it), MS, as a mostly software company, seems to be in the best position for such a future.

Ok, now feel free to grab the torches and pitchforks and come after me.

I dont see it happening. People dont mind buying music tracks at .99 cents. That is throwaway money. I can imagine 2 gens from now games will be in the $70-$80 range. I see sales of full price games dropping by more than 1/2 of what it is now cause you cant resell dd games. Then again 2020 is a whiles away so who knows what will happen.

Along with a New World Order the future is starting to look sadder and sadder everyday.

Yep, I'm on board with Jaffe's crystal ball gazing. I expect I probably won't be gaming much by the time PS4 / 720 get late into their cycle so it won't really matter either way.

I expect you'll get something like an internet hub device that's used for all devices and functions around the home, and gaming will be one of those functions. It'll basically be like Cable TV is now I expect, and there will be multiple manufacturers, not just "the big 3". I don't see Nintendo home consoles surviving the transition.

I even wonder if mobile devices that are game consoles first and does few other things. Xperia Play might not be a good hybrid device, but I think it's the way things will go. Nintendo will have to adapt to the one mobile device to rule them all evolution or they will find themselves as a software company only (not necessarily a bad thing, Nintendo is all about the games not the hardware, they just had to make the hardware because no one else would). I can see most people not wanting to carry more than one device on them at a time and a device that games, e-mails, Facebooks, internet browses, telephones, purchases, shoots photos and videos will be preferred over a device that just games. A game only device will be relegated to a toy for kids who can't/don't need an all-in-one device. Still I expect 3DS2 and even 3DS3 will sell well. I think PSP2 (NGP) is the last dedicated Sony portable gaming console.

Expect to see a Sony Vaio Play tablet device in the next few years I suppose.

Jaffe I think is alittle optamistic about digital distribution. Or the idea that consoles will dissapear. If anything consoles will evolve into computers more so then they already are.

I notice he leaves Nintendo out of the equasion. Nintendo will be the last company to embrace digital distribution. Much like they did with the CD/DVD, they held out with SNES,N64 and refused to conform with GCN using min-disks instead. I fully expect Nintendo to stick with a physical format for at least one generation longer then the competition. Now if this is true and Microsoft and Sony ditch physical formats, then Nintendo will have a major niche, I bet many gamers will still want physical copies of their games much like people still buy CD's. If Sony and Microsoft stop using physical media it will mean a massive increase in sales for Nintendo as they will no longer have a direct competitor. Also Nintendo isn't as optamistic about Cloud or Digital Distribution they believe their is a market for solid software as they keep saying when talking about App store games etc..etc..

Will Sony or Microsoft drop physical media after next gen? I think that depends on On-Live and Steam. If Steam and On-Live over the next generation can bring in as much money or more money then Nex-Box and PS4 then maybe they will. Cloud will definatly be used in future consoles but will it become the primary format? Also if Sony or Microsoft were to make their move to online format, would either one of them leave Nintendo unchallenged in physical media? As I said above giving Nintendo a monopoly on physical media would drive profits for Nintendo pretty high, would Sony or Microsoft be willing to give up so much market share to Nintendo?

Also internet policies are changing. More and more people are using more and more bandwidth. I watched an interview alittle while ago that said the internet could crash if everyone in the world began using it as much as North American's do. Already providers in Canada are starting to charge by usage making it cost more to stream large amounts of content. If in 10 years their are like a billion more internet users will the costs of streaming or downloading all your content be too high? Imagine streaming 70-gig games or downloading them? RIght now I use like 10 - 20 gig a month. Apparently that is going to start costing me, but I can only imagine how expensive it would be if I were to buy 3 full fledged games over the internet. If I was streaming them I'd probably use even more data then downloading.

So will the internet ten years from now be as customer friendly as it is today? Will Microsoft or Sony really leave Nintendo with a monopoly? Will consumers want to purchase all of their content digitally (I sure as hell won't)?

Their are several flaws in Jaffe's logic. The market could drastically change in the next ten years, I can't see it becoming much easier for digital distribution. If PSPGo failed now I can't see in 10 years it becoming the norm, especially if things continue to go in the direction they are (Higher internet costs/ Way more global users)

I disagree with the mighty Jaffe, even though the future is uncertain and anything can happen. I'd rather have this next gen upgradable consoles that would look even more similar to PCs than these services.

i disagree... i might be wrong but collectors and special editions are selling now more than ever... most games now, have a more expensive (and more profitable) edition, and that is selling very well... i think publishers realize that most gamers are also collectors. Even if its just one console maker, the future will give us dedicated HW further than the next generation, IMO.

He's wrong in that physical media will exist for years to come. Some people like disks, others like to buy them as gifts... there are several reasons to keep physical disks afloat for a long time. Besides, what is it going to cost MS/Sony to put a BD player in their next console? $5-7? There's no point in NOT putting one into the system. It makes it a more functional unit that better fits the living room lifestyle of many people.

The key difference is that developers will stop focusing on brick & mortar stores so much and will push digital sales more rigorously. Profits are higher, there is no backstock/inventory, changes can be made on the fly, and the customer can impulse buy something from their couch.

Hardware will always exist and it will always be branded by MS/Sony/Ninty. But what will probably happen is that we'll hit a hardware ceiling (we already have in many cases) which forces developers to hold back how good they can make a game in favor of keeping the budget moderate so they don't have to sell 14 million copies to turn a profit on the game. When that happens, hardware will stagnate and at that point, we'll see less Xbox 360/PS3-type hardware and something that is more flexible and cheap, like an AppleTV that gets small hardware updates once every year or two but is just called "AppleTV" as a platform, not a specific device.