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Michael-5 on 19 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
4k1x3r said:
 

Michael Michael Michael... just for you:

 

Worldwide:
Weeks GT4 GT5 Difference Temp GT4 TEMP GT5 Cumulative
1 2 523 055 2 334 932 -188 123 (92.5%)
 2 523 055 2 191 588 -188 123
2 1 000 378 744 116 -256 262 (74.4%)
 3 523 433 2 935 704 -444 385
3 510 176 675 112 164 936 (132.3%)
 4 033 609 3 610 816 -279 449
4 326 608 624 977 298 369 (191.4%)
 4 360 217 4 235 793 18 920
5 231 662 585 254 353 592 (252.6%)
 4 591 879 4 821 047 372 512
6 178 044 310 094 132 050 (174.2%)
 4 769 923 5 131 141 504 562
7 137 261 171 438 34 177 (124.9%)
 4 907 184 5 302 579 538 739
8 120 989 120 100 -889 (99.3%)
 5 028 173 5 422 679 537 850
9 102 768 91 157 -11 611 (88.7%)
 5 130 941 5 513 836 526 239
10 92 089 73 757 -18 332 (80.1%)
 5 223 030 5 587 593 507 907
11 83 643 63 025 -20 618 (75.3%)
 5 306 673 5 650 618 487 289
12 77 354 52 727 -24 627 (68.2%)
 5 384 027 5 703 345 462 662
13 67 939 61 928 -6 011 (91.2%)
 5 451 966 5 765 273 456 651
14 60 955 55 184 -5771 (90.5%)
 5 512 921 5 820 457 450 880
15 55 236 37 402 -17834 (67.7%)
 5 568 157 5 857 859 433 046
16 50 837  NA (Max 29k)
 -20,000 (60% at best)
     
17 42 133          
18 39 438          
Total: 5 700 565 6 001 203 300 638      

See this? Strange drop from week 14 to 15 right?

What about the strange bump for weeks 13 and 14? The difference between GT5 and GT4 sales make sence week 15, as it does follow the trend from week 12 and prior. There are different ways to view the same data, should open your eyes.

Eventhough VGC updated their numbers, this table shows some strange variations in GT5's sales tracking after the tenth week. Dropping from 55k to 37k sounds too weird to be trustable compared to other weeks,

Week 9-12, GT5 sales dropped 10k a week weekly, then they went up? Your pointing out week 15 as the unusual depression and comparing it to the only two weeks sales have been up compared to the prior week since the holiday window. Please man, take another look at the data.

just saying, expect another adjustment next time that PD updates their website, and we'll be here again to see how funnily you're gonna explain how it doesn't change your prediction.

Probably going to be a minor adjustment next week. Usually after big adjustments on VGC, they readjust within the next 3 weeks, and the profile makes a lot more sence then,

:) Because if we look closer to the EMEAA table alone:

EMEAA:      
Weeks GT4 GT5 Difference Temp GT4 TEMP GT5 Cumulative
9 74 480 62 674 -11,806 (84.1%)      
10 66 924 49 501 -17,423 (74.0%)      
11 59 963 40 238 -19,725 (67.1%)      
12 57 129 31 481 -25,648 (55.1%)      
13 51 421 41 550 -9,871 (81.8%)      
14 47 261 36 662 -10,599 (77.6%)
 2 882 308 3 694 490 850 986
15 42 534 21 486 -21,048 (50.5%)
 2 924 842 3 715 976 829 938
16 37 005 16 585
 -21.420 (44.8%)
      
17 28 093          
18 24 659          
Total: 3 014 599 3 754 780 740 181      

Then sorry but no one will make me believe that it dropped from 36k to 21k (more than 40% drop on week 15...) eventhough it was still there in most of the charts through Europe with no significant drop.

Why did you cut out, week 9-13? You can't comment on trends, but ignore them out of your tables. Look, your looking at the data in a very biased way. Your putting an emphasis on the last week of sales, but your comparing week 15 sales to week 14 sales. Week 13 and 14 sales, are inflated for whatever reason, even compared to the 4 weeks prior. To make an accurate comparision of Week 15 data, you should compare it to the general trend being made. Week 12 GT5 sold 31k, week 9 it sold 62k. The fact that GT5 only dropped 30% of sales compared to 50% before shows it's following a typical parabolic profile. It's stabilizing, but not at 40-50k worldwide. Lets see next weeks data, to see if it continues to follow this trend, which the game has been, except the 2 weeks prior. If it follows this trend, expect sales to be 15-25k in EMEAA.

BTW - Notice the attach ratio between GT5 and GT4 drop weeks 9 - 12? It resumes after the boost in sales for week 13 and 14. It's likely that week 13 and 14 sales were boosted, likely in relation to the increased hardware sales.

Please go on excel and plot this. Plot the difference in sales and total sales on a weekly basis. I'm too lazy, and I don't want to use photobucket now. You will see that if you ignore week 13 and 14, and fit a parabolic trendline, the data point for week 15 matches the trend set out by prior data points. Do it, then come back and tell me I'm wrong, tell me excel and lines of best fits are also wrong.

Week 15 sales may be low, but not as low as you paint them out to be.

Oh and in Americas:

Americas:
Weeks GT4 GT5 Difference Temp GT4 TEMP GT5 Cumulative
1 770 867 587 933 -182 934 770 867 587 933 -182 934
2 299 629 173 931 -125 698 1 070 496 761 864 -308 632
3 152 368 219 306 66 938 1 222 864 981 170 -241 694
4 95 472 182 737 87 265 1 318 336 1 163 907 -154 429
5 68 348 210 329 141 981 1 386 684 1 374 236 -12 448
6 47 451 84 831 37 380 1 434 135 1 459 067 24 932
7 31 749 40 073 8 324 1 465 884 1 499 140 33 256
8 25 951 30 526 4575 1 491 835 1 529 666 37 831
9 20 685 24 578 3893 1 512 520 1 554 244 41 724
10 18 596 21 256 2660 1 531 116 1 575 500 44 384
11 14 811 19 431 4620 1 545 927 1 594 931 49 004
12 12 871 17 992 5121 1 558 798 1 612 923 54 125
13 10 655 17 688 7033 1 569 453 1 630 611 61 158
14 9 444 16 222 6778 1 578 897 1 646 833 67 936
15 9 345 13 586 4241 1 588 242 1 660 419 72 177
16 11 059  <15k        
17 11 520          
18 12 045          
19 11 570          
20 8 855          
21 7 012          
22 5 927          
23 5 940          
Total: 1 662 170 1 660 419

- 1 751

      

Interesting GT5 15W total and GT4 23W total are almost the same, for those saying GT5 was gonna flop real hard in Americas, and sink real fast. It's tracking really good, and will for sure outsell GT4 in the long run, GT5 will for sure outsell GT4 in EMEAA too (no way it's not gonna do it), only Japan will remain superior for GT4, good luck with your 9.4m prediction happening.

For sure? it's only been 15 weeks, it's far too early to be definitive of anything. You should really come back and analyze this data again. On a weekly basis, in all EMEAA and Japan GT5 is selling more poorly then GT4, and your garenteeing that in Americas and EMEAA GT5 will outsell GT4?

There are so many different factors in play, too many to make definitive statements, especially when you don't look at trends.

The facts are, the weekly sales ratio between GT5 and GT4 has been dropping since week 5. After the holidays (week 6) we can see a sharp drop in GT5 sales, and a gradual one as the game gets older, and the holidays get further past. So as console sales drop, GT5 sales drop too, and as we approach the slower summer months, GT5 sales ratio worldwide will likely be below 50% GT4's. This will likely rebound after the holidays, but overall, GT5 will sell less then GT4, by a considerable margin.

GT5 will never surpass GT4's sales, not without significant console bundling. For it to even sell 10 million copies, it has to hold a 67-79% sales attach ratio to GT4 (depends if you use current GT4 sales, or estimated lifetime sales).

I believe the WW attatch rate will fall to 60% or so, making my predicted sales of 9.4 million spot on. I've looked at figures, and analyzed trends, and have sufficient reason to believe my claims. The fact that your going on a fritze becasue 1 user disagrees with you, shows me that you lack confidence in your prediction.

So if you feel it will sell 10 million, or 11.2 million, or 15 million, go ahead. I'l always be there to say "trends say otherwise", but your opinion is your opinion. I won't comment if you make a gramatically correct sentance and say "I think it will sell __ million." I'm fine with people having their own opinions, I don't expect any of you GT5 fans to support me (ethomaz has GT5 as an avaratar icon, and in his sig, and all over his profile, he is a fan of the franchise). All I'm doing is presenting my opinion, and defending my claim to it, it's not the end of the world because someone disagrees with you, and is logical about it.

For all we know, maybe week 15 is the abnormality, thats why I said lets wiat for next weeks data.

GJ on the charts btw.

Gran Turismo 5 didnt even register outside of EMEAA, and even in EMEAA, it only sold 16k.

Now stop hasstling me, if GT5 continues this pattern, it won't even break 9 million.Thats an observaton based of trends.

Looks like my prediction is more accurate then all of yours. :P



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Michael-5 on 19 March 2011
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:

Look if GT5 sells under 30k WW next week, I've proven my point. I'm not going to bother arguing with you guys anymore. You can fit my prediction onto an excel trend line, and I have sufficient reasoning to beleive 9.4 million sales lifetime is accurate.

You guys are entitled to your own opinion, but I'm tired of being harassed on mine.

I've made an ample case for my belief, and if you can't accept my opinion on equal grounds as your own, it's because you're not confident with your own prediction, and feel you need to lash out onto others to prove your point.

Let the figures speak for themselves..

Quote me on this, cause I'm tired of this moronic debate.

Sure, we will see in the end. You can't always deduce sales by looking at sales trends for a few weeks. Just do one thing for me, adjust the numbers (sales remaining) in your prediction (and ethomaz') in your sig ;)

Oh my sig, k I'll do that now.

Also, your right, a few weeks is not long enough to predict a trend, but it's still a better idea to make predictions on an emerging pattern, instead of just optimistic beliefs.

EDIT: Wait, sorry, can I cange that 30k WW figure above to 40k WW? I was looking at the EMEAA table when I said 30k WW, and I was tired. Last week the game sold 37k, I don't think it's going to drop 7k, but I think it will sell about the same this week as it did last. That was the intention of my post, that way the attach rate between GT5 and GT4 will still be sub 80%. I think GT5 will sell around the 35k range (which would be a 70% attach rate), but if it's 2-3k over I don't want people freaking out on me.

So Under 40k, then leave me alone. I will have made my point.

That's a little confuse now because all previous weeks was updated to > 50k before the EMEAA chartz be posted... so the only week not adjusted yet is the last one (37k).

So I can see a drop from 55k to below 50k like 45k... but 37k seem low now.

I expected new number for this week soon.

And GT5 is under 60% attach rate to GT4 this week and under 29k this week in sales.

Looks like I was right all along. Damn guys.

GT5 didnt't register, but got 16k sales in EMEAA, best we can expect for GT5 is 29k (as 40th was 29k).

:p

:P

:P



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ethomaz on 19 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:

Look if GT5 sells under 30k WW next week, I've proven my point. I'm not going to bother arguing with you guys anymore. You can fit my prediction onto an excel trend line, and I have sufficient reasoning to beleive 9.4 million sales lifetime is accurate.

You guys are entitled to your own opinion, but I'm tired of being harassed on mine.

I've made an ample case for my belief, and if you can't accept my opinion on equal grounds as your own, it's because you're not confident with your own prediction, and feel you need to lash out onto others to prove your point.

Let the figures speak for themselves..

Quote me on this, cause I'm tired of this moronic debate.

Sure, we will see in the end. You can't always deduce sales by looking at sales trends for a few weeks. Just do one thing for me, adjust the numbers (sales remaining) in your prediction (and ethomaz') in your sig ;)

Oh my sig, k I'll do that now.

Also, your right, a few weeks is not long enough to predict a trend, but it's still a better idea to make predictions on an emerging pattern, instead of just optimistic beliefs.

EDIT: Wait, sorry, can I cange that 30k WW figure above to 40k WW? I was looking at the EMEAA table when I said 30k WW, and I was tired. Last week the game sold 37k, I don't think it's going to drop 7k, but I think it will sell about the same this week as it did last. That was the intention of my post, that way the attach rate between GT5 and GT4 will still be sub 80%. I think GT5 will sell around the 35k range (which would be a 70% attach rate), but if it's 2-3k over I don't want people freaking out on me.

So Under 40k, then leave me alone. I will have made my point.

That's a little confuse now because all previous weeks was updated to > 50k before the EMEAA chartz be posted... so the only week not adjusted yet is the last one (37k).

So I can see a drop from 55k to below 50k like 45k... but 37k seem low now.

I expected new number for this week soon.

And GT5 is under 60% attach rate to GT4 this week and under 29k this week in sales.

Looks like I was right all along. Damn guys.

GT5 didnt't register, but got 16k sales in EMEAA, best we can expect for GT5 is 29k (as 40th was 29k).

:p

:P

:P

`GT5 sold 28,972.

And seems low because VGC not adjusted your data since last week... adjustments will coming soon.



DrZoidberg on 19 March 2011

good stuff from Pokemon and the DS



 

Michael-5 on 20 March 2011
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
 

And GT5 is under 60% attach rate to GT4 this week and under 29k this week in sales.

Looks like I was right all along. Damn guys.

GT5 didnt't register, but got 16k sales in EMEAA, best we can expect for GT5 is 29k (as 40th was 29k).

:p

:P

:P

`GT5 sold 28,972.

And seems low because VGC not adjusted your data since last week... adjustments will coming soon.

Why would VGC update all their past weeks, and the forget to rescale GT5 sales after that for current weeks? PS3 console sales are scaled.

I don't think GT5 has yet to be updted, that's an excuse for why the game isn't selling well. I'll trust VGC as they just adjusted GT5 sales.

If the figures on VGC ar true, GT5 is scaling 57% as well as GT4, and the ratio is still dropping (that won't change even if the numbers are re-adjusted). Just like CGI says, let the figures do the talking.

I think I have earned the credit for my prediction to be taken seriously among you guys now. I base all predictions on trends, and math. Just becase GT5 had a start as strong as GT4, doesn't mean it will sell as well in the end. I look deeper then what's just on the surface, and I have shown you guys that post Holiday season GT5 has been having trouble keeping up with corresponding GT4 weekly sales. Still, this game will do better then many have thought, and even though it's a GT game, it's also a PS3 exclusive title, one of only 2 to break 5 million sales so far. So hitting 9 million is amazing.



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Turkish on 22 March 2011

Who cares for your numbers anyway? GT5 sold 6.37 million units in the first 6 weeks, it should be above 7 if not 8 million by now. I don't care if its sold or shipped, Lets see when Sony updates GT5's numbers again. I'm sure it'll reach 10 million easily this year with all the bundles and Platinum version.



Michael-5 on 22 March 2011
Turkish said:

Who cares for your numbers anyway? GT5 sold 6.37 million units in the first 6 weeks.

No, It really didn't.

Sold and Shipped are two completly different things. Shipped games are not always sold, and can be shipped back.



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Pineapple on 23 March 2011
CGI-Quality said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:

Sure, drop and rise up again when GT5 enters it's second holiday season with possible bundling.

Yes because GT5 going into it's second holiday season will be bigger then GT4 going into it's first holiday season.. hmm....

Because that's exactly what I said...

I mean, NO GAME has gotten to 6 million as fast as GT5 and didn't make 10 million at some point, so it's crazy to think it won't. Then again, some people are set in their ways, so you have to know when to throw in the towel and let the figures speak for themselves. 

I read this, and just can't help but state that you're wrong. Grand Theft Auto IV (X360) sold 6 million in (roughly) the same time as GT5 did, but ended up selling just a bit over 9 million (it's at a bit under 9 million now, but hasn't died completely).

Modern Warfare 2 on the Ps3 sold 6.5 million in 10 weeks - far more than GT5 - yet failed to sell 10 million lifetime.

Those are the only games that sold 6 million in its first 16 weeks, but failed to sell 10 million, but that's only because there's only around 10 games that actually sold 6 million in its first 16 weks.

However, plenty of games sold more than 60% of their sales in the first 15 weeks.  Here's the top 10 Ps3 games. 

MGS4 sold roughly 60% of its sales in the first 10 weeks
Final Fantasy 13 (Ps3) saw more than 75% of its sales in the first 10 weeks.
Uncharted 2 saw nearly 60% of its sales in its first 16 weeks. 
Assassin's Creed 2 sold nearly 70% of its sales in its first 16 weeks
Black Ops (Ps3) looks to sell over 70% of its sales in its first 10 weeks
World at War (Ps3) sold 67% of its sales in its first 16 weeks
Modern Warfare 2 sold around 70% of its sales in its first 10 weeks

GTA IV (Ps3) sold a bit over 50% of its sales in its first 16 weeks. 
Modern Warfare sold 36% of its sales in its first 16 weeks

Only 2 of the Ps3's top 10 best selling games (we don't know about GT5 yet, so it might become 3) sold less than 60% of its sales in its first 16 weeks.

I'm not saying that GT5 will fare that way, but please don't try to ridicule and insult the person you're discussing with using false facts.



Michael-5 on 24 March 2011
Pineapple said:
CGI-Quality said:

I mean, NO GAME has gotten to 6 million as fast as GT5 and didn't make 10 million at some point, so it's crazy to think it won't. Then again, some people are set in their ways, so you have to know when to throw in the towel and let the figures speak for themselves. 

I read this, and just can't help but state that you're wrong. Grand Theft Auto IV (X360) sold 6 million in (roughly) the same time as GT5 did, but ended up selling just a bit over 9 million (it's at a bit under 9 million now, but hasn't died completely).

Modern Warfare 2 on the Ps3 sold 6.5 million in 10 weeks - far more than GT5 - yet failed to sell 10 million lifetime.

Those are the only games that sold 6 million in its first 16 weeks, but failed to sell 10 million, but that's only because there's only around 10 games that actually sold 6 million in its first 16 weks.

However, plenty of games sold more than 60% of their sales in the first 15 weeks.  Here's the top 10 Ps3 games. 

MGS4 sold roughly 60% of its sales in the first 10 weeks
Final Fantasy 13 (Ps3) saw more than 75% of its sales in the first 10 weeks.
Uncharted 2 saw nearly 60% of its sales in its first 16 weeks. 
Assassin's Creed 2 sold nearly 70% of its sales in its first 16 weeks
Black Ops (Ps3) looks to sell over 70% of its sales in its first 10 weeks
World at War (Ps3) sold 67% of its sales in its first 16 weeks
Modern Warfare 2 sold around 70% of its sales in its first 10 weeks

GTA IV (Ps3) sold a bit over 50% of its sales in its first 16 weeks. 
Modern Warfare sold 36% of its sales in its first 16 weeks

Only 2 of the Ps3's top 10 best selling games (we don't know about GT5 yet, so it might become 3) sold less than 60% of its sales in its first 16 weeks.

I'm not saying that GT5 will fare that way, but please don't try to ridicule and insult the person you're discussing with using false facts.

Figures speak for themselves, but some people are just set on their ways. Good job looking up that games, I used MGS4 and MW2 (PS3) as examples, but CGI just brushed off the figures. I guess some people selectively choose what data to follow, which just leads to terribly inaccurate conclusions.

BTW GT5 sold under 13k this week in EMEAA, so I doubt WW sales will be over 25k. GT4 on an equivalent week (week 17), in a slower sales period sold 28k in EMEAA (more then double GT5), and 42 WW.

This game is selling very different from a typical GT game as it was released during the holidays. It's sales are frontloaded like MGS4, and if this pattern continues, it will sell 9 million or so. Still good.



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Michael-5 on 25 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
4k1x3r said:
 

Michael Michael Michael... just for you:

Worldwide:
Weeks GT4 GT5 Difference Temp GT4 TEMP GT5 Cumulative
1 2 523 055 2 334 932 -188,123 (92.5%)
 2 523 055 2 191 588 -188 123
2 1 000 378 744 116 -256,262 (74.4%)
 3 523 433 2 935 704 -444 385
3 510 176 675 112 164,936 (132.3%)
 4 033 609 3 610 816 -279 449
4 326 608 624 977 298,369 (191.4%)
 4 360 217 4 235 793 18 920
5 231 662 585 254 353,592 (252.6%)
 4 591 879 4 821 047 372 512
6 178 044 310 094 132,050 (174.2%)
 4 769 923 5 131 141 504 562
7 137 261 171 438 34,177 (124.9%)
 4 907 184 5 302 579 538 739
8 120 989 120 100 -889 (99.3%)
 5 028 173 5 422 679 537 850
9 102 768 91 157 -11,611 (88.7%)
 5 130 941 5 513 836 526 239
10 92 089 73 757 -18,332 (80.1%)
 5 223 030 5 587 593 507 907
11 83 643 63 025 -20,618 (75.3%)
 5 306 673 5 650 618 487 289
12 77 354 52 727 -24,627 (68.2%)
 5 384 027 5 703 345 462 662
13 67 939 61 928 -6,011 (91.2%)
 5 451 966 5 765 273 456 651
14 60 955 55 184 -5,771 (90.5%)
 5 512 921 5 820 457 450 880
15 55 236 37 402 -17,834 (67.7%)
 5 568 157 5 857 859 433 046
16 50 837  Max - 29k
 -22,000 (57.0%)
     
17 42 133          
18 39 438          
Total: 5 700 565 6 001 203 300 638      

Trend: With the exception of week 13 and 14 data (due to boosted PS3 sales caused by the launch of Killzone 3 and bundles), GT5 sales ratio has been dropping

 

EMEAA:      
Weeks GT4 GT5 Difference Temp GT4 TEMP GT5 Cumulative
9 74 480 62 674 -11,806 (84.1%)      
10 66 924 49 501 -17,423 (74.0%)      
11 59 963 40 238 -19,725 (67.1%)      
12 57 129 31 481 -25,648 (55.1%)      
13 51 421 41 550 -9,871 (81.8%)      
14 47 261 36 662 -10,599 (77.6%)
 2 882 308 3 694 490 850 986
15 42 534 21 486 -21,048 (50.5%)
 2 924 842 3 715 976 829 938
16 37 005  16 585
 -20,420 (44.8%)
     
17 28 093  12 864
  -15,229 (45.8%)
      
18 24 659          
Total: 3 014 599 3 754 780 740 181      

Trend:

 

Americas:
Weeks GT4 GT5 Difference Temp GT4 TEMP GT5 Cumulative
1 770 867 587 933 -182 934 770 867 587 933 -182 934
2 299 629 173 931 -125 698 1 070 496 761 864 -308 632
3 152 368 219 306 66 938 1 222 864 981 170 -241 694
4 95 472 182 737 87 265 1 318 336 1 163 907 -154 429
5 68 348 210 329 141 981 1 386 684 1 374 236 -12 448
6 47 451 84 831 37 380 1 434 135 1 459 067 24 932
7 31 749 40 073 8 324 1 465 884 1 499 140 33 256
8 25 951 30 526 4575 1 491 835 1 529 666 37 831
9 20 685 24 578 3893 1 512 520 1 554 244 41 724
10 18 596 21 256 2660 1 531 116 1 575 500 44 384
11 14 811 19 431 4620 1 545 927 1 594 931 49 004
12 12 871 17 992 5121 1 558 798 1 612 923 54 125
13 10 655 17 688 7033 1 569 453 1 630 611 61 158
14 9 444 16 222 6778 1 578 897 1 646 833 67 936
15 9 345 13 586 4241 1 588 242 1 660 419 72 177
16 11 059  N/A (max 15k)
        
17 11 520          
18 12 045          
19 11 570          
20 8 855          
21 7 012          
22 5 927          
23 5 940          
Total: 1 662 170 1 660 419

- 1 751

      

Trend

The facts are, the weekly sales ratio between GT5 and GT4 has been dropping since week 5. After the holidays (week 6) we can see a sharp drop in GT5 sales, and a gradual one as the game gets older, and the holidays get further past. So as console sales drop, GT5 sales drop too, and as we approach the slower summer months, GT5 sales ratio worldwide will likely be below 50% GT4's. This will likely rebound after the holidays, but overall, GT5 will sell less then GT4, by a considerable margin.

Mock me, but I fitted the data from weeks 5 and onward to a trend line, and the data accuartly follows a power trend line with the equation 232.4x^(-0.529). The deviation is within 15k. That is with the 2 weeks on boosted sales due to Killzone 3. If I remove those two weeks the equation becomes 244.4x^(-0.594).

Using the second trend value for random weeks, 7, 10, 12, and 15, the actual values of the trend are 127.3% (versus 124.9%, a 1% error), 84.3% (versus 80.1%, a 5% error), 71.1% (versus 68.2%, a 4% error), and 58.8% (versus 57%, a 3% error).

Assuming GT5 sales follow this trend for the next upcomming weeks, we should see GT5 stablize around 20k weekly after week 20. GT4 stablized at about 40k, or just under. Hm... looks like, using math (figures don't lie right?), I have established GT5 will hold an attach rate of about 50% of GT4's post 20 weeks.

If GT5 manages to hold this attach rate (which will be unlikely as GT4 has yet to see it's first holiday season), and GT4 sells 11.2 units lifetime (number of shipped units of GT4). Then GT5 should sell lifetime 8.7 million units. If GT4 stops selling at 10.7 million, like VGC has it at, then GT5 will sell 8.45 million units lifetime.

Didn't I originally predict 8.5 million...hmm.... Well gosh darn it, I used logic again.

BTW, I know this is an old thread, but 4k1x3r made a really excellent table.



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