After reading some news about Pokemon and the 3DS..........I'm afriad there is no hope for the NGP to overthrow the 3DS now. It won't however stop it from selling in adequate terms.
jarrod said:
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I think EA / Activision won't go on port overload to begin with, there'll be a unique Call of Duty, Need for Speed, GTA etc and I guess the sales of those will dictate what sort of support they give from there on. I don't expect Japan to go 'wholesale' to the 3DS either given the PSP's success in the country but I'd look at that on a publisher by publisher basis.
The wildcard for Sony is whether they can get studios like Epic, iD, Valve etc behind the device. They typically shied away from handhelds as they're tech based companies, but the NGP looks like it plays well into their interests this time.
RolStoppable said:
Why did Squaresoft stop making games altogether for Nintendo platforms for about eight years? Nintendo's third party relationships were breaking left and right at that time, cartridges or not. Sony secured exclusivity for plenty of games during that era. Right from the get go, the PS1 had exclusive third party games like Ridge Racer and Tekken. Later on Tomb Raider and Resident Evil, both originally multiplatform titles. Knowing that it's hard to believe that the PS1 would have had a lineup like the Saturn. |
Tomb Raider and Resident Evil all launched on the Saturn...
Degausser said:
I think EA / Activision won't go on port overload to begin with, there'll be a unique Call of Duty, Need for Speed, GTA etc and I guess the sales of those will dictate what sort of support they give from there on. I don't expect Japan to go 'wholesale' to the 3DS either given the PSP's success in the country but I'd look at that on a publisher by publisher basis. The wildcard for Sony is whether they can get studios like Epic, iD, Valve etc behind the device. They typically shied away from handhelds as they're tech based companies, but the NGP looks like it plays well into their interests this time. |
They already have Epic, not sure about ID or Valve, but I'm sure ID will port ID tech 5 eventually.
RolStoppable said:
Squaresoft and Enix are not the same company. Nintendo was the problem, because they wanted to uphold their policy of third parties either making games exclusively for them or not at all. With such rules it's no wonder that third parties would jump ship at the first opportunity offered to them. Nintendo may have thrown that kind of dictatorship over board as time passed by, but at that point it was already too late. Sony bought third party exclusivity, that's the point. Tomb Raider 2 was only on the PS1 (ignoring the PC), Resident Evil 2 for the time it mattered as well. An N64 with CD-ROM wouldn't have prevented Sony from buying exclusivity. |
Nintendo's full exclusivity mandates went away around 1990. That's why you saw companies like Capcom, Konami, Taito and others start developing for other consoles, like Genesis and PC Engine. And like I already said, there were still other issues... a lot of Square's beef with Nintendo came from the preferential treatment shown to Enix in terms of mask-ROM allotments and scheduling. But the fact remains, the one big tipping point was N64 using carts... if not for that 3rd parties would've stayed on board.
Tomb Raider 2 actually had a Saturn version btw, but it was canned when Sega scuttled their Eclipse add-on (TR2 and VF3 were going to be launch titles for it). And as soon as there was another viable CD-ROM based console available (Dreamcast) Tomb Raider once again went multiplatform. Part of the reason Sony was able to so easily incentivize exclusivity though was that they were already market leader by the time deals started rolling in... and their leadership position based pretty much entirely on exclusive 3rd party content, most of which they wouldn't have gotten if they were going up against a CD-ROM based N64. I still think PlayStation would've gotten some games, and even some big ones (Metal Gear Solid for example), but it'd have lost the vast majority of it's defacto exclusives and companies like Square and Enix most likely would've remained N64 only.
It saddens me to see 3DS outselling NGP just becouse of khm another Super Mario oh yea and Ocarina of time remake and Kid icarus.People doesnt give a crap that NGP will have Resistance,Dark souls and tons of new IP's(ignore that i said resistance its the first thing that came to me).Im really sick of nintendo and for the past 2 years havent even looking news from nintendo at all.IMO nintendo is what is choking brilliant develevopers who are putting monstrous effots in games.Ye i know all of you will disagree with me telling that nintendo has brilliant programers and all im not denying that.But i just believe that its time to shut down the golden chicken.After 25 years...Im really sick of nintendo.And this 3DS?I dont see nothing so EXTRAORDINARY in it.Sry for making such huge reply and expressing myself and mentioning something that hasnt anything to do with your post
Degausser said:
I think EA / Activision won't go on port overload to begin with, there'll be a unique Call of Duty, Need for Speed, GTA etc and I guess the sales of those will dictate what sort of support they give from there on. I don't expect Japan to go 'wholesale' to the 3DS either given the PSP's success in the country but I'd look at that on a publisher by publisher basis. The wildcard for Sony is whether they can get studios like Epic, iD, Valve etc behind the device. They typically shied away from handhelds as they're tech based companies, but the NGP looks like it plays well into their interests this time. |
There's never going to be an exclusive COD, NFS, etc, on NGP. From what developers are telling us, Sony's even selling the system to them as a handheld that can run their PS3 engines... the only way it's going to get any exclusives, rather than ports, of the big western IPs is if Sony bankrolls them directly. It just doesn't make financial sense for western 3rd parties otherwise, when they're looking at a more limited market than 360/PS3 for the same level of cost. For COD I could maybe see something like a "Modern Warfare Collection" for launch, essentially an "exclusive" repackaging (that could even be farmed out), but it's not going to get something like an AAA exclusive COD effort.
As far as Japan, PSP's riding on a high right now, but the platform's dead elsewhere. Games like MGS or KH, games that should easily clear 3-4m worldwide are looking at sales likely half to a third of that... when you combine PSP's western failure with NGP's explosive budget increase, you're looking at a relatively risky platform. From a Japanese perspective, it's also a platform that more or less hinges entirely on what Capcom decides to do with Monster Hunter, which has to be a bit of a worrying position for any 3rd party deciding now where to invest development for the next few years. 3DS by comparison is a more lateral shift in terms of resources (companies can just bring their PS2/PSP engines over directly, and expect similar budgets going forward), plus Nintendo's now taking a more active role in courting 3rd party content early on... I mean we're already seeing developers and publishers that previously looked to be favoring PSP (SE Osaka, KojiPro, NIS, imageepoch, Namco, Capcom, etc) moving pretty strongly into 3DS. Honestly, I expect 3DS to get even better Japanese support than DS did, and at a much quicker pace. It already has really, there's not going to be all that much space left for NGP, and even in Japan I think you'll see a lot of developers simply porting 360/PS3 stuff.
As far as the others you mentioned, Epic's already on board in a big way (UE3 seems pretty central to Sony's NGP strategy) and I could easily see Valve or id join in too. Epic and id have been big iOS evangelists though, I don't really see NGP support as too big a shift for either since they've been getting into handsets for awhile, it's more a natural inclusion for their multiplatform support. Valve could be big though, but Valve tends to be a more cautious developer (look how long it took them to start really investing in PS3).
| dunuck said:
See what I'm getting at? while i agree 100% Media choice, more precisely CD was a big factor, but there were a number of other factors that ultimately lead to PS1 success |
I'm not saying there weren't other factors at play. I'm saying those factors weren't significant enough that had Nintendo gone with a competitive media format, developers would've still jumped ship. And without developers already jumping ship and being open to shifting over, PlayStation would've never taken off.
Also, you're partly mistaken. Sony was trailing Saturn in Japan initially (Virtua Fighter being a bit of a killer app), and then just keeping pace for most of 1995. Things didn't change until the FFVIIannouncement at the start of 96, at which point PS1 took off and never looked back in Japan. The rise of the platform can be linked almost directly to FFVII's announcement, it was a real watershed, both for consumers and developers who basically decided it was the real successor to the SFC at that point. Without FFVII, PlayStation would've ended up more like PC Engine did.
Sony did a little better than Sega upfront in America and Europe for sure (largely due to Sega's own huge mistakes, which you detailed earlier), but they really weren't in a position of dominance until 97/98, when it became clear that they were going to have the most games and at a cheaper price than N64 stuff. In both cases, I think a CD-ROM based N64 would've led to far less inherent upfront support of PS1 (especially from Japan, which at that point was easily where the most significant 3rd party games came from), and it likely would've had a closer run with Saturn in those early days.
jarrod said:
There's never going to be an exclusive COD, NFS, etc, on NGP. From what developers are telling us, Sony's even selling the system to them as a handheld that can run their PS3 engines... the only way it's going to get any exclusives, rather than ports, of the big western IPs is if Sony bankrolls them directly. It just doesn't make financial sense for western 3rd parties otherwise, when they're looking at a more limited market than 360/PS3 for the same level of cost. For COD I could maybe see something like a "Modern Warfare Collection" for launch, essentially an "exclusive" repackaging (that could even be farmed out), but it's not going to get something like an AAA exclusive COD effort. As far as Japan, PSP's riding on a high right now, but the platform's dead elsewhere. Games like MGS or KH, games that should easily clear 3-4m worldwide are looking at sales likely half to a third of that... when you combine PSP's western failure with NGP's explosive budget increase, you're looking at a relatively risky platform. From a Japanese perspective, it's also a platform that more or less hinges entirely on what Capcom decides to do with Monster Hunter, which has to be a bit of a worrying position for any 3rd party deciding now where to invest development for the next few years. 3DS by comparison is a more lateral shift in terms of resources (companies can just bring their PS2/PSP engines over directly, and expect similar budgets going forward), plus Nintendo's now taking a more active role in courting 3rd party content early on... I mean we're already seeing developers and publishers that previously looked to be favoring PSP (SE Osaka, KojiPro, NIS, imageepoch, Namco, Capcom, etc) moving pretty strongly into 3DS. Honestly, I expect 3DS to get even better Japanese support than DS did, and at a much quicker pace. It already has really, there's not going to be all that much space left for NGP, and even in Japan I think you'll see a lot of developers simply porting 360/PS3 stuff. As far as the others you mentioned, Epic's already on board in a big way (UE3 seems pretty central to Sony's NGP strategy) and I could easily see Valve or id join in too. Epic and id have been big iOS evangelists though, I don't really see NGP support as too big a shift for either since they've been getting into handsets for awhile, it's more a natural inclusion for their multiplatform support. Valve could be big though, but Valve tends to be a more cautious developer (look how long it took them to start really investing in PS3). |
We'll see. I fully expect to see some sort of exclusive COD (Why else would Sony have lead their NGP software announcement with it?), simply cause Activision are furthering that brand everywhere possible, and they'll make more money off a unique NGP game then just trying to sell more copies of the game already on PS3 / 360.
Sony have absolutely not sold the system as something they want just ports for, and if you've bothered to read any of the developer commentry on the device it's been the complete opposite message. Sony want unique content and that's what they're pushing for (Check the thread from here a few weeks ago... was on the Sony forum though I think).
And again we've someone who is inflating the NGP's developement cost with no possible source and no possible idea what the thing will cost (Find me a link to say the NGP dev costs the same as a HD console, or as an analogy, that the PSP costs anywhere near the PS2 lol). Sure it'll probably be more then the 3DS's, but the games will probably cost more too, and it'll have a bigger share of games sold via digital distribution, so hell it could end up more profitable for publishers. We can both speculate either way, but truth is, we don't know yet. The one thing we do know, is that every developer who's commented on the device has been positive and that the NGP is extremely accessible for developement and positioned great for anyone who've worked on the PS3 or 360, whether that be ports or just resuing engines / middleware / assets to make new games for less.
Until E3 we're just speculating on what the NGP will have anyway. Sony's list thing from January had pretty much every publisher on it though, so everyones working on something for the thing. I don't view the NGP having any software trouble near launch, it's whether the thing can sell that software that'll decide if it sustains alot of support.
Degausser said:
We'll see. I fully expect to see some sort of exclusive COD (Why else would Sony have lead their NGP software announcement with it?), simply cause Activision are furthering that brand everywhere possible, and they'll make more money off a unique NGP game then just trying to sell more copies of the game already on PS3 / 360. Sony have absolutely not sold the system as something they want just ports for, and if you've bothered to read any of the developer commentry on the device it's been the complete opposite message. Sony want unique content and that's what they're pushing for (Check the thread from here a few weeks ago... was on the Sony forum though I think). And again we've someone who is inflating the NGP's developement cost with no possible source and no possible idea what the thing will cost (Find me a link to say the NGP dev costs the same as a HD console, or as an analogy, that the PSP costs anywhere near the PS2 lol). Sure it'll probably be more then the 3DS's, but the games will probably cost more too, and it'll have a bigger share of games sold via digital distribution, so hell it could end up more profitable for publishers. We can both speculate either way, but truth is, we don't know yet. The one thing we do know, is that every developer who's commented on the device has been positive and that the NGP is extremely accessible for developement and positioned great for anyone who've worked on the PS3 or 360, whether that be ports or just resuing engines / middleware / assets to make new games for less. Until E3 we're just speculating on what the NGP will have anyway. Sony's list thing from January had pretty much every publisher on it though, so everyones working on something for the thing. I don't view the NGP having any software trouble near launch, it's whether the thing can sell that software that'll decide if it sustains alot of support. |
Sony led with COD because it's the biggest non-Nintendo franchise in gaming at the moment. That doesn't mean they have an exclusive lined up, it just means there's getting a game (probably Sledgehammer/Infinity Ward's game for this year). Financially, unless Sony's paying for it, it just doesn't make sense for Activision to develop a NGP exclusive... they might sell more, but they'd also spend dramatically more. Why give an exclusive to NGP when it would sell orders of magnitude more on 360/PS3?
And yes, Sony has positioned the system as a handheld that can essentially run PS3 engines. That's why they showed games like LBP, Killzone and Uncharted, why they made such a big deal out of UE3, why Kojima's talking about his PS3/PSP interoperability "dream game"... it's being sold as a PS3 in your hands (much like PSP was sold as a PS2 in your hands). I'm also at a bit of a loss as to how you can say I'm "inflating" costs by comparing to HD consoles, when you then go on and essentially say the same thing later on in the same paragraph?
You're right though, we'll have to wait for E3 probably to get any more real insight into software support. Sony's list of developers was impressive, but there's no guarantee they're all going to end up making games for it. Back in 1995, Nintendo released a list of over 40 developers who'd singed on as Virtual Boy licensees (including big names like Capcom, Square, Enix, Taito, Konami, Namco, Tecmo, Koei, Bandai and others), and that never exactly amounted to much.
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