Michael-5 said:
4k1x3r said:
Michael Michael Michael... just for you:
| Worldwide: |
| Weeks |
GT4 |
GT5 |
Difference |
Temp GT4 |
TEMP GT5 |
Cumulative |
| 1 |
2 523 055 |
2 334 932 |
-188,123 (92.5%)
|
2 523 055 |
2 191 588 |
-188 123 |
| 2 |
1 000 378 |
744 116 |
-256,262 (74.4%)
|
3 523 433 |
2 935 704 |
-444 385 |
| 3 |
510 176 |
675 112 |
164,936 (132.3%)
|
4 033 609 |
3 610 816 |
-279 449 |
| 4 |
326 608 |
624 977 |
298,369 (191.4%)
|
4 360 217 |
4 235 793 |
18 920 |
| 5 |
231 662 |
585 254 |
353,592 (252.6%)
|
4 591 879 |
4 821 047 |
372 512 |
| 6 |
178 044 |
310 094 |
132,050 (174.2%)
|
4 769 923 |
5 131 141 |
504 562 |
| 7 |
137 261 |
171 438 |
34,177 (124.9%)
|
4 907 184 |
5 302 579 |
538 739 |
| 8 |
120 989 |
120 100 |
-889 (99.3%)
|
5 028 173 |
5 422 679 |
537 850 |
| 9 |
102 768 |
91 157 |
-11,611 (88.7%)
|
5 130 941 |
5 513 836 |
526 239 |
| 10 |
92 089 |
73 757 |
-18,332 (80.1%)
|
5 223 030 |
5 587 593 |
507 907 |
| 11 |
83 643 |
63 025 |
-20,618 (75.3%)
|
5 306 673 |
5 650 618 |
487 289 |
| 12 |
77 354 |
52 727 |
-24,627 (68.2%)
|
5 384 027 |
5 703 345 |
462 662 |
| 13 |
67 939 |
61 928 |
-6,011 (91.2%)
|
5 451 966 |
5 765 273 |
456 651 |
| 14 |
60 955 |
55 184 |
-5,771 (90.5%)
|
5 512 921 |
5 820 457 |
450 880 |
| 15 |
55 236 |
37 402 |
-17,834 (67.7%)
|
5 568 157 |
5 857 859 |
433 046 |
| 16 |
50 837 |
Max - 29k
|
-22,000 (57.0%)
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
42 133 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
39 438 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total: |
5 700 565 |
6 001 203 |
300 638 |
|
|
|
Trend: With the exception of week 13 and 14 data (due to boosted PS3 sales caused by the launch of Killzone 3 and bundles), GT5 sales ratio has been dropping
| EMEAA: |
| Weeks |
GT4 |
GT5 |
Difference |
Temp GT4 |
TEMP GT5 |
Cumulative |
| 9 |
74 480 |
62 674 |
-11,806 (84.1%) |
|
|
|
| 10 |
66 924 |
49 501 |
-17,423 (74.0%) |
|
|
|
| 11 |
59 963 |
40 238 |
-19,725 (67.1%) |
|
|
|
| 12 |
57 129 |
31 481 |
-25,648 (55.1%) |
|
|
|
| 13 |
51 421 |
41 550 |
-9,871 (81.8%) |
|
|
|
| 14 |
47 261 |
36 662 |
-10,599 (77.6%)
|
2 882 308 |
3 694 490 |
850 986 |
| 15 |
42 534 |
21 486 |
-21,048 (50.5%)
|
2 924 842 |
3 715 976 |
829 938 |
| 16 |
37 005 |
16 585
|
-20,420 (44.8%)
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
28 093 |
12 864
|
-15,229 (45.8%)
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
24 659 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total: |
3 014 599 |
3 754 780 |
740 181 |
|
|
|
Trend:
| Americas: |
| Weeks |
GT4 |
GT5 |
Difference |
Temp GT4 |
TEMP GT5 |
Cumulative |
| 1 |
770 867 |
587 933 |
-182 934 |
770 867 |
587 933 |
-182 934 |
| 2 |
299 629 |
173 931 |
-125 698 |
1 070 496 |
761 864 |
-308 632 |
| 3 |
152 368 |
219 306 |
66 938 |
1 222 864 |
981 170 |
-241 694 |
| 4 |
95 472 |
182 737 |
87 265 |
1 318 336 |
1 163 907 |
-154 429 |
| 5 |
68 348 |
210 329 |
141 981 |
1 386 684 |
1 374 236 |
-12 448 |
| 6 |
47 451 |
84 831 |
37 380 |
1 434 135 |
1 459 067 |
24 932 |
| 7 |
31 749 |
40 073 |
8 324 |
1 465 884 |
1 499 140 |
33 256 |
| 8 |
25 951 |
30 526 |
4575 |
1 491 835 |
1 529 666 |
37 831 |
| 9 |
20 685 |
24 578 |
3893 |
1 512 520 |
1 554 244 |
41 724 |
| 10 |
18 596 |
21 256 |
2660 |
1 531 116 |
1 575 500 |
44 384 |
| 11 |
14 811 |
19 431 |
4620 |
1 545 927 |
1 594 931 |
49 004 |
| 12 |
12 871 |
17 992 |
5121 |
1 558 798 |
1 612 923 |
54 125 |
| 13 |
10 655 |
17 688 |
7033 |
1 569 453 |
1 630 611 |
61 158 |
| 14 |
9 444 |
16 222 |
6778 |
1 578 897 |
1 646 833 |
67 936 |
| 15 |
9 345 |
13 586 |
4241 |
1 588 242 |
1 660 419 |
72 177 |
| 16 |
11 059 |
N/A (max 15k)
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
11 520 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
12 045 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 19 |
11 570 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
8 855 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
7 012 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
5 927 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
5 940 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total: |
1 662 170 |
1 660 419 |
- 1 751
|
|
|
|
Trend
|
The facts are, the weekly sales ratio between GT5 and GT4 has been dropping since week 5. After the holidays (week 6) we can see a sharp drop in GT5 sales, and a gradual one as the game gets older, and the holidays get further past. So as console sales drop, GT5 sales drop too, and as we approach the slower summer months, GT5 sales ratio worldwide will likely be below 50% GT4's. This will likely rebound after the holidays, but overall, GT5 will sell less then GT4, by a considerable margin.
|
Mock me, but I fitted the data from weeks 5 and onward to a trend line, and the data accuartly follows a power trend line with the equation 232.4x^(-0.529). The deviation is within 15k. That is with the 2 weeks on boosted sales due to Killzone 3. If I remove those two weeks the equation becomes 244.4x^(-0.594).
Using the second trend value for random weeks, 7, 10, 12, and 15, the actual values of the trend are 127.3% (versus 124.9%, a 1% error), 84.3% (versus 80.1%, a 5% error), 71.1% (versus 68.2%, a 4% error), and 58.8% (versus 57%, a 3% error).
Assuming GT5 sales follow this trend for the next upcomming weeks, we should see GT5 stablize around 20k weekly after week 20. GT4 stablized at about 40k, or just under. Hm... looks like, using math (figures don't lie right?), I have established GT5 will hold an attach rate of about 50% of GT4's post 20 weeks.
If GT5 manages to hold this attach rate (which will be unlikely as GT4 has yet to see it's first holiday season), and GT4 sells 11.2 units lifetime (number of shipped units of GT4). Then GT5 should sell lifetime 8.7 million units. If GT4 stops selling at 10.7 million, like VGC has it at, then GT5 will sell 8.45 million units lifetime.
Didn't I originally predict 8.5 million...hmm.... Well gosh darn it, I used logic again.
BTW, I know this is an old thread, but 4k1x3r made a really excellent table.
