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Linkzmax on 28 February 2011
Wonktonodi said:
Linkzmax said:
Wonktonodi said:

Also I now have no problems discussing anything I said I didn't want to talk about till after the game. Be that about my thoughts on first day lyches. Lynching the "worste player" or anything else.

That reminds me. Day one lynching odds were 3/11=27.27% or if you only consider lynching others it's an even 30%. Worst case scenario(all mislynches) after a mislynch was only 22.81% for a doc save, but when you also consider odds for cases in which one or two mafia get lynched, then they improve to an overall 27.43%. Additionally all cases in which at least one mafia gets lynched gives doc-save odds of 31.15% or better.


I get the first sentence.

The rest isn't quite clear to me. 

Actually I did the odds assuming you wouldn't be able to save yourself. I'll run them again later without that assumption. Anyway here's the worst case scenario math:

22.81==7/8(odds doctor isn't killed night one)*1/10(odds doc picks the right target) 7/8(doc lives)*6/7(doc isn't lynched day two)*5/6(doc lives to day three)*1/8(odds doc picks the right target) 7/8*6/7*5/6*4/5*3/4*1/6(I think you get the picture?)



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noname2200 on 28 February 2011
Linkzmax said:

Is GOW still around/are we still punishing him?(Or any others that got modkilled last time?) Don't think he should mod without playing through a round again first, but he could be second in line.

I've always been cool with the other modkillees, but GoW's reasons were so egregious that I don't mind stretching it for one more game.



Wonktonodi on 28 February 2011
Linkzmax said:
Wonktonodi said:
Linkzmax said:
Wonktonodi said:

Also I now have no problems discussing anything I said I didn't want to talk about till after the game. Be that about my thoughts on first day lyches. Lynching the "worste player" or anything else.

That reminds me. Day one lynching odds were 3/11=27.27% or if you only consider lynching others it's an even 30%. Worst case scenario(all mislynches) after a mislynch was only 22.81% for a doc save, but when you also consider odds for cases in which one or two mafia get lynched, then they improve to an overall 27.43%. Additionally all cases in which at least one mafia gets lynched gives doc-save odds of 31.15% or better.


I get the first sentence.

The rest isn't quite clear to me. 

Actually I did the odds assuming you wouldn't be able to save yourself. I'll run them again later without that assumption. Anyway here's the worst case scenario math:

22.81==7/8(odds doctor isn't killed night one)*1/10(odds doc picks the right target) 7/8(doc lives)*6/7(doc isn't lynched day two)*5/6(doc lives to day three)*1/8(odds doc picks the right target) 7/8*6/7*5/6*4/5*3/4*1/6(I think you get the picture?)

I get the picture or could run odds as well. However I would have been able to eliminate some people who I wouldn't bother protecting either thinking they are scum or not likely to be nightkilled. So I would have had better odds.  That is untill you nightkill me or thats how I thought. It never occured to me that I'd get lynched day one.



Hephaestos on 28 February 2011
theprof00 said:

also, heph, that comment about different timezones?

That was like the scummiest thing I'd ever read, especially since you and trash were both same timezone.

I was trying to find angles... since all we had was gambit and modkill.

Then I realized it pointed only at me and trash... who was pretty much townie from the harsh unbuddying she did to me day one (over acted way too much on that... it'd be badly played for a mafia and innocent mistake for a townie).... so yeah I tried to save the theory with stefl being EU too :p



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

Hephaestos on 28 February 2011
A Bad Clown said:
noname2200 said:
A Bad Clown said:

So, now what? Do we vote for the next theme?

In a short bit, someone will start the next sign-up thread, mod TBD (who's on the list again?  theRepublic and Linkz expressed interest, and I believe at least one other has too).

Lucky me for being in the game with people that won't day one lynch me for being me, I'll try next round but don't expect me to make it past day one.


well to be honnest, you made many mistakes day one... and I kind of forgot about them. I didn't want to lynch you cause you were new... if you make mistakes next game, you won't be new (but it won't be for being yourself ^^).



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theprof00 on 28 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
theprof00 said:

also, heph, that comment about different timezones?

That was like the scummiest thing I'd ever read, especially since you and trash were both same timezone.

I was trying to find angles... since all we had was gambit and modkill.

Then I realized it pointed only at me and trash... who was pretty much townie from the harsh unbuddying she did to me day one (over acted way too much on that... it'd be badly played for a mafia and innocent mistake for a townie).... so yeah I tried to save the theory with stefl being EU too :p

There wasn't much to go on in the game, I blame myself also, for reading too much into what people are saying. These slips that used to give me so much to go on are starting to sour. Everyone is making slips now, or I've lowered the bar on what a slip is.

I'm probably going to be scaling back my interrogations based on that.  



A Bad Clown on 28 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
A Bad Clown said:
noname2200 said:
A Bad Clown said:

So, now what? Do we vote for the next theme?

In a short bit, someone will start the next sign-up thread, mod TBD (who's on the list again?  theRepublic and Linkz expressed interest, and I believe at least one other has too).

Lucky me for being in the game with people that won't day one lynch me for being me, I'll try next round but don't expect me to make it past day one.


well to be honnest, you made many mistakes day one... and I kind of forgot about them. I didn't want to lynch you cause you were new... if you make mistakes next game, you won't be new (but it won't be for being yourself ^^).

As in now have have two more people willing for a day one lynch to add to the list of people who will pile me day one.



19:44:34 Skeezer METAL GEAR ONLINE
19:44:36 Skeezer FAILURE
19:44:51 ABadClown You're right!
19:44:55 ABadClown Hur hur hur
19:45:01 Skeezer i meant
19:45:04 Skeezer YOU ARE A FAILKURE
19:45:08 Skeezer FAILURE*
Hephaestos on 28 February 2011
A Bad Clown said:
Hephaestos said:
A Bad Clown said:
noname2200 said:
A Bad Clown said:

So, now what? Do we vote for the next theme?

In a short bit, someone will start the next sign-up thread, mod TBD (who's on the list again?  theRepublic and Linkz expressed interest, and I believe at least one other has too).

Lucky me for being in the game with people that won't day one lynch me for being me, I'll try next round but don't expect me to make it past day one.


well to be honnest, you made many mistakes day one... and I kind of forgot about them. I didn't want to lynch you cause you were new... if you make mistakes next game, you won't be new (but it won't be for being yourself ^^).

As in now have have two more people willing for a day one lynch to add to the list of people who will pile me day one.

i'll only lynch you if you deserve it. I'm more of a pacifist :p



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

A Bad Clown on 28 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
A Bad Clown said:
Hephaestos said:
A Bad Clown said:
noname2200 said:
A Bad Clown said:

So, now what? Do we vote for the next theme?

In a short bit, someone will start the next sign-up thread, mod TBD (who's on the list again?  theRepublic and Linkz expressed interest, and I believe at least one other has too).

Lucky me for being in the game with people that won't day one lynch me for being me, I'll try next round but don't expect me to make it past day one.


well to be honnest, you made many mistakes day one... and I kind of forgot about them. I didn't want to lynch you cause you were new... if you make mistakes next game, you won't be new (but it won't be for being yourself ^^).

As in now have have two more people willing for a day one lynch to add to the list of people who will pile me day one.

i'll only lynch you if you deserve it. I'm more of a pacifist :p


Trust me, if what I think happens next round you'll find out real quick why I'm worried.



19:44:34 Skeezer METAL GEAR ONLINE
19:44:36 Skeezer FAILURE
19:44:51 ABadClown You're right!
19:44:55 ABadClown Hur hur hur
19:45:01 Skeezer i meant
19:45:04 Skeezer YOU ARE A FAILKURE
19:45:08 Skeezer FAILURE*
Wonktonodi on 28 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
A Bad Clown said:
Hephaestos said:
A Bad Clown said:
noname2200 said:
A Bad Clown said:

So, now what? Do we vote for the next theme?

In a short bit, someone will start the next sign-up thread, mod TBD (who's on the list again?  theRepublic and Linkz expressed interest, and I believe at least one other has too).

Lucky me for being in the game with people that won't day one lynch me for being me, I'll try next round but don't expect me to make it past day one.


well to be honnest, you made many mistakes day one... and I kind of forgot about them. I didn't want to lynch you cause you were new... if you make mistakes next game, you won't be new (but it won't be for being yourself ^^).

As in now have have two more people willing for a day one lynch to add to the list of people who will pile me day one.

i'll only lynch you if you deserve it. I'm more of a pacifist :p

don't you mean doc hater? :P