Will Nintendo be first to market? I think they might be.
A few days ago their was a job posting from Microsoft to find staff to work on a future console. However I doubt they are only now beginning development as some sources are indicating. Fact is two years ago Microsoft was hiring staff for 343 to work on a next-generation Halo title. I fully believe Microsoft has been working on their next platform for quite some time and had it ready in case Kinect failed. If Kinect had failed I would have expected Microsoft's next console to be revealed at this E3. Now because Kinect did well I don't expect Microsoft to reveal their next console until E3 2012 or possibly even release and reveal in 2013.
Sony, Sony is the least likely to go first. Sony is only now turning a profit off of PS3 and sales of the hardware are improving. Move has failed to truly have Wii like success but its still marginally successful. Sony has a large software line up ready for 2011 and I have no doubt that they have software for 2012 lined up. I expect Sony to wait for Nintendo and or Microsoft to make their move first. However just like Microsoft I think Sony had a console near completion last year incase hardware sales dropped to far.
Nintendo, is most likely to launch first. I expect an unvieling at this years E3 whether it be a big unvieling like E3 2006 or a small one like E3 2005 I do not know. I expect the console to launch in 2012. Just look at the software currently in development. I was shocked when I read my issue of NP this month and saw that DS and 3DS both had more software coming then Wii. Wii is dying slowly, it is in much need of a replacement as DS is or was, despite strong hardware sales software is dropping fast. However Nintendo usually does not launch first, as Iwata said when Wii was announced Nintendo likes to hold its cards close to its chest. So this means Nintendo might sacrafice sales to wait it out for Sony or MS. Nintendo's hardware sales will be strong enough that they could ride this out for awhile until MS or Sony reveal new hardware. I'd say theirs a 70% chance the new system launches in 2012 a 25% chance it comes in 2013 and a 5% chance it waits till 2014, just to put things in perspective. Though I am rather confident Nintendo will shoot first.
As for specs. Some indicating BluRay, 3D etc...etc... No I don't think the next Nintendo console will use BluRay's, Nintendo has rarely ever used the same media as its competitors infact after SNES Nintendo has constantly used different formats then the competition. I don't expect that to change. Will the next Nintendo system feature glasses based 3D? Not likely their isn't a large enough market for that. Not to mention Nintendo just put alot of emphasis that glasses are a thing of the past I doubt they would follow the competition. However HD is a reality I expect the next Nintendo system to feature HD visuals, heck Miyamoto confirmed this years ago saying the next Nintendo system would be HD. Now how about graphical power, Nintendo has been pumping over 300-million dollars a year into R&D last I heard, compared to around 150-million during GameCube and into the beginning of Wii. I think this indicates that the next console could pack a pretty graphical punch. I bet it will be 2-3x the PS3 not the biggest increase like seen in past generations and I bet Nintendo will keep it almost gaming exclusive as they have done for Wii. I suspect the next console will launch at 279USD-350USD assuming the US currency remains stable till late 2012.
Thats my predictions for the day!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
