They will be the first. However if they do so more than a year in advance to Sony and Microsoft and with lower specs I can see third parties only flooding it with current gen HD games. Either way it's impossible to do as well as Wii has.

I think between having the most capable technology and likely a fast growing base, Wii would be able to amass more than decent support quickly, and not get restricted to the "worst version" plague than GameCube and (early on) PS3 suffered.  Nintendo always prioritizes ease of use and architecture efficiency, getting up to speed on their next platform will probably be a trivial hurdle for most, especially with today's reliance on middleware.

Wii's market performance will also weigh heavily on publisher's minds, they won't want to get left out like last time. I mean, then why are any Japanese publishers bothering with 3DS when PSP already has a healthy and active 16m base?  Your "biggest base" scenario doesn't really seem to align at all with past precedent, Wii 2 will simply give 3rd parties another target system in their multiplatform toolchain schedules.  And if Wii 2 is fast growing (like Wii 1 was), with explosive upfront software sales (like Wii 1 had) it may also start to squeeze out one of the current HD systems (likely the last placer, depending on the market).  Your 3rd wheel outcome really seems more like a worst case scenario, even with mediocre 3rd party support (which I'd find doubtful, not just due to the market circumstances today but also Nintendo's new clear commitment to attracting 3rd party content early on), Wii 2 would still have Nintendo's own games to drive the hardware.

And I think home consoles at large are doomed to irrelevance in Japan regardless.  Honestly, I don't see Wii 2 really reversing that trend, regardless of how things play out.  Where Wii 2 would keep Nintendo going strong is the west, which is also where a "Zombie Wii 1" would be a clear losing strategy.

You're right in that my worst case scenario was only taking third parties into account. If Nintendo could provide enough momentum to Wii2 on its own, that could prevent the problems i outlined from coming to pass and give the system critical positive momentum right out of the gate, which would then make Nintendo's position all the stronger when it would come time to move on to the back-breaking PS4/X3 development if they had an 8th gen platform that they were already familiar with that still had some good years of life left in it and proved a lucrative market to work in. But all that hedges on the unpredictable (i.e. what will Nintendo's big hook be, and can they recreate an explosive phenomenon?)

I have always assumed Nintendo would continue to follow the five year console life span, and had always intended to from day one, which is why Wii isn't in HD.

On the flipside I don't think Nintendo has ever been first to market home console wise, but I don't see any value to them waiting and lots to breaking new ground and stealing attention away from the 'same old things of PS360'.

As for having to compete with the installed bases of PS360 - I don't expect the next console to be Wii HD.   I don't expect it to be easily portable for HD games even.   I expect it to be so revolutionary, that it'll be it's own thing and will be the next hot thing like DS/Wii/3DS.  3rd parties will go whatever there's money to be made, including Wii 2 whatever it is.

I think its pretty much guaranteed they will at this point.  Nintendo can try to ride out on the Wii for this holiday but by the next holiday the HAVE to have a new console.  The Wii was and IS a great console but the 3rd party support for the system is really falling away and from a tech standpoint its really starting to become dated.

At this point people can get 360's and PS3's for not that much more than a Wii and they have better tech and motion controls.  And something that really is affecting the Wii I think at this point is the complete non-support of online gameing.  Whether Nintendo wants to get in on it or not it is the future of gaming and pepole want to play there Call of Duty's and Halo's and such online with friends and Nintendo is doing just about nothing to support them.  Basically Nintendo was revolutionary this gen with motion control and going after the "Blue Ocean" crowd but the same things that made them hugely successful are the same things that make them in desperate need to launch a new console if they want to be 1st again next-gen.

yep everybody thinks 2012 so it must be true lol. sony and microsoft aint gonna release for awhile considering how they just launched some key selling points.

I say yes b/c Sony/Microsoft are going to milk their consoles until they can get every penny out. Nintendo will release a new console b/c they know the Wii will max out soon.

Will Nintendo be first to market? I think they might be.

A few days ago their was a job posting from Microsoft to find staff to work on a future console. However I doubt they are only now beginning development as some sources are indicating. Fact is two years ago Microsoft was hiring staff for 343 to work on a next-generation Halo title. I fully believe Microsoft has been working on their next platform for quite some time and had it ready in case Kinect failed. If Kinect had failed I would have expected Microsoft's next console to be revealed at this E3. Now because Kinect did well I don't expect Microsoft to reveal their next console until E3 2012 or possibly even release and reveal in 2013.

Sony, Sony is the least likely to go first. Sony is only now turning a profit off of PS3 and sales of the hardware are improving. Move has failed to truly have Wii like success but its still marginally successful. Sony has a large software line up ready for 2011 and I have no doubt that they have software for 2012 lined up. I expect Sony to wait for Nintendo and or Microsoft to make their move first. However just like Microsoft I think Sony had a console near completion last year incase hardware sales dropped to far.

Nintendo, is most likely to launch first. I expect an unvieling at this years E3 whether it be a big unvieling like E3 2006 or a small one like E3 2005 I do not know. I expect the console to launch in 2012. Just look at the software currently in development. I was shocked when I read my issue of NP this month and saw that DS and 3DS both had more software coming then Wii. Wii is dying slowly, it is in much need of a replacement as DS is or was, despite strong hardware sales software is dropping fast. However Nintendo usually does not launch first, as Iwata said when Wii was announced Nintendo likes to hold its cards close to its chest. So this means Nintendo might sacrafice sales to wait it out for Sony or MS. Nintendo's hardware sales will be strong enough that they could ride this out for awhile until MS or Sony reveal new hardware. I'd say theirs a 70% chance the new system launches in 2012 a 25% chance it comes in 2013 and a 5% chance it waits till 2014, just to put things in perspective. Though I am rather confident Nintendo will shoot first.

As for specs. Some indicating BluRay, 3D etc...etc... No I don't think the next Nintendo console will use BluRay's, Nintendo has rarely ever used the same media as its competitors infact after SNES Nintendo has constantly used different formats then the competition. I don't expect that to change. Will the next Nintendo system feature glasses based 3D? Not likely their isn't a large enough market for that. Not to mention Nintendo just put alot of emphasis that glasses are a thing of the past I doubt they would follow the competition. However HD is a reality I expect the next Nintendo system to feature HD visuals, heck Miyamoto confirmed this years ago saying the next Nintendo system would be HD. Now how about graphical power, Nintendo has been pumping over 300-million dollars a year into R&D last I heard, compared to around 150-million during GameCube and into the beginning of Wii. I think this indicates that the next console could pack a pretty graphical punch. I bet it will be 2-3x the PS3 not the biggest increase like seen in past generations and I bet Nintendo will keep it almost gaming exclusive as they have done for Wii. I suspect the next console will launch at 279USD-350USD assuming the US currency remains stable till late 2012.

Thats my predictions for the day!

Hopefully MS won't rush HW this time around and don't release a console that supposedly dies eventually. I have a 360 elite, older model that hasn't died yet but friends launch core died the other day, feeling sorry for him :l. I think Nintendo will be first, then MS then Sony. I don't think that the gap between the last two will be drastic. However the gap between next Wii and next Xbox could be a year plus.

yeah I think Nintendo wil def come out with their system first

I'm guessing that Wii 2 (or whatever they will call it) will be out November 2012

They most likely won't say anthing at E3 or if they do it will be close to nothing...it will most likely be a year to 14 months before they mention it