Jaffe I think is alittle optamistic about digital distribution. Or the idea that consoles will dissapear. If anything consoles will evolve into computers more so then they already are.
I notice he leaves Nintendo out of the equasion. Nintendo will be the last company to embrace digital distribution. Much like they did with the CD/DVD, they held out with SNES,N64 and refused to conform with GCN using min-disks instead. I fully expect Nintendo to stick with a physical format for at least one generation longer then the competition. Now if this is true and Microsoft and Sony ditch physical formats, then Nintendo will have a major niche, I bet many gamers will still want physical copies of their games much like people still buy CD's. If Sony and Microsoft stop using physical media it will mean a massive increase in sales for Nintendo as they will no longer have a direct competitor. Also Nintendo isn't as optamistic about Cloud or Digital Distribution they believe their is a market for solid software as they keep saying when talking about App store games etc..etc..
Will Sony or Microsoft drop physical media after next gen? I think that depends on On-Live and Steam. If Steam and On-Live over the next generation can bring in as much money or more money then Nex-Box and PS4 then maybe they will. Cloud will definatly be used in future consoles but will it become the primary format? Also if Sony or Microsoft were to make their move to online format, would either one of them leave Nintendo unchallenged in physical media? As I said above giving Nintendo a monopoly on physical media would drive profits for Nintendo pretty high, would Sony or Microsoft be willing to give up so much market share to Nintendo?
Also internet policies are changing. More and more people are using more and more bandwidth. I watched an interview alittle while ago that said the internet could crash if everyone in the world began using it as much as North American's do. Already providers in Canada are starting to charge by usage making it cost more to stream large amounts of content. If in 10 years their are like a billion more internet users will the costs of streaming or downloading all your content be too high? Imagine streaming 70-gig games or downloading them? RIght now I use like 10 - 20 gig a month. Apparently that is going to start costing me, but I can only imagine how expensive it would be if I were to buy 3 full fledged games over the internet. If I was streaming them I'd probably use even more data then downloading.
So will the internet ten years from now be as customer friendly as it is today? Will Microsoft or Sony really leave Nintendo with a monopoly? Will consumers want to purchase all of their content digitally (I sure as hell won't)?
Their are several flaws in Jaffe's logic. The market could drastically change in the next ten years, I can't see it becoming much easier for digital distribution. If PSPGo failed now I can't see in 10 years it becoming the norm, especially if things continue to go in the direction they are (Higher internet costs/ Way more global users)
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
