The good news is Nintendo realizes their mistake in 2010, now hopefully they will make sure 2011 has some killer apps
Iwata has been saying that since 2009 after the terrible drought through that year and the terrible 2008 holiday lineup. And guess what? Sales have been going down since. It's out of their control. Wii will not go up again in sales.
No, its not out of their control, its completely withn their control, they just haven't done it, we saw with NSMB, that they can still hit record sales with the right software, they just didn't follow it up with anything afterwards, they didn't keep the NSMB momentum going with other software, Other M and Galaxy and Skyward are jokes, those types of games aren't going to move systems, two of them already flopped, they need to maintain momentum from their big titles, and they haven't done that these past few years, which is why we've seen sales slowly sink.
It's out of their control. Mainly because there is competition. And also, if they want to garner so much attention towards the 3DS it's safe to assume Wii will lose a big part of the spotlight it still had. Kinect and now the 3DS and the NGP are going to undoubtedly take away attention from the Wii. This years line up is way worse than last year, so it seems that Nintendo didn't learn a thing from their mistakes.
In fact I think that Nintendo will solely focus on the Wii with big titles on the Holiday season from now on. Just take a look at sales from this year vs. sales from last year. Wii is already in a big decline and there's absolutely nothing coming up in the first half of the year for the West, save for Mario Sports Mix which isn't even that big and will not make an impact in HW. There's no 3rd party SW nor 1 st party SW. Zelda: SS is a Q4 title at the earliest and then the schedule is empty.
Are you sure they learnt from their mistakes? Market has already shifted and is losing interet in the console, that's out of their control and there's no reversing that.
You are neglecting a lot of data.
The Wii sold 4 million console in December, and was up year over year from March to around June in the US (I think it went down in July). The system managed to sell ~2.5 million in Decembner despite competition from Kinect. And on Kinect, notice how software is doing terrible for the system and is not increasing 360 sales.
When there is no good software, the Wii does bad. When there is good software, the Wii does good. You should be able to put 2 and 2 together to see that compeling software is the key, meaning, yes, Nintendo has control over the situation.
I'm not neglecting any data, you are. Look at the situation of the Wii worldwide, the system just lost its steam last year, I don't know how you can deny that. Plus Nintendo had already said that lack of compelling software is what caused the slowing sales from 2008 to 2009, and guess what? They are saying the same now for 2010 over 2009. I bet they'll say the same next year when 2011 does worse than 2010. You notice the trend, it's out of their control. When they use the same excuse for 2 consecutive years you know there's something wrong.
The claim that Nintendo has no control over Wii sales is incorrect and here is why.
Before I begin, remember that, if your claim that "Nintendo has no control over Wii sales." is true, that Nintendo's actions would not have an effect on Wii sales (in other words, Wii sales should always be constant or going down). If Nintendo did X and sales went up, the claim would be false. Again, the Wii sales at the end of 09 and the begging of 2010 were excluded from your last post. The Wii was sold out in the early months of the year. What does this tell us? That Nintendo was able to raise Wii sales. If they were able to raise Wii sales, does this mean that it would be out of their control? No, of course not.This is why I say you are neglecting data. The data clearly shows that when Nintendo releases software, sales go up.
But you made the point that they said the same thing for 09 and 08. If we assume that games take 2 years to make, then a game that came out in Oct of 2010 would have entered production in Oct 2008. If it was out in, say, Nov of 2010, it entered production in 2008. The Wii really didn't slump until Febuary or March of 2009. Any software that started production to increase Wii software sales would have entered production in around March of 2009, and that is the earliest. This is why we got games like Galaxy 2 and Other M. Both of these games entered production in 2008 (Reggie said at E3 that they had Mario and Metroid games coming) when Wii sales were very strong. This explains why they were made in times when software sales were slow (and they didn't help).
You may ask about New Super Mario Brother Wii. We can conlude that either this title was in production in late 2007/early 2008 as Nintendo was following what they did with the DS, or the game took a year to make which is plausable given that the game would be quifcker to make and used the DS game's engine. Wii Fit Plus probably exist for the same reason. Now, Nintendo could still not have a lot of software or 2011. It's possible. But seeing as they have made strides in 2009 and the fact they are delaying Skyward Swords by alot, we can say both that it is in their control and they plan to fix it.
And ignoring the massive decline in sales for the Wii compared to the growth of the other 2 consoles is mind boggling. How do you expect people to take seriously what you say when you are ignoring that the sales lost from the Wii went to its competitors? I think it's more of a shift in interest or saturation rather than lack of software. Last year Nintendo released a lot more SW than in 2009 and quite a few big games, yet sales kept on going down for it and up for the HD consoles. Kinect had an impact on the Wii, so did PSMove but to a much lower extent. 3DS will destroy Wii's momentum.
The analysis is incorrect. Intrest are not shifting. Sales for both systems, even now, are a result of lowering price and releasing of new models. Software has not shown to boost sales and neither Kinect nor Move moved systems.
This claim, that rising sales for the other two systems sales cause Wii sales to go down. This means theri sales would be correlated, but past data shows this has never been the case. The PS3 sales went up in 2007, but the Wii was never effected. The 360 climbed when it got a price cut, but Wii sales were uneffected. Also, when Wii sales went down in 2009, 360 and PS3 didn't magically go up. Market share was effected, but Market Share is a precent of a total. If Nintendo sold less, then their precent would go down and Mirosoft's and Sony's total would go up accordingly. The recent sales trends have been because of their own price cuts, not do to buyers moving to other systems.
Also, what is your backing for the claim that Wii is saturated. Is it independent of the other information you mentioned?