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Pineapple on 12 March 2011
ethomaz said:
Pineapple said:

For a comparison, here's the EMEAA openings for the other Pokemon titles we have data for, which sadly is limited to the DS only.

Diamond/Pearl - 483k
Platinum - 319k (Added the data for the "true" week 1 and the week before in which 34k were sold pre-release date)
Heart Gold/Soul Silver - 477k
Black/White - 627k

It's starting quite well. I'd put it in the 4.5 - 5 million range for lifetime EMEAA sales (a tad shy of Diamond/Pearl)

Regarding the EMEAA sales, how high do you reckon GT5 will go? Here's the best selling games this generation in EMEAA. Multiplatform, only titles above 5 million (as GT5 will obviously reach that, and should outsell any title which hasn't yet reached it). I might be missing a multiplatform or two; i just updated an old list.

Wii Sports - 31.09 million
1. Nintendogs - 12.42 million
2. Mario Kart Wii - 11.78 million
3. Wii Play - 10.6 million
4. Brain Age - 10.55 million
5. Wii Sports Resort - 10.36 million
6. Wii Fit - 9.52 million
7. NSMB DS - 9.24 million
8. Mario Kart DS - 8.06 million
9. Wii Fit Plus - 7.91 million
10. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS360) - 7.67 million
11. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Ps360) - 7.55 million
12. Fifa 11 (all platforms)- 7.33 million
13. Mario & Sonic (Wii DS) - 7.07 million
14. GTA IV (Ps360)- 6.98 million
15. Fifa 10 - 6.84 million
16. Brain Age 2 - 6.19 million
17. New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 6.14 million
18. Fifa 09 - 5.21 million
19. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (Ps360)- 5.05 million
20. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 5 million

Reaching the top 10 is almost definitely out of the question, but it might have a shot at making the top 20. I'd expect Fifa 12 to pass GT5 at the very least, and the next Call of Duty too. I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to release another game that will sell 5 million in EMEAA either, but apart from that, I don't see any games that can really do it.

Of course, if it makes 7.1 million, it might make the 15th spot. (NSMB Wii will almost definitely beat GT5 in total numbers, and GTA IV will definitely get to 7.5 million, if not 8.

So somewhere between the 15th best selling and the 20th best selling game in EMEAA this generation. That's really quite nice.

You are using combined sales... intersting but not fair because GT5 has the disadvantage here.

I think you missed my point completely. I'm not comparing GT5's current sales to the sales on that list, I'm comparing those sales to the sales one could expect GT5 to end up having.

While it ends up being speculative, it's definitely far better a view than the first 15 weeks, as they're completely skewed by some titles having had a holiday season while others haven't.



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ethomaz on 12 March 2011
Pineapple said:
I think you missed my point completely. I'm not comparing GT5's current sales to the sales on that list, I'm comparing those sales to the sales one could expect GT5 to end up having.

While it ends up being speculative, it's definitely far better a view than the first 15 weeks, as they're completely skewed by some titles having had a holiday season while others haven't.

No. I got your point but disagree with combined sales.

And most games I listed had the same holiday boost like GT5 even more had a complete Black Friday week... Black Ops, Halo 3, Reach, Modern Warfare 2, etc.

And didn't choice first 15 weeks... that's what we have now... in future I will make a list with 20, 50 and more weeks... made a comparison 15 weeks GT5 with life to date is way worst than my comparison.



postofficebuddy on 12 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
postofficebuddy said:


We were undertracking everything in Americas last month. Wii and PS3 more so than 360. It's really too hard to call with how how things will be spaced in Americas.

Other way around. Wii was severly undertracked (150k or so), and PS3/360 were less undertracked, but still both by about 50k. So it's Wii more so then PS3 and 360.

Note: 360 was adjusted down again for January. Shortages that took place in the first 2 weeks look more severe now, which explains the 200k worldwide difference.


I didn't say PS3 was undertracked more than Wii, I just said they were both undertracked more than 360. And as we can see the resulting adjustments benefitted those consoles more.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3956826



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2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

Pineapple on 12 March 2011
ethomaz said:
Pineapple said:
I think you missed my point completely. I'm not comparing GT5's current sales to the sales on that list, I'm comparing those sales to the sales one could expect GT5 to end up having.

While it ends up being speculative, it's definitely far better a view than the first 15 weeks, as they're completely skewed by some titles having had a holiday season while others haven't.

No. I got your point but disagree with combined sales.

And most games I listed had the same holiday boost like GT5 even more had a complete Black Friday week... Black Ops, Halo 3, Reach, Modern Warfare 2, etc.

And didn't choice first 15 weeks... that's what we have now... in future I will make a list with 20, 50 and more weeks... made a comparison 15 weeks GT5 with life to date is way worst than my comparison.

You're claiming you got my point, but your last point kind of makes it evident you didn't. I don't really know how to explain it any better either, sorry. 



Beuli2 on 12 March 2011
Nintendogamer said:

Can Nintendo meet their projection of 86.93M ( 2.3M) end of march? with these numbers they could be about 100K over their projection, 87M plus.

Even if it sold like this for the four remaining weeks, it wold only sell only 720k.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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ethomaz on 12 March 2011

Wrong place.



Michael-5 on 13 March 2011
pezus said:

Michael-5: what have you got to say about GT5's sales now that they have been adjusted up by a lot?

They were adjusted by 400k, that's not a lot. GT5's sales still dropped significantly post holiday season, weekly sales are still tracking at about 2/3rds GT4's sales, and at this rate, it's still going to fall within my predicted gap of 8.5-9.4 million lifetime sales.



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Michael-5 on 13 March 2011
postofficebuddy said:
Michael-5 said:
postofficebuddy said:


We were undertracking everything in Americas last month. Wii and PS3 more so than 360. It's really too hard to call with how how things will be spaced in Americas.

Other way around. Wii was severly undertracked (150k or so), and PS3/360 were less undertracked, but still both by about 50k. So it's Wii more so then PS3 and 360.

Note: 360 was adjusted down again for January. Shortages that took place in the first 2 weeks look more severe now, which explains the 200k worldwide difference.


I didn't say PS3 was undertracked more than Wii, I just said they were both undertracked more than 360. And as we can see the resulting adjustments benefitted those consoles more.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3956826

K cool, but Wii sales were adjusted the most. PS3 and 360 sales really didn't change too extremely. I dunno why your making the separation between Wii/PS3 over 360 instead of Wii over PS3/360.



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ethomaz on 13 March 2011
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:

Michael-5: what have you got to say about GT5's sales now that they have been adjusted up by a lot?

They were adjusted by 400k, that's not a lot. GT5's sales still dropped significantly post holiday season, weekly sales are still tracking at about 2/3rds GT4's sales, and at this rate, it's still going to fall within my predicted gap of 8.5-9.4 million lifetime sales.

O.O LOL 400k is so little.

And except last week GT5 is tracking just 10% below GT4 weekly.



Michael-5 on 13 March 2011
CGI-Quality said:

An adjustment by over 400k isn't a lot? lol.....

OT: Looks like LBP2 is tracking a bit behind LBP1 now, but could/should have nice legs in the long run, GT5 continues it's trek to 10 million with it's 6,013,203 in 15 weeks (and should clear 10mill by early-mid 2013), and Killzone 3 should leg it's way to 1.5 mill or so in the region!

400k adjustment on 5.6 million sold is a 7% adjustment. It's noticable, but GT5 fans have been whining about GT5 sales being severly undertracked since the game was launched. This hardly changes how the game is selling, and its likely lifetime sales. I still really doubt 10 million, as it opposses the trend it's setting, but your free to believe what you like. Maybe it will getting bundled like GT3, you never know.



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