I like your post. I'm gonna read it when I have time. (I skimmed over it)

Sony can't drop the price now (well, they can, but nobody expects them to), but they can cost reduce $100 faster than Nintendo can reduce $10 or Microsoft could reduce $30. I do agree losing exclusives is a potential threat to Sony, which is why I think they need to take them more seriously. So it took Nintendo 5 months to up production by 20%, yet during the next few months they will up production by 100% or more? Good to know. The only studios that need handouts are new studios. Sony's second parties can afford to create their own games. Insomniac and Factor 5 aren't exactly poor developers. What they can't afford to do is publish their games, or at least publish them as well as an established publisher. Sony's first party games are generally big sellers, but third party games can still breathe with them around, whereas with Nintendo platforms, people only buy them for Nintendo's games. Grammatical? Someone go ahead and get out the red pen and go all grammar nazi on me because if you find mistakes, I'd be impressed. Best case scenario is you'll find some runons.

Shane, where are you getting your numbers from? I can't figure out what you're responding to with your quips, and you seem to have a very twisted view of what the sales numbers really look like.

And I doubt highly you've checked out the following:

"Iwata Asks"
Sean Malstrom's articles at theWiikly.com
"Blue Ocean Strategy"

At least skim those... And then just sit back and watch. I'm through arguing with you, just because of the difficulty of figuring out what you're refering to half the time.

Shane said: Someone go ahead and get out the red pen and go all grammar nazi on me because if you find mistakes, I'd be impressed. Best case scenario is you'll find some runons.

 Run-ons.

 There, are you impressed?

Hahaha. It should say "PS3 domination starts 2 months from now." Because it seems it ALWAYS starts 2 months from now.

Erik Aston said: The problem is the only multiplatform games Nintendo is encouraging are again not big names. They're not going to steal a DMC or a GTA like Microsoft did. System power prohibits it. Nintendo planned for that. When they tried to compete for games like that with GC, they failed. Now they've decided to let the others duke it out for market share of power-hungry games that repeatedly hit the same audience, while they get the entirity of several other, untapped audiences. And its highly likely that a game like Cooking Mama for Wii will be far more profitable than a game like the PS3 version of DMC. They did get a big steal in Guitar Hero, which may sell better to Ninty's "casual audience." And they nailed the Sims exclusively. Check the top 3 Sims games on PS2, and you'll find they slightly outsold the DMC PS2 trilogy. And those were PC ports, not ground up console builds like the new game.

 First off. The Gamecube almost got ALL the major multiplatforms. The Wii is already falling behind PS3/360 starting June multiplatform. Only 1 version of sims got exclusivity, and it isnt really exclusive, as it is going PSP as well. (not DS)

Sims on the PS2 are NOT PC ports. You dont know what your talking about.

I hate sims, my wife loves it. I know all about it. 

DS domination is not entirely based on Nintendo's previous monopoly, but it is largely the result of it.

I give up on this part now, can you at least agree on that Barin Training and Nintendodogs is selling to a new market segment?

I'm not a big Gran Turismo fan. What I meant was that it's the biggest global property. It can move millions in all three territories. The only thing I'd put in the same category is Final Fantasy, which also happens to be a PS3 exclusive.

Well I can think of Wii Sport today on the consols, zelda seems to sell some units today also.

All publishers will release games for Wii whether it's first or third. That's not the issue. It's what kind of games they're releasing.

Yes most probarbly they will go for female titles, and some few will put up some decent fps/sand box/etc.

Gamecube had what was close to a record setting launch (if not for Xbox), even though it fell off a cliff immediately after the hype died.

Ehh GameCube had one good month in USA (japan and Eu was a joke), then it drop of to under 100k some month after. Wii has sold for 5 month straight. Sales of Wii and GameCube cant be compared.

DS is selling better than GBA ever did... in Japan. It's falling way short here. At 28 months, GBA was at 15.5 million units. DS is at 11.8 million.

But it is the best selling system now! The difference between USA and Japan is that gba has sold really well even after the launch of the DS.

I'm curious to see how the GTA sales go down. Seems to be people think it's a foregone conclusion it will sell better on 360, but the PS3 version doesn't have to compete with Halo.

Well I personally think that the GTA crowd haven't chosen plattform yet and will leave PS2 when GTA IV comes out, and they will chose the cheapest consol.

As far as Nintendo's failure, we go back to how they had no major third party support.

Wii needs more than just a bunch of exclusives put together in some guy's basement.

People are buying the more expensive machine, but we go again to how the PS3 won't be $600 forever.

First, Nintendo is getting more exclusivs from both Japanese and Western devloper just now the just have a lot of cheap ports but more is coming. Treasure Island, MySims (and no Kwaad MySims doesn't come to PSP, go to ign.com and make a search wont you?), Re:UC, Red Steel, SSX Blur and the list goes on. Not many of these will sell millions of consol. But MySims and Boogie can possible be that kind of games.

Nintendo's stated for years they aren't part of the tech race, that gameplay was the most important thing, and that they thought that the focus on graphics was problematic. This isn't new. I'm not gonna convince people who believe it is new otherwise, as apparently they have not been paying attention to Nintendo's repeated statements of this nature long before Wii was even a factor.

But today Nintendo is different from the competition, even if you will call the Wiimote a fad.

Sony can drop $100 at a pop. How many times can the others do that? Microsoft: once. Nintendo: zero. It's still not an attractive price until we see around $400, but they have a lot of room to move and several years to do it.

Excuse me isn't Nintendo and Microsoft doing a profit on their hardware now meanwhile Sony is taking a 100 USD+ loss per sold consol. Why would Sony win a price war?

The most sensible option at this time is to publish major games on both PS3 and 360. What third party killer apps (or even close to it) does Nintendo have? Even many Nintendo supporters don't expect them to get much.

For the moment, I would say that MySims and Boogie could be. That doesn't matter yet anyway because Wii Sport and Zelda will drive sales for at least another 6 months. (if Wii Sport get the same legs as Brain Training in Japan we could possible speak about 2 years)

Wii is a good platform to develop for. It's just not a good platform to spend a lot of time on. This is the prevailing wisdom among third parties. A few months won't change that. Another year if all things remain constant might.

Don't see how a top 10 of both systems proves your point. On the Wii side, we've got all 5 games Nintendo's released (including all of the top 4) alongside the third party games. On the PS3 side, it's primarily third party games, and the numbers aren't that different from the Wii numbers, despite half the userbase.

What I wanted to point out with that list was the following, PS3 and Wii 3rd party sales in one simple top ten list for USA.

1. Rayman Raving Rabbids: 375,250 (Wii)
2. Red Steel: 335,500 (Wii)
3. Madden NFL: 335,250 (PS3)
4. Madden NFL: 311,250 (Wii)
5. Super Monkey Ball: 267,250 (Wii)
6. Call of Duty 3: 251,250 (Wii)
7. Call of Duty 3: 212,000 (PS3)
8. Marvel Ultimate Alliance: 207,250 (Wii)
9. Need for Speed Carbon: 185,500 (PS3)
10. Trauma Center: Second Opinion: 172,000 (Wii)

Wii is selling more 3rd party games than PS3. So why shouldn't it be a good idea to make games for Wii. Even if Nintendo domination is a part of any Nintendo plattform, 3rd party stills have better sales than on PS3. So far the problem for PS3 that is doesn't have the userbase to substain a lot of 3rd party sales. If it isn't a good idea to spend much time on Wii why should it be a good idea to spend time on PS3?

I still don't see how Nintendo's tapped the casual crowd this early. This seems to be merely an assumption, though I'm really not sure what this is based on. Apparently the "surprising" success of the sequel to the system that sold 120 million units and not much more.

1+ million units a month does not allow them to both continue at the same pace and also have 9 million units available for the 4th quarter. People are just picking numbers to see who can win the contest to pick the most outrageous one. I'm waiting for the first estimate to use the word gazillion.

I don't see that it is an assumption that Nintendo is picking the casual crowd in Japan at least where Wii Sport is a non pack in game that is almost every week in top ten.

Gears of War isn't doing Microsoft any good? Huh?

It is, but their exist more than one gaiming crowd.

Sony didn't pay for Motorstorm and Resistance... they just paid to market them. Which is a page out of the handbook Nintendo used to have.

They paid for the game also.

Sony issued a sales goal? Sony ever issues sales goals?

Nintendo hasn't released games like Mario and SSB yet. If third parties can't even compete with Warioware, they're going to have some serious trouble when those games come around.

It's a sad, sad day when people start pimping Cooking Mama as a system seller.

Never said Cooking Mama was a system seller, I just stated that it was one more game to show off in one now genre. 3rd party can fight on Nintendo plattforms if they just doesn't do a quick port without any advertisment. 3rd party do not need to be the best on Nintendo plattforms they just need to make money.

What numbers? Read? A book? What is this 1942? All I have to do is pay attention to Nintendo's endless droning for the past few years. Anyone who has done so wouldn't be pretending like what they're saying is new because it isn't. This is no different than using a processor 2-3 times slower than the 2 year old Genesis. This is no different than using carts 18 months after the rest of the industry began running on CD's. Spin it how you wish, but this is the same old Nintendo. Nintendo wanted to save money. Period. Not necessarily a bad thing, but let's not pretend it's any more complicated than that. And yes, Iwata Asks is more of the same (and not particularly interesting to boot).

Yay. I win. People are saying this generation is in Nintendo's bag because they're fanboys. Not all of the Nintendo supporters are, but those who are predicting 80-800 million units and bankruptcy for Sony based on a couple months are. I do agree that Nintendo in the portable market in Japan is potentially appealing to new gamers. Just how big this market is, or whether it will impact the Wii any, is questionable. DS has been competing against a strong GBA, but GBA was competing with GBC at the height of the Pokemon craze. Sony won't win a price war, but they will be able to reduce prices enough so that they can bring the system price down relatively significantly. Granted, it's way too expensive to begin with. I'm not saying it's not a good idea to spend time on Wii. I'm saying it's not a good idea to spend much time. Sony provides Insomniac with production, marketing, PR, and distribution. If, for whatever reason, they are paying for development costs as well, they're taking a bigger piece of the pie on the other end.

Shane said: What numbers? Read? A book? What is this 1942? All I have to do is pay attention to Nintendo's endless droning for the past few years. Anyone who has done so wouldn't be pretending like what they're saying is new because it isn't. This is no different than using a processor 2-3 times slower than the 2 year old Genesis. This is no different than using carts 18 months after the rest of the industry began running on CD's. Spin it how you wish, but this is the same old Nintendo. Nintendo wanted to save money. Period. Not necessarily a bad thing, but let's not pretend it's any more complicated than that. And yes, Iwata Asks is more of the same (and not particularly interesting to boot).

I think you're the one who needs to read a book ... a book on processors ...

The Sega Genesis used the Motorola 68k which was a faster processor (in Hz) but because of how old and obsolete the architecture was the 68k was a much slower processor than the processor that was in the SNES.

At the same time Nintendo choose cartridges for the N64 to prevent the minute long loading times that came with most Playstation games; in fact many of the N64 games have aged well (as compared to similar games on the Playstation) because of the use of cartridges.

Spin it how you wish, but this is the same old Nintendo. Nintendo wanted to save money. Period. Not necessarily a bad thing, but let's not pretend it's any more complicated than that. And yes, Iwata Asks is more of the same (and not particularly interesting to boot).

I will continue to state that going with a slower processor and the wiimote was the best thing Nintendo could do. It might force devs not just to make a quick port in the long run. More it makes them different, difference might mean that gamers will go PSWii or Wii60.

People are saying this generation is in Nintendo's bag because they're fanboys. Not all of the Nintendo supporters are, but those who are predicting 80-800 million units and bankruptcy for Sony based on a couple months are.

No I am not saying that this generation is in Nintendos bag, and that Sony will go bankrupt. I am saying that Nintendo can reach 100 million, something you started with stating that they couldn't. If their is somebody who is a fanboy it is you that claim that only sony can succed with reaching PS1/2 levels of succes.

I do agree that Nintendo in the portable market in Japan is potentially appealing to new gamers. Just how big this market is, or whether it will impact the Wii any, is questionable.

Is it questionable that the changes that Nintendo made to the portable market haven't affected the sales of Wii when it is half to the LTD of GC and the best selling game is Wii Sport? Nintendo will most probarbly beable to beat the gameboy within 2-3 years with the DS. Nintendo has changed the market or the market has changed in Japan.

DS has been competing against a strong GBA, but GBA was competing with GBC at the height of the Pokemon craze.

Sony won't win a price war, but they will be able to reduce prices enough so that they can bring the system price down relatively significantly. Granted, it's way too expensive to begin with.

Yes and therefore Sony will be the only one to reach 100 millions and not Nintendo. I don't want to sound childish, but if Wii can continue to sell well this year 15-17 million shouldn't be impossible, that is almost the same as the LTD of the Cube. Nintendo needs two good years to get a userbase around 30 millions. I don't say that it will happen but after 30 millions they are really in the fight for 3rd party reasources.

I'm not saying it's not a good idea to spend time on Wii. I'm saying it's not a good idea to spend much time.

Why? So far it seems that those that build games exclusive for Wii is selling. That in combination with lower devlopment cost, could mean easy money. Once upon a time 3rd party titles like FF was on Nintendo hardware and they sold well.

Sony provides Insomniac with production, marketing, PR, and distribution. If, for whatever reason, they are paying for development costs as well, they're taking a bigger piece of the pie on the other end.

Don't know what you want to say here, but yes?

Now something you might note here is that I aren't against that PS3 sells, or that it could start selling. I just don't belive that in three years Wii will stop selling and no new games will arrive if the userbase is above 30 million (mayby 40). I am not either saying that the total game industry is equal to the consol sold last gen, I do belive that more than one consol can shift a healthy amount of units, just because thet the consols this time is different!