Understatement of the month so far. It'll be lucky to reach 200k.

I won't accept it selling less than Blue Dragon till I see it happen. It just can't sell less than BLue Dragon.

I'll stick around 'till then. The Japanese used game market will cut its legs by the knee.

But it has online so I'm hoping that won't happen.

Yup.

So are you saying userbase and platform don't matter at all?  White Knight Chronicles sold a little over 200k first week.  Would it have sold the same if it had launched on the 360 with a ~200k install base?  Does that only work for new IP RPGs or all games? 

Not new IPs, but both Graces and Vesperia sold a lot more on PS3 than Wii/360.  Are you saying not a single one of those people would have bought games like Blue Dragon if it had been on PS3 as well?  Maybe it is mostly Tales fans buying multiple copies, it'll be interesting to see how Xilia does.

It is not a big problem how well this game sell. Of course if it does well that's better but this game obviously wasn't developped for commercial purposes but for strategic ones. In other words why do you think Nintendo invests in games like Xenoblade this one and probably Pandora's Tower? Because they think JRPGs are going to sell very well on the Wii? Of course not. They invest in this kind of games to help their consoles in the long term to have at least a decent amount of JRPGs fans and hopefully to create licences that progressively will become popular for this kind of gamers. The sales of this game probably won't have any consequences to this strategy that Nintendo has to continue at all costs to have more "hardcore" gamers buying their systems in order to in the long term improve significantly their third party support. 

No, I stated it just doesn't mean sales will always increase. Userbase can make overall game sales increase, but when it comes to individual games there are more factors than just that.

And again, JRPGs are more of a niche genre than many think it is. On all three of the home consoles, the big names are about the only huge sellers, while the niche games have niche sales.

But I still say bring this to the West.

I'm not saying going from 11 to 20 million would do anything for the last story.  But considering Blue Dragon sold more LTD than the 360 had sold before its release, I think it is safe to say the limited userbase held back first week sales.  Plus it still outsold established IPs like Tales and Star Ocean on 360.  So that takes at least the platform out of the equation.

Also that is true of just about every genre.  The big names sell, and most other games fly under the radar.  I suppose the main difference is the console JRPG names have been dominating for two decades.

Also, the increased hardware sales for the 360 shows that some were willing to buy the system for that game, while those that wanted this game likely already had a Wii.

Now if this turns into a series, very well could pick up stronger sales in the sequels.