There have been quite a few firsts this gen..

How long before a 3DS game tops the chart?

Not looking likely in March, save for the last week, unless DQMJ2 Professional on DS prevents it, as there's Naruto and Baseball games for the 3DS which would be the biggest launches next to the DQ spinoff.

First week of April perhaps? One Piece could be big enough to top the charts.

If it doesn't happen in any of those weeks, unless some games show big legs, I won't expect it to happen until after E3 with Zelda OoT

It'll be One Piece week, it's easily the biggest title that week and there's not really anything beforehand with legs guaranteed to put it ahead.  I think One Piece 3DS could be huge though, even though it's a port.

Naruto 3DS will probably do okay, but not lead it's week (DQMJ2Pro will, for sure).  The 3DS baseball games will somewhat cannibalize each other upfront, and Konami's game will probably sell more on PS3/PSP 1st week anyway.

There's a slim chance Gundam or DOA might do it their week, but I think FFIV PSP will come out ahead.

Wii numbers are just getting ugly, particularly in Japan. What I see the console as in the long run is a very fast selling, very successful console that could have been much MORE successful, and never fully reached its potential, thanks in large part to third parties freezing it out with their lack of support as well as Nintendo not following through on their original vision for the console. In the end though it'll obviously remain atop the charts in lifetime sales so I suppose the numbers now don't fankly matter. And it's not like detering third parties will be an issue at this point because they were never there to begin with.

3DS is performing strongly, though I expected a bit more out of the games sales. 3DS is sort of a double edged sword for Nintendo's handheld business in Japan. On the one hand, they are obtaining a huge lead over Sony's next portable console which could be beneficial for third party support and recognition in the industry, yet on the other hand, they have chopped the lifespan of the original DS short and thus are allowing PSP to inch ever closer, which baffling to me, continues to sell strongly. Though again, obviously DS will remain on top, just with a smaller gap.

Should be noted that 3DS has a fairly normal launch attach ratio (slightly below DS, slightly above PSP), but the built in software (AR Games, Mii streetpass stuff) might be discouraging some additional game sales.   Unlike DS or PSP initially, you can really just buy a 3DS alone and still have plenty to do with it.

Wii is selling above my expectations so I'm happy.

Zelda isn't that big in Japan so wy would it be on top?

The hell were your expectations?

(Data gathering, thread OP died)

PSP will own the 3DS!  You'll see! *shakes fist*

well you've seen them, here they are:  ( worldwide numbers)

125K – 5th Mar            -

85.341M -

123K – 12th Mar          -

85.464M -

118K – 19th Mar          -

85.582M -

114K – 26th Mar          -

85.696M -

101K – 2nd Apr            -

85.797M          -