Will the be a wii2 be the first one to market?

[Mr Khan]

jarrod said:

Mr Khan said:

The only problem being it would just shift all of Nintendo's current problems with the Wii ahead, much as Pachter predicted: they'd still be the console in the middle where the market for 3rd party titles is less developed, and they'd still be getting inferior PS360 ports, but for different reasons (they're the new platform that devs haven't mastered), and there's the question of bothering to port to this newer device with zero marketshare compared to the 120-million strong (by that point) PS360 userbase, even in Japan where Nintendo needs a hardware refresh the most, you would have more PS3's out there than N6's, which would void the whole purpose.

It would only come to Nintendo's advantage later on down the line when it does come time to move on to PS4 and X3, when they could take advantage of publishers' skittishness on breaking the bank, but the damage could be done after 3 or so years of mediocre support

Under your scenario, they'd be better off keeping the Wii alive even as a zombie and wait out Sony and Microsoft, even though that would doom them to irrelevance in Japan, but they've been down that road before and come out just fine in the long run

I think between having the most capable technology and likely a fast growing base, Wii would be able to amass more than decent support quickly, and not get restricted to the "worst version" plague than GameCube and (early on) PS3 suffered.  Nintendo always prioritizes ease of use and architecture efficiency, getting up to speed on their next platform will probably be a trivial hurdle for most, especially with today's reliance on middleware.

Wii's market performance will also weigh heavily on publisher's minds, they won't want to get left out like last time. I mean, then why are any Japanese publishers bothering with 3DS when PSP already has a healthy and active 16m base?  Your "biggest base" scenario doesn't really seem to align at all with past precedent, Wii 2 will simply give 3rd parties another target system in their multiplatform toolchain schedules.  And if Wii 2 is fast growing (like Wii 1 was), with explosive upfront software sales (like Wii 1 had) it may also start to squeeze out one of the current HD systems (likely the last placer, depending on the market).  Your 3rd wheel outcome really seems more like a worst case scenario, even with mediocre 3rd party support (which I'd find doubtful, not just due to the market circumstances today but also Nintendo's new clear commitment to attracting 3rd party content early on), Wii 2 would still have Nintendo's own games to drive the hardware.

And I think home consoles at large are doomed to irrelevance in Japan regardless.  Honestly, I don't see Wii 2 really reversing that trend, regardless of how things play out.  Where Wii 2 would keep Nintendo going strong is the west, which is also where a "Zombie Wii 1" would be a clear losing strategy.

You're right in that my worst case scenario was only taking third parties into account. If Nintendo could provide enough momentum to Wii2 on its own, that could prevent the problems i outlined from coming to pass and give the system critical positive momentum right out of the gate, which would then make Nintendo's position all the stronger when it would come time to move on to the back-breaking PS4/X3 development if they had an 8th gen platform that they were already familiar with that still had some good years of life left in it and proved a lucrative market to work in. But all that hedges on the unpredictable (i.e. what will Nintendo's big hook be, and can they recreate an explosive phenomenon?)