@rocketpig:

0,55 mln. in Japan.
10,5 mln. in USA.
5,15 mln. in Europe.

Maximum x360 sales by the end of Year.
So it is 16,2 mln.

Probably, in 2008 there will be around:
3 mln. in Europe + Japan.
5-6 mln. in USA.
SO it` around 24-25 mln. by the end of 2008. UNLESS x360 will get amazing BOOST in sales.

With 8,5 mln. by the end of this year, PS3 will have to sell atleast 15,5-16 mln. in 2008.
52 weeks in 2008.
Last 2 month - are most sales. So, for 45 weeks, PS3 will have to sell 5-6 mln. it`s 110-130k per week average WORLDWIDE.
To make such sales, every week ps3 must sell only:
30k - Japan.
50k - Europe.
50k - USA.
EASY to achieve.

And sell 10 mln. in last 8 weeks.
3,5 mln. for usa. 6 weeks with aorund 400k + 2 weeks with around 600k.
3,5 mln. for europe.
3 mln. for Japan.
Will be HARD to achieve.

BUT, all games listed above MUST come in 2008 and WORLDWIDE. =)

With
40-50k - Japan.
80k-100k - Europe.
80k-100k - USA.
250k in 45 weeks = 11 mln. (+5 mln. in last 8 weeks)

200k in 45 weeks = 9 mln. (+7 ml. in last 8 weeks)

7 mln. in last 8 weeks:
2,5-3 mln.(here 3mln. by PS2) USA, 2,5-3 mln. Europe, 1-2 mln.(125-250k) Japan.

No, and not even in 2009.

2010 maybe, but if MS has some nice cards up their sleeve, then maybe PS3 will never pass X360... but that's highly unlikely

Here - http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=DC&reg2=All&cons3=DC&reg3=All&start=36898&end=37255 is How PS2 made 15 mln. in 2001.
If you need, i can paste list of PS3 games, which will help PS3 in 2008.

Unbelievers will suffer greatly in 2008.

I believe that the ps3 will outsell the 360 in totall! sales.

360 Arcade will be $199.99 when GTA4 releases
360 Premium will be $299.99 when GTA4 releases
360 Elite will be $379.99 when GTA4 releases
PS3 will be at existing price when GTA4 releases

MGS4 will not bump PS3 sales (MGS4 has been the #1 hype machine since E32005 when PS3 was shown for first time. People wanting MGS4 already have PS3. Moreso than any other title MGS4 has already sold its consoles).

Killzone 2 will not sell PS3 consoles.

PS3 will stick close maybe even lead some weeks before GTA4 releases then 360 will restablish its lead. GT5 only title that may sell PS3's in 2008. MS surely will unveil Forza 3 with great hype to counter GT5.

Your numbers couldn't be more convoluted and confusing if you tried. Here, let me reiterate the only point that matters:

For the PS3 to pass the 360 in worldwide sales on January 1st, 2010, it must outsell the 360 by an average of 71,000 units per week, or over 50% more than it has sold on average thus far (132,000 per week).

Snowball+Chance<Hell

To reach your goal of "early 2009", it would have to outsell the 360 by roughly 110,000 consoles a week. That would put the PS3 somewhere in Wii territory.

Care to rethink your stance on this one? Or think about it at all? 

Answer these questions.

Will the PS3 sell more than 265K in January 2008 in NA?
Will the PS3 sell more than 268K in February 2008 in NA?
Will the PS3 sell more than 246K in March 2008 in NA?

Will the 360 sell more than 265K in January 2008 in NA?
Will the 360 sell more than 268K in February 2008 in NA?
Will the 360 sell more than 246K in March 2008 in NA?


Those are the numbers the 360 sold the first 3 months of 2007.

It'll happen in 2008 if the PS3 sells twice as much as it did in 2007, and the 360.... stops selling... at all.

Speculation is fun, but we don't even know the XBox 360 plan for next year yet. PS3 also has a lot we don't know...

What if they price drop $100 so that Arcade is $199...

What if they match AAA titles up 1 for 1 and neither get the advantage...

What if GTA IV episodic content is compelling...

What about inevitable delays of titles on the systems...

What about the Peter Jackson Halo project?

What if PS3 or 360 come out with some more big AAA surprises...

And most of all how will the Wii do?

There are too many unknowns... Everyone is playing poker. Sony has tipped some of their hand. 360 and Wii almost nothing...

If Microsoft stops selling the 360 altogether. Maybe.