I'll admit I'm new to this whole console tracking thing, and I'll admit I have my favorites, but here's where I have my in.

I work for a gaming company. Currently we have 20 PS3's sitting on the shelves (normally we have 4-5 of any system). Corporate ships us 3-4 every 2-3 weeks...Now doing the math, it's not selling that well in my area 

Those key words "in my area", don't seem to apply to just "my area". There're worldwide reports of PS3's just sitting on the shelves, waiting to be sold. 

Here's the comparison, I haven't worked a shift yet where I haven't gotten at least 20 calls with people asking for Wiis. Add that to the 50 who actually come inside the store with the sole purpose of asking for one, and then leaving with their heads hung low when we chuckle and tell them no dice. When we actually do get Wiis, it's in shipment of 3-6, and they're gone within 6 minutes.

 It's not that I don't like Sony. I own a PS2, and I love it, I just think that they could've done a better job with their brand new, state-of-the-art system.

Hindsight is 20/20 yes, but if millions upon millions of dollars are on the line, you can't afford to rely on the hindsight. 

If Nintendo could produce Wii's at a faster rate then the Wii would be the number one selling console by August.

1 - you dont factor in New kick ass software that will drive NA/Eu hardware sales. (not sure about J releases)

2 - Its called Xmas, PS3 will have no trouble doing over 2 million in Nov/Dec world wide.

then thers is the  possibility of a price cut and MGS4 hiting in 07

I think the big thing Nintendo needs to prove is that the system's got legs. A strong Nintendo launch is not unusual. Keeping it up for another year would be. If they can pull it off, then we may be looking at a new dynamic in the market where they may have a shot at a strong second.

For Sony, they have both the blessing and curse that PS2 is still so damn strong, while Gamecube and Xbox are dead and buried. At least next year post-holiday Sony will be on the PS3 bandwagon instead of the PS2 one with everyone else. Price is definitely a concern, though, and I'd put the magic number at $400.

If Sony sells 30 million units, it's a failure. If the other two sell 30 million units, it's a success, or at least not a failure.

I have the same issue with Sony winning. If they can get away with shoving Blu-ray down our throats, and they probably will, what will they try next time? I wouldn't want to see Nintendo win either because they'll just retard technological growth. I'd be okay with Microsoft winning, not that I see it happening.

5 months in, and despite all the hype, we still do not have an announcement that Wii is getting an exclusive the likes of Resident Evil for Gamecube, and I don't expect to either. This time around, it's not even that easy to do ports for Nintendo. You can only move so many systems based on Nintendo's games alone, as we've seen in the past. They need to convince third parties the system is not a joke and to bring out major games like FF, GTA, and MGS (if they do, they need to then help with the marketing so that these games actually sell instead of getting lost like all the other third party games on Nintendo systems), and at the very least they need to get back to the days before they lost all their second party developers.