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Forums - Sales - Worldwide up!

ethomaz on 16 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:

Look if GT5 sells under 30k WW next week, I've proven my point. I'm not going to bother arguing with you guys anymore. You can fit my prediction onto an excel trend line, and I have sufficient reasoning to beleive 9.4 million sales lifetime is accurate.

You guys are entitled to your own opinion, but I'm tired of being harassed on mine.

I've made an ample case for my belief, and if you can't accept my opinion on equal grounds as your own, it's because you're not confident with your own prediction, and feel you need to lash out onto others to prove your point.

Let the figures speak for themselves..

Quote me on this, cause I'm tired of this moronic debate.

Sure, we will see in the end. You can't always deduce sales by looking at sales trends for a few weeks. Just do one thing for me, adjust the numbers (sales remaining) in your prediction (and ethomaz') in your sig ;)

Oh my sig, k I'll do that now.

Also, your right, a few weeks is not long enough to predict a trend, but it's still a better idea to make predictions on an emerging pattern, instead of just optimistic beliefs.

EDIT: Wait, sorry, can I cange that 30k WW figure above to 40k WW? I was looking at the EMEAA table when I said 30k WW, and I was tired. Last week the game sold 37k, I don't think it's going to drop 7k, but I think it will sell about the same this week as it did last. That was the intention of my post, that way the attach rate between GT5 and GT4 will still be sub 80%. I think GT5 will sell around the 35k range (which would be a 70% attach rate), but if it's 2-3k over I don't want people freaking out on me.

So Under 40k, then leave me alone. I will have made my point.

That's a little confuse now because all previous weeks was updated to > 50k before the EMEAA chartz be posted... so the only week not adjusted yet is the last one (37k).

So I can see a drop from 55k to below 50k like 45k... but 37k seem low now.

I expected new number for this week soon.



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MightyGrogg on 16 March 2011
Conegamer said:

DS>3DS. 3DS is d00med!

Nah, awesome for pokemon

 

(Also, unrelated, but is anyone else having difficulty accessing the site?)

It's because of 3DS shortages. Nintendo isn't able to make them fast enough at the moment.



MightyGrogg on 16 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:

ethomaz did this on the EMEAA Up chart, and since Gran Turismo 5 is 15 weeks old, and worldwide sales are largly debated, I thought it would be smart to do this for worldwide figures. So here are a bunch of current gen games, and their 15 week figures, lets see how GT5 did with it's most recent adjustment. Since GT5 did sell pretty low compared to a lot of worldwide debuts, I will make the list include everything above 5 million sales

  • New Super Mario Bros Wii - 12,590k
  • CoD: Black Ops (360) - 11,668k
  • Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 10,052k
  • CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (360) - 9,754k
  • Wii Fit Plus - 9,497k
  • CoD: Black Ops (PS3) - 9,360k
  • Kinect Adventures! - 8,772k
  • Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver - 7,643k
  • Halo: Reach - 7,397k
  • CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3) - 7,019k
  • Halo 3 - 6,959k
  • Mario Kart Wii - 6,527k
  • GT5 - 6,013k
  • Wii Sports Resorts - 5,959k
  • Wii Fit - 5,750k
  • Just Dance 2 - 5,538k
  • New Super Mario Bros. DS - 5,433k
  • Pokemon Platnium - 5,200k

    • Am I missing anything? Not bad for GT5, behind MW2, but the game will have better legs. By comparision GT4 only sold 5,478k by this point. However GT5 weekly sales are 60% GT4's and the weeks it sold better to get this ratio were holiday weeks, where sales are inflated (GT4 was launched in February for US, March for EMEAA, and the very end of December in Japan.

    No, they aren't....

    Was recently adjusted lay off man. It's 79%, but likely to drop.

    You are forgetting one thing. When GT4 was out it had way more PS2 sold to consumers then what the PS3 has now. GT5's legs won't be the same as GT4. GT4 was also a lot more popular in the U.S. then GT5 is now. So it's legs will rely mostly on EMEA sales. Japan GT5 sales are dismal right now.



    MightyGrogg on 16 March 2011
    CGI-Quality said:
    MightyGrogg said:

    You are forgetting one thing. When GT4 was out it has wat more PS2 sold to consumers then what the PS3 has now. GT5's legs won't be the same as GT4. GT4 was also a lot more popular in the U.S. then GT5 is now. So it's legs will rely mostly on EMEA sales. Japan GT5 sales are dismal right now.

    Actually, GT5 is performing on par with GT4 in the Americas (it only has to reach 2.8mill there to catch GT4 and it's already at 1.61mill (at a similar rate to GT4). It's only real blunder is Japan (which EMEAA will make up for and then some).

    How many PS2 were in sold at this time period? How many PS3 are sold in same time period. Was there a recession and economical problems at that time period when GT4 was out? How many more do they need to sell in EMEA & JAPA?GT5 is at 6 million. It has to sell another 4.5 million copies to catch GT4. Unless Sony does a couple more bundles during the holidays, I do see them reaching that goal. They should hit 8 million maybe, but by June total sales will be below 10K a week worldwide.



    ethomaz on 16 March 2011
    MightyGrogg said:
    CGI-Quality said:
    MightyGrogg said:

    You are forgetting one thing. When GT4 was out it has wat more PS2 sold to consumers then what the PS3 has now. GT5's legs won't be the same as GT4. GT4 was also a lot more popular in the U.S. then GT5 is now. So it's legs will rely mostly on EMEA sales. Japan GT5 sales are dismal right now.

    Actually, GT5 is performing on par with GT4 in the Americas (it only has to reach 2.8mill there to catch GT4 and it's already at 1.61mill (at a similar rate to GT4). It's only real blunder is Japan (which EMEAA will make up for and then some).

    How many PS2 were in sold at this time period? How many PS3 are sold in same time period. Was there a recession and economical problems at that time period when GT4 was out? How many more do they need to sell in EMEA & JAPA?GT5 is at 6 million. It has to sell another 4.5 million copies to catch GT4. Unless Sony does a couple more bundles during the holidays, I do see them reaching that goal. They should hit 8 million maybe, but by June total sales will be below 10K a week worldwide.

    No way... no game that sold 6 million in its first quarter ended with only 8 million lifetime.

    People here believe that GT5 should stop selling anytime... no it will sell until the end of this generation (2015? 2016?).



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    Michael-5 on 16 March 2011
    ethomaz said:
    Michael-5 said:

    Oh my sig, k I'll do that now.

    Also, your right, a few weeks is not long enough to predict a trend, but it's still a better idea to make predictions on an emerging pattern, instead of just optimistic beliefs.

    EDIT: Wait, sorry, can I cange that 30k WW figure above to 40k WW? I was looking at the EMEAA table when I said 30k WW, and I was tired. Last week the game sold 37k, I don't think it's going to drop 7k, but I think it will sell about the same this week as it did last. That was the intention of my post, that way the attach rate between GT5 and GT4 will still be sub 80%. I think GT5 will sell around the 35k range (which would be a 70% attach rate), but if it's 2-3k over I don't want people freaking out on me.

    So Under 40k, then leave me alone. I will have made my point.

    That's a little confuse now because all previous weeks was updated to > 50k before the EMEAA chartz be posted... so the only week not adjusted yet is the last one (37k).

    So I can see a drop from 55k to below 50k like 45k... but 37k seem low now.

    I expected new number for this week soon.

    You do realize sales drop on a weekly basis from launch? Do you not see that even before last weeks numbers, weekly sales drop by 5-10k weekly? I think last weeks 37k figure makes sence (only 15k lower then 3 weeks prior, and 20k lower then 4 weeks prior). I don't think that figure will be adjusted much.

    See this is where our different views on GT5 take place. I notice that sales drop weekly, and I think they will continue to drop over the upcoming weeks. You think the game will stabilize at this point. Only time will tell who is right, and I'm just getting tired of arguing. It's a waste of time, we just have different opinions.



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    Michael-5 on 16 March 2011
    MightyGrogg said:
    CGI-Quality said:
    MightyGrogg said:

    You are forgetting one thing. When GT4 was out it has wat more PS2 sold to consumers then what the PS3 has now. GT5's legs won't be the same as GT4. GT4 was also a lot more popular in the U.S. then GT5 is now. So it's legs will rely mostly on EMEA sales. Japan GT5 sales are dismal right now.

    Actually, GT5 is performing on par with GT4 in the Americas (it only has to reach 2.8mill there to catch GT4 and it's already at 1.61mill (at a similar rate to GT4). It's only real blunder is Japan (which EMEAA will make up for and then some).

    How many PS2 were in sold at this time period? How many PS3 are sold in same time period. Was there a recession and economical problems at that time period when GT4 was out? How many more do they need to sell in EMEA & JAPA?GT5 is at 6 million. It has to sell another 4.5 million copies to catch GT4. Unless Sony does a couple more bundles during the holidays, I do see them reaching that goal. They should hit 8 million maybe, but by June total sales will be below 10K a week worldwide.

    I've done the math on this. For GT5 to sell just 10 million units it needs to sell 79% as well as GT4 for the reamining weeks. Recently the attach rate has dropped slightly below 80%, but it's still too early to tell where it's going to stablize. I think GT5 sales will likely stabilize around 60% of GT4's remaining weekly sales, so to me an 8.5-9.4 million ranges seems likely. 8 million is a bit low, Forza 3 sold 1.8 million units since last year at this point, but 1 million were due from bundling. Still GT5 should be able to do at least double Forza 3's weekly sales, so 8 million should be a bare minimum, if and only if all things went sour for PD.



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    Michael-5 on 16 March 2011
    ethomaz said:

    No way... no game that sold 6 million in its first quarter ended with only 8 million lifetime.

    People here believe that GT5 should stop selling anytime... no it will sell until the end of this generation (2015? 2016?).

    GT4 is still selling, maybe only 100k a year, but it's still selling. That was a winter 2005 title.

    BTW, you think the end of the gen will be 2015? All consoles except the 360 are down Year on Year and weekly, and I really think a Wii successor is due in 2012. Sony have also said that they only expect a 10 year lifespan for PS3, including the time that PS3 sells after PS4 is released. It will take AT LEAST 3 years for PS3 to stop selling after the PS4 is released, so 2013 is the latest a PS4 will take until release. Also there is no way the 360 stays on the market a solid decade, 8 years max. However we may not hear about successors to the PS3/360 until 2012 E3.



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    Halo_Reach on 16 March 2011
    Michael-5 said:
    MightyGrogg said:
    CGI-Quality said:
    MightyGrogg said:

    You are forgetting one thing. When GT4 was out it has wat more PS2 sold to consumers then what the PS3 has now. GT5's legs won't be the same as GT4. GT4 was also a lot more popular in the U.S. then GT5 is now. So it's legs will rely mostly on EMEA sales. Japan GT5 sales are dismal right now.

    Actually, GT5 is performing on par with GT4 in the Americas (it only has to reach 2.8mill there to catch GT4 and it's already at 1.61mill (at a similar rate to GT4). It's only real blunder is Japan (which EMEAA will make up for and then some).

    How many PS2 were in sold at this time period? How many PS3 are sold in same time period. Was there a recession and economical problems at that time period when GT4 was out? How many more do they need to sell in EMEA & JAPA?GT5 is at 6 million. It has to sell another 4.5 million copies to catch GT4. Unless Sony does a couple more bundles during the holidays, I do see them reaching that goal. They should hit 8 million maybe, but by June total sales will be below 10K a week worldwide.

    I've done the math on this. For GT5 to sell just 10 million units it needs to sell 79% as well as GT4 for the reamining weeks. Recently the attach rate has dropped slightly below 80%, but it's still too early to tell where it's going to stablize. I think GT5 sales will likely stabilize around 60% of GT4's remaining weekly sales, so to me an 8.5-9.4 million ranges seems likely. 8 million is a bit low, Forza 3 sold 1.8 million units since last year at this point, but 1 million were due from bundling. Still GT5 should be able to do at least double Forza 3's weekly sales, so 8 million should be a bare minimum, if and only if all things went sour for PD.

    Actually, GT5 is performing on par with GT4 in the Americas (it only has to reach 2.8mill there to catch GT4 and it's already at 1.61mill (at a similar rate to GT4). It's only real blunder is Japan (which EMEAA will make up for and then some). ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

     

    you are seeming to ignore this HUGE tidbit of info, gt4 launched in march...gt5 launched on black friday week!!!!! that is crazy that you wanna give gt5 the same credit- if it launched in march like gt4 it wouldnt even of sold half



    http://i959.photobucket.com/albums/ae80/Gamespot_Hobbsey07/1245587468_spinning-baseball-bat.gif

    Halo_Reach on 16 March 2011
    CGI-Quality said:
    Halo_Reach said:

    Actually, GT5 is performing on par with GT4 in the Americas (it only has to reach 2.8mill there to catch GT4 and it's already at 1.61mill (at a similar rate to GT4). It's only real blunder is Japan (which EMEAA will make up for and then some). ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

     

    you are seeming to ignore this HUGE tidbit of info, gt4 launched in march...gt5 launched on black friday week!!!!! that is crazy that you wanna give gt5 the same credit- if it launched in march like gt4 it wouldnt even of sold half

    Lol....why'd you quote a different poster with my response? O.o

    Regardless, you're speaking out of sheer speculation (and because GT5 didn't launch outside of a holiday period, it will always be speculation).

    Bottom line,  GT5 is performing like GT4 in the States. I can only imagine that the holiday helped to front-load the sales, but not add any incredible, extra amount (and the numbers don't reflect such an assumption).

    again i quoted your post because it was the one that i wanted to quote, it was the one that was ignoring the facts- and are u kidding me, speculation ! you saying that a game that launches in march is going to sell the same as one that launches at the absolute height of the holiday season....and wait till the first holiday weeks for gt4 and the same week for gt5 and you will see a major difference



    http://i959.photobucket.com/albums/ae80/Gamespot_Hobbsey07/1245587468_spinning-baseball-bat.gif