Really ? Here in germany Wii is still marketed heavily. From my experience it has about twice as many adds as PS3 or 360 and the Wii cms generally air during more popular shows.

I'm just focusing on this because I want to comment on this specifically...

If this was 2006 I would argue with you till I was blue in the face that nobody needed HD, and that the sales figures of both HD televisions and HD consoles would support this.

But it isn't 2006 anymore. HD takeup is increasing all the time, and will soon become universal (stores still sell one or two old CRT models here, but their floorspace is getting smaller all the time). Here in 2011, HD is an important factor that is becoming harder to disregard.

Yeah, this is another thing I don't understand; a lot of people claimed that the Wii would draw in customers that under other cirucumstances would not care about gaming, and to that much I agree. What I don't get is how they assume that these new "gamers" will then advance and "go deeper" (to quote the most hyped movie of last year...) and start playing more intricate games, buying loads of software and become essentially like the "hardcore" consumer. Why on earth would they do that? They never cared for such a hobby before, and there was a reason they didn't. They won't magically turn into a different consumer in droves and start playing RPG's, strategy games and other, deeper games all of the sudden. Their interest will remain superficial and half-hearted and they'll play Farmville, Angry Birds and other easygoing games on various platforms, these people can never be expected to invite a friend and play through Gear of War 2 in one sitting on their brand new 50" TV and surround sound system they bought to enjoy their games more. Most of them are even perfectly content with not playing games at all since its not a big part of their life at any rate.

Someone with a casual interest will, in the vast majority of cases, retain that interest level due to the nature of the subject at hand. People are naturally drawn to things they really like at once, without having to deploy clever tactics to "trick" them into trying it at all, one example would be my interest and passion for history, it was always there, since I could talk and inquire for myself. Its not like I started off easy with how my poop ended up smelling so bad one particular day and trying to analyse the most important events of the last two hours and then suddenly decided to jump on Ancient Egypt and the birth of China.

Here in Norway, there are over 30.000 people who train Tae-Kwon Do, how many of them are shooting for the black belt? Not a whole lot, in fact; most of them aren't interested in grading themselves at all, they're there for the social event, exercise and learning (somewhat) how to defend themselves. Then there's a solid core who started because they were genuinely intrigued by it and wants to see how good they can become and compete amongst themselves for getting better belts and in real bouts. This is just one example, there are countless others (people starting book clubs to "analyze" Twilight and drink wine won't be in a hurry to start on classic Hemmingway or Poe any time soon, for instance).

Casuals will remain casual, they are a fickle crowd who gets easily swayed one way or the other and you need to really work at it to keep them interested, lest they move on to other things. In these instances, marketing is all the more important, relying simply on viral marketing, especially for an aging product with no real news value, is plain silly. Customers like these will never be loyal and your product's percieved value will drop in time. This is part of what is happening to the Wii, one cannot blame software issues, especially since it has had no disadvantage like I showed on my list, in the past six months or so, its almost the other way around.

Metallicube: I ask again, why is the PS3 above the Wii? If it were simply software, things would be dead even or perhaps slightly in the Wii's favor. And since Nintendo's core titles both sell more and move more hardware (by your account, that is) the PS3 has had no advanatages through 2010 at all so the longterm momentum should be all but lost. No recent price cut, Slim version is getting old and no advantage in software. Mind you, the PS3 is down yoy as well but not anywhere near as much. If 3rd parties alone make and break a consoles sales, how could the Wii be the fastest selling console of all time at all? It never had good 3rd party support. Nintendo's own games did all the work? Fine, maybe they did, but that once again begets the question; why can't Mario Galaxy 2, Kirby, Donkey Kong, Wii Party and other games move any consoles? Games that sell several million are system sellers, don't even try to argue that if you want to imply that the likes of Red Dead Redemption is what kept the PS3 floating last year.

To everyone saying "Its only one bad week, hold off on the doom!" Well, its actually the fourth consecutive week of bad sales and the yoy drop is increasing for every one of those four weeks and there is nothing to point to a change any time soon so its hardly one bad week drawn into question. When the PS3 had significant drops (roughly half of those the Wii is seeing now, before the Slim launch) there were many threads discussing it's fate and imminent death despite it being the 3rd place console all along, yet I didn't see any of you emerge in those to stem the tide of doom prophets. To simply brush of the decline from incredible domination to placing below both competitors as insignificant is a really strange thing to do. When exactly will there be cause for worry? What if it dropped to sub 100k levels (this is a very real possibility within a reasonable time window), would you still maintain that its okay since the last place console has posted worse numbers at its worst? This is misplaced logic, or lack of logic at all and it leads me to believe that people are still blinded by the likes of Reggie and actually think that Nintendo are immune to industry woes and the need to conform to markets to make headway.

Do let us know when the drops are worrying.

PS: Don't call my rant "doom talk", there is currently no console that is doomed and the market leader can't be doomed at this point anyway. I'm simply curious as to why you won't see the possibility that this (low sales) could have a bad effect on Nintendo both in the present and in the future? Will 3rd parties be more inclined to aid them next generation when they let sales plummet and do nothing about it? Will investors be pleased that they have effectively dropped extremely in profits in just a year due to significantly lower sales and the fact that they are forced to lower their projections time and time again? I also find it funny that some would maintain that "The PS3 is still in more trouble than the Wii". Why? Its selling more without any good reason and is experiencing drops that are nowhere near as bad and has gone from being constantly third to approaching second and first in weekly numbers. The 360 is probably also in more trouble, despite being on top of the charts and moving software like hell. Here's a tip; don't let Malstrom do all your thinking and reasoing for you, it won't do you any good.

Agreed, I saw one in the UK about 10 minutes ago, and about 3 today!

1 Wii Party, 1 Goldeneye and 1 Just Dance 2 bundle

This weeks sales will be interesting!

1.) How should I know? I do not work at Sony or Nintendo, nor am I an analyst. All we have is speculation, and that is all our rambling will ever be. 

From MY perspective anyway, it is quite obvious why PS3 is about Wii; it is getting games while Wii is not. It is as simple as that. It is currently receiving the support of a dead console, thus is performs that way. Meanwhile the HD consoles are receiving the suppport of a thriving console, despite not necessarilly equating to that in overall sales. Wii may have the evergreens but it has virtually no significant titles released recently. The evergreens cannot carry a console alone forever. Wii is down farther YoY simply because it has further to go.

3rd parties alone do NOT make or break a console, particularly a Nintendo one. However, when Nintendo shifts focus to something like 3DS, then the lack of third party support suddenly becomes proplematic, because now you have essentially NO supply of new games to keep the console relevant. Once Nintendo goes back to releasing their own Wii games though (assuming they do), Wii sales will again pick up. Nintendo does not need 3rd parties necessarilly, but they do act as gap fillers, but now Nintendo has stopped making Wii games with no one to fill the gaps.

Wii sold record numbers because of the gaming phenomenons they've pumped out. Now, not only have they ceased creating the gaming phenomenons, but essentially stopped making Wii games altogether. The most relevant hardware mover since late 2009 was DKC, a solid and popular game, but nowhere near the selling power of NSMB. And I admit, I overestimated the game in this regard. The fact is, Wii had NO games near the power of Mario Kart, Wii Fit, NSMB, SSBB, or Wii Sports for all of 2010. This weakness hurt momentum. Remember, it's always GAMES first and foremost that move consoles. After all, that's why they exist isn't it?

2.) Here is when there is cause for worry; when a Wii's library gets replenished with solid games that appeal to a mass market, and STILL recieves these poor sales. In other words, when the quality of the library does not equate to the quality of sales. For the most part, the strength of Wii's releases has pretty much translated to equal sales, whether strong or weak.

If Wii STILL outsold PS3 despite PS3 currently getting 90% of the games, then it would be very worrysome for Sony. The current trends should not surprise you one bit if you open your eyes to what is happening in terms of its library.

3.) Of course there is the possibility of the momentum carrying in the future, but again, it is merely speculation. However, if you look at history, you see that every generation is a new start. Sony and Nintendo especially are aware of this. I find it funny that you mentioned third parties, because clearly it is a non issue to Nintendo. For one, third parties are going to do what they want no matter how successful Nintendo is. The Wii should be a lesson for that. Second, Nintendo has proven they do not need third parties, AS LONG AS they continue to release their own games (which now, they are not doing).

I'm still struggling to see your point in your "teh doomed!!!1" rant... Is it that Nintendo should get back to making games for Wii? IF so, I completely agree. But understand the reason they currently are not is because they are occupied with 3DS. Do you wish me to shrug my shoulder and say Nintendo is in the wrong and that they're in trouble?

Is your point that poor momentum will carry over to the next gen for Nintendo? Again, this is nothing but your own speculation, and I see little evidence of this coming to fruition as long as Nintendo continues to make games that appeal to the masses. And what about the invincible Sony's momentum? How do you think third parties will think about Sony going from a 150 million selling console to a 60-70 million console? Do you think third parties may see that as a red flag, especially with ever rising costs in hard economic times and Sony intent on going further into the red? Your speculation seems to have little evidence to support it, yet you keep going on about it, which tells me this is not neccessarilly what you THINK will happen to Nintendo, but what you WANT to happen. Do you really think Nintendo is going to rest on their laurels, either in this or the next gen?

Frankly, I'm a little insulted if you really think I can't think for myself. Maybe I like Malstrom's ideas because I truly believe they are the most accurate I've read? Perhaps you are allowing the industry jargon to influence YOUR opinion too much..

@mummelmann  ive never got that whole "casuals will upgrade to deeper gaming experiences crap". That was never going to happen

YES! Nintendo need to make games, they have to do SOMETHING to stop the sales from falling and that has been my point all along! They are resting on their laurels. Where did I leave the impression that I see Sony as invincible by the way? If anything, this generation has shown that they most certainly are not and it is clear to most everyone that they're the ones who fell the hardest on their ass by far, there simply is no denying that.

Again, you talk of the amazing games the PS3 (and 360) have been getting lately compared to the Wii, look at my list again and tell me where this huge advantage lies exactly, I sure can't see it. The 3DS launch is hardly an excuse for letting the Wii at the wolves and to forego development or delay the launch of titles and gear that could be very helpful in maintaining momentum is not very clever at this point. The fact that they have lowered their projections several times and by significant amounts shows that they were indeed resting on their laurels and were counting on the Wii to keep on sailing across the Blue Ocean without proper winds to aid it, in effect; they misread the market rather badly (you can argue that if you want and I cannot prove or disprove either way but it certainly seems so, why else would their initial projections miss their target so heavily?).

You also seem to assume that Nintendo will acheive the same thing next gen when you claim that my rant on momentum is merely speculation. Aren't your rants equal parts speculation then?

As far as third parties and Sony go, the Playstation brand has proven itself in the past as incredible at moving 3rd party software, something any Nintendo home console would be hard pressed to show. The low sales and crash at the beginning of the gen is all Sony's own fault, they were being morons to say the least and they paid for it. However, the PS3 has also turned out to be fairly adept at selling 3rd party software despite a fairly low installed base. Yes, developers are of course aware that the PS3 has sold a lot less than the PS2 but the fact still remains that the PS3/360/PC development model is a lot bigger and better suited for selling 3rd party software. Please, don't start with the whole "combining platforms against the Wii is cowardly/wrong/faulty" etc, the Wii is very different (by Nintendo's own choice) and this has turned out to be the achilles heel this generation. Having by far the biggest installed base and moving relatively small amounts of software (look at total software sold and total software revenue for all consoles) doesn't look any better than halving your installed base from last generation.

And what's this about Sony intent on going further into the red? They have gradually become more and more profitable and are now turning profits on every console sold along with Blu-ray and lots of software, this seems like a point you dug up from 2007 or something. As to what I THINK Nintendo will be doing, what I'm saying is what I'm thinking and its not based on ramblings from the industry or the gaming media. Anyone in here who knows me knows that I hold the gaming media in low regards and I read only tech previews and coverage from a sheer development angle with any interest and intent. Reviews, rants and propaganda are of no interest. I have always been a Nintendo fan, up until this generation where I honestly believe they took a turn for the worse (for my part) in wantinig to appeal to other customers. Which is fine, its a perfectly viable strategy and it worked in the beginning. However, I have also always maintained that the casual market is treacherous ground to walk upon and that this crowd will difficult to please in the long run (all such talk is of course brushed of as "the Wii is a fad!" drivel) since casual gaming is branching out and moving in different directions and is even finding new outlets (social media, phones etc).

Let's not discuss Malstrom, we'll never agree on that anwyay, I think he's the biggest ass on the web (I used to like what he wrote though, before his head grew ten sizes) and you practically build shrines to his honor. Regardless, I can assure you that my views are based on genuine concern, observation and a wish for the return of a Nintendo that cares about the customers again (me) and revives the passion they are known for having and not the misguided hate from gaming media and press. I'm not saying you can't think for yourself, I've actually always liked you as a user and have your posts and analysis earlier on to be both fair and insightful but you seem to have been slipping lately and I cannot fathom why. Don't take anything I say personally, it is certainly not meant that way.

Edit; how did Neos get away with his blatant trolling earlier in this thread?!

Yeah, that is also why the notion of "Wii buyers will upgrade to PS3 or 360" is so bogus. Same thing really.

I don't know what country you are from but I live in America and I still see commercials all the time. I really depends on what shows/network your watching. I have actually seen very little PS3 commercials compared to Wii and 360.

I mainly see Kinect commercials because no matter what show I or my family is wathcing Kinect is being shown LOL. Microsoft has done an amazing job with marketing Kinect. I don't see many PS3 ads...the last one I saw was LBP 2 about 2 weeks ago.

As I said it really depends on the show your watching...for example, my little brother puts on Spongebob or some other show mainly aimed at kids...everytime I see him have it on I see a Mario Sports Mix ad. Honestly, I think I have seen at least 2 Mario Sports Mix commercials everyday for the past 3 weeks LOL.

*Edit* LOL, you said the U.S.

Oh...Zelda Skyward Sword will push systems for sure. I just don't see why everyone on here is acting like its the main thing Nintendo can do to boost Wii sales. Zelda S.S will push the "Core" to consider a Wii again as its probably the most "Core" pushing franchise Nintendo has but its kind of like Microsoft's Halo. Yes, Halo Reach pushed systems and helped the 360 sell very well during that period along with the Slim but as you can see the Halo Reach effect didn't last more than about a month. Right now Kinect is seen as the "Fun new idea" especially in America and Zelda though it will push systems won't change that.