Correct me if I'm wrong, because I have a little confusion in my head.

The last four weeks of sales (worldwide!) the Wii was ranging in the 650-700k per week. Summing it all up it shows that roughly 2.6-2.7 millions Wii has been sold WW in a month time... How is that possible if Wii is always supply costrained by the production of just 1.8 millions.

Also I tried to figure out how many Wii were produced from the beginning, last november, throughout the year, based on what the PRs said.  First month was just 500-600k (November), from December to July was increased to 1.0m a month, then from August till the end of this month is on a month production of 1.8m.

If I sum it up, the result is in the range of 17.5-17.6m units (600kx1 + 1.0x8 + 1.8x5), or maybe less if the last production increase was delayed till september (that would lead to the Wii being below 17 millions and your prediction, shown in the front page, totally incorrect). This lead to the conclusion that there are at most 500k Wiis left for sales throughout 2007. And I don't see how this could lead to another 1.8m units sold only in the USA for Christmas.

There are several explanation to these conjectures I made: 1) Nintendo managed to do some extra work and made more Wiis than expected; 2) VGCharts are way off with sells numbers, showing more HW sold than produced or/and 3) Nintendo is in huge trouble for this Christmas, having only crumbles left to sell! 

Anyone that has better knowledge of this matter please explain it to me.

i believe it is because that
only the usa is in short supply
must of the other countries still have stock left from before

like in my country singapore you can easily see 4 to 5 wii at quite a number of shop

so it may explain why but than again some people suggest that nintendo stock pilled for the last few month

Well NPD backed VGC up on the US part, the japan part is backed up by 2 other tracking firms, leaves only europe as "questinable".

Europe wasn't sold out. Not entirerly, the UK was, but France and Germany had a more or less healty filled retail channel, so its possible that Nintendo sold there more than shipped, thats also possible in Japan, since there where reports in the end of september that the retail channel was filling up due low demand.

I think someone will come soon along and tell you how many Wii's where shipped until end of September (thats the last number known).

I am a little to lazy to search.

 Retailers sitting on excess stock and releasing them for the holidays

well only in the US wii was sold out in other places the supply became healthier

1. I assume Wiis were being produced before last November, in order to be on store shelves in mid-november 06.

2. Monthly production figures are not exact. the 1 million and 1.8 million Wiis/month could be higher depending on many factors and component supply bottlenecks.

3. There was some amount of stockpiling going on. If not by Nintendo, then by retailer stocking for the holiday season. We saw it this past weekend, where suddenly 6 of the largest retailers has large shipments of Wiis for sale at the same time.

There has been supply in other countries (especially Japan and a few parts of others). That supply has been sitting on shelves, waiting to sell. So that could account for some of those units. Also, Nintendo sells region locked units which means it manufactures units per region and then distributes them.

There is a very easy way to tell if Nintendo has been stockpiling: a large percentage of the currently being sold Wiis would have manufacturing dates several months old (manufacturing dates a month or two old could be due to shipping, retailer stockpiling, etc).

Production wise... they had 2 million for the launch, and I believe it was at 1 million per month at launch (so the 500k for December may be wrong)

they increased to 1.5 million in June or July i think, and 1.8 million in August
(I vaguely remember some time they were at 1.3 million p/month, but i am not sure)

So for the 13 months (assuming Nintendo are using calender months...but they may be using 4 weeks as a base month) they produced at least 19.5 million.

2 million (at launch)
+7 million (December 2006 through June 2007)
+1.5 million (July)
+9 million (August through December)


(If they did have a period f 1.3 million, or are using lunar months instead, then they will have produced even more)

Of course not all of the total will get to retail or to consumers, so i guess take 500k off... that is still 19 million

Of course they stockpiled. They didn't come to december with only 1.8M Wiis to sell worldwide, that would be totally stupid.
Actually I think there's a mistake in your numbers, Nintendo was producing 1.2M Wiis a month til August. That would make 1.6M more consoles produced.
Actually we don't know precisely how many Wiis have been produced every month, we don't know either when exactly the production rose, and we don't know exactly when all those consoles produced were shipped.

All we know is that when making a quick calculation with the few data we have, the numbers are quite well coinciding. And we also know that Nintendo doesn't have much Wiis left in stock and will probably be almost soldout after christmas.

In march the production was upped to 1,3M/month, so that's 1,5M to add to your numbers. And the latest increase was "1,8M/month at minimum", so we can expect, that they make more of them, but the question is, that is it 10k or 30k a month more. Or some higher number.
There was also quite a few ready for launch, which weren't in your numbers.

The retail stockpiles some, Nintendo stockpiles some and as said, Europe wasn't sold out (after march, i believe) and japan had a lull, which gives room for them having some in stock.