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Forums - Sales - PS3 and Wii battle for Japan 2011 edition

 

PS3 and Wii battle for Japan 2011 edition

Wii will outsell PS3 by big margin 98 10.35%
 
Wii will slightly outsell PS3 99 10.45%
 
PS3 and Wii will be statistically tied 44 4.65%
 
PS3 will slightly outsell Wii 292 30.83%
 
PS3 will outsell PS3 by big margin 341 36.01%
 
who cares ? 70 7.39%
 
Total:944
Raze said:

Depends if Zelda comes out this year as planned.

I don't think it's an if anymore, it's a when.

Can they do it before FF13-2 is out, and reap the most sales? If not, I don't think they can pull it off.

As others have said, the key game is DQX, and maybe TLS for Q1. If they come out/do well, then they'll win



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Ail said:

PS3 should win handily.

Seeing the current Wii sales in Japan I woudn't be surprised to see several weeks this year where Wii dips bellow 10k there...

I'd agree with you here. 

However, as we ALL know, the holiday boost for Wii is amazing, so if it can stay in touch with the PS3 (which it should) it could win. Coupled with Vitality sensor, big game releases and a price cut, and I think Wii could be on top!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

are michael jackson and epic mickey coming out for the PS3?



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

I don't get why people belive Vitality sensor will be huge thing ? If it were so amazing why was Nintendo dead quiet about it on last E3 ?

And hell can you even guys think about a single game that could be made for it that would be fun to play ? Wii, Wii fit, Move, kinect all have fairly obvious usage and show instantly what kinds of games could be developed for it but what can be made for vitality sensor ?

It seems like everyone is just saying it will be huge bacause Nintendo is making it. Guess what Wii music was Nintendo game too.

I belive they burried this project deep below ground and will try to pretend it never existed.

 

They have two big things for this year that can boost sales - Zelda and DQX (if it releases in 2011 which would be against square policy of spacing major titles and they already have XIII-2 for consoles and Type-o for portables)



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TheSource said:

With the new Final Fantasy coming for the holidays for PS3 in Japan you'll probably see Nintendo try to counter with something substantial as we saw in 2009. Ideally, that game would be Dragon Quest X but I don't think Square-Enix will do that, although it would be an enormous quarter for them domestically if they could pull it off somehow. It'd be amusing if it was NSMB Wii 2 against the second real FF for PS3.

Supposedly Wii still has Inazuma Eleven, Zelda, Dragon Quest X, a Hal-Kirby game, Rhythm Heaven, Pikmin 3, Earth Seeker in addition to the games mentioned above. If DQX isn't 2011 then you have to figure Rhythm Heaven / Zelda are the holiday games with the rest as filler. Last Story in Jan / Earth Seeker for April / Inazuma Eleven for Golden Week / Kirby for Obon with various other small games or a price cut as filler. I really wouldn't rule out a big core sequel though - NSMB Wii / DKC Returns 2 - popping up out of nowhere to fill in a slow period. A new Mario Party or Wii Party or Wii Relax could do well.

Actually, the Michael Jackson game from Ubisoft is supposedly coming to Japan - that could be a good filler game. With the success of Epic Mickey, Disney might be pushing for the next Kingdom Hearts console game to be on Wii as well. Epic Mickey is going to do 2-3m at least on Wii - thats enough to justify it I think.

As PSP / DS collapse from PSP2 / 3DS I think a fair amount of PSP / 3DS could be ported to Wii as well, and there is the possibility of PSP2 and PS3 giving each other ports too. All in all, I figure Wii and PS3 will both be right around 1.5m with Wii slightly ahead again on price cuts.

There's no Kirby Wii game, I don't know how many times I told you about that...

And you are way too optimist about Wii's scenario. Everything you said has to happen in order for the Wii to even maitain the sales of last year. Michael Jackson, really? PSP and 3DS games? You know it's not happening. Plus the KH Wii comment must be a joke right?
DQX is not happening until late 2012 I'd say. Pikmin 3 and VS are still vaporware. Earth Seeker will bw lucky to sell 100k. Inazuma Eleven isn't an RPG anymore, I doubt it will be a big hit.

Please have a look at Wii's line up for the yeaer and compare it to PS3's line up. I don't think I need to say anything else. Just look at the Q1 schedule and tell me why Wii isn't going sub 10k soon.



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Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
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trestres said:
TheSource said:

With the new Final Fantasy coming for the holidays for PS3 in Japan you'll probably see Nintendo try to counter with something substantial as we saw in 2009. Ideally, that game would be Dragon Quest X but I don't think Square-Enix will do that, although it would be an enormous quarter for them domestically if they could pull it off somehow. It'd be amusing if it was NSMB Wii 2 against the second real FF for PS3.

Supposedly Wii still has Inazuma Eleven, Zelda, Dragon Quest X, a Hal-Kirby game, Rhythm Heaven, Pikmin 3, Earth Seeker in addition to the games mentioned above. If DQX isn't 2011 then you have to figure Rhythm Heaven / Zelda are the holiday games with the rest as filler. Last Story in Jan / Earth Seeker for April / Inazuma Eleven for Golden Week / Kirby for Obon with various other small games or a price cut as filler. I really wouldn't rule out a big core sequel though - NSMB Wii / DKC Returns 2 - popping up out of nowhere to fill in a slow period. A new Mario Party or Wii Party or Wii Relax could do well.

Actually, the Michael Jackson game from Ubisoft is supposedly coming to Japan - that could be a good filler game. With the success of Epic Mickey, Disney might be pushing for the next Kingdom Hearts console game to be on Wii as well. Epic Mickey is going to do 2-3m at least on Wii - thats enough to justify it I think.

As PSP / DS collapse from PSP2 / 3DS I think a fair amount of PSP / 3DS could be ported to Wii as well, and there is the possibility of PSP2 and PS3 giving each other ports too. All in all, I figure Wii and PS3 will both be right around 1.5m with Wii slightly ahead again on price cuts.

There's no Kirby Wii game, I don't know how many times I told you about that...

And you are way too optimist about Wii's scenario. Everything you said has to happen in order for the Wii to even maitain the sales of last year. Michael Jackson, really? PSP and 3DS games? You know it's not happening. Plus the KH Wii comment must be a joke right?
DQX is not happening until late 2012 I'd say. Pikmin 3 and VS are still vaporware. Earth Seeker will bw lucky to sell 100k. Inazuma Eleven isn't an RPG anymore, I doubt it will be a big hit.

Please have a look at Wii's line up for the yeaer and compare it to PS3's line up. I don't think I need to say anything else. Just look at the Q1 schedule and tell me why Wii isn't going sub 10k soon.

Indeed, it reads like something I'd expect from this guy



Conegamer said:
Raze said:

Depends if Zelda comes out this year as planned.

I don't think it's an if anymore, it's a when.

Can they do it before FF13-2 is out, and reap the most sales? If not, I don't think they can pull it off.

As others have said, the key game is DQX, and maybe TLS for Q1. If they come out/do well, then they'll win

I really am not so certain FF13-2 will be so amazing, lots of disappointed FF fans with 13. I remain guarded there. Of course, the last FF game *I* enjoyed was 6 lol



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Current Japanese Wii, PS3 and 360 (<3) lineups for the year (and beyond)... english titles this time, exclusives bolded...

 

Wii

  • 01.27.11 Rabbids Travel in Time (Ubisoft)
  • 01.27.11 The Last Story (Nintendo)
  • 02.10.11 Samurai Warriors 3 Xtreme Legends (Koei Tecmo)
  • 02.24.11 Rune Factory Oceans (Marvelous Entertainment)
  • 02.24.11 SD Gundam G Generation World (Bandai)
  • 03.24.11 Night of the Sacrifice (Marvelous Entertainment)
  • 04.07.11 Earth Seeker (Kadowkawa Games)
  • SPR.11 Billy's Bootcamp: Enjoy Diet on Wii (Rocket Company)
  • SPR.11 Butobi Hero Crash Man (Tomy)
  • SPR.11 Inazuma Eleven Strikers (Level-5)
  • 2011 Deca Sports 4 (Hudson)
  • 2011 Michael Jackson: The Experience (Ubisoft)
  • 2011 New Fatal Frame (Nintendo)
  • 2011 Rhythm Heaven Wii (Nintendo)
  • 2011 Rodea the Sky Soldier (Kadowkawa Games)
  • 2011 The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo)
  • 2011 Virtua Tennis 4 (Sega)
  • TBA Dragon Quest X (Square Enix)
  • TBA Start with 100 Words! English Conversation (Nintendo)

PlayStation 3

  • 01.27.11 Dragon Age: Origins (Spike) 
  • 01.27.11 Mindjack (Square Enix)
  • 01.27.11 The Shoot (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 01.27.11 The Sly Collection (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 01.27.11 Wizardry Twin Pack (Acquire)
  • 02.03.11 WWE Smackdown Vs Raw 2011 (Yuke's)
  • 02.10.11 LittleBig Planet 2 (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 02.10.11 Red Dead Redemption: Undead Nightmare (Rockstar Games)
  • 02.10.11 Samurai Warriors 3Z (Koei Tecmo)
  • 02.17.11 Catherine (Atlus)
  • 02.17.11 Marvel Vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds (Capcom)
  • 02.17.11 Two Worlds II (Ubisoft)
  • 02.24.11 Bulletstorm (Electronic Arts)
  • 02.24.11 Killzone 3 (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 02.24.11 Love at Once: Mermaid's Tears (Maid meets Cat)
  • 02.24.11 Disgaea 4 (Nippon Ichi Soft)
  • 02.24.11 Racket Sports (Kadowkawa Games)
  • 02.24.11 Rune Factory Oceans (Marvelous Entertainment)
  • 03.03.11 Way of the Samurai 4 (Acquire)
  • 03.10.11 Dynasty Warriors 7 (Koei Tecmo)
  • 03.10.11 Disaster Report 4: Summer Memories (IREM Software Engineering)
  • 03.17.11 Yakuza: Of the End (Sega)
  • 03.24.11 Haruhi Suzumiya no Tsuisou (Bandai)
  • 03.31.11 Mamoru-kun wa Nowareteshimatta! Meikai Katsugeki Wide Version (Cyber Front)
  • 03.31.11 Test Drive Unlimited 2 (Cyber Front)
  • 03.31.11 Warriors: Legend of Troy (Koei Tecmo)
  • 03.31.11 WRC: FIA World Rally Championship (Cyber Front)
  • 04.07.11 Nail'd (Cyber Front)
  • SPR.11 Crysis 2 (Electronic Arts)
  • SPR.11 El Shaddai: Ascension of the Metatron (Ignition Entertainment)
  • SPR.11 Fight Night Champion (Electronic Arts)
  • SPR.11 Hiiro no Kakera Aizouban: Akaneiro no Tsuioku (Idea Factory)
  • SPR.11 Homefront (Spike)
  • SPR.11 Professional Baseball Spirits 2011 (Konami)
  • SUM.11 Earth Defense Force: Insect Armageddon (D3 Publisher)
  • SUM.11 Shadows of the Damned (Electronic Arts)
  • 2011 Armored Core 5 (From Software)
  • 2011 Bleach: Soul Ignition (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 Child of Eden (Ubisoft)
  • 2011 Dark Souls (From Software)
  • 2011 Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix)
  • 2011 Fortune Arterial Red Promise (Kadowkawa Games)
  • 2011 Hunted: The Demon's Forge (Bethesda Softworks)
  • 2011 Knight's Contract (Bandai)
  • 2011 MotorStorm Apocalypse (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 Ninokuni: The White Queen of Sacred Ash (Level 5)
  • 2011 PlayStation Move Heroes (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 SOCOM US Navy SEALs 4 (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 Sorcery (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 Tales of Xillia (Namco)
  • 2011 Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (Namco)
  • 2011 The Last Guardian (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 Tokyo Jungle (Sony Computer Entertainment)
  • 2011 Virtua Tennis 4 (Sega)
  • 2012 Devil's Third (THQ)
  • 2012 Kingdom Under Fire II (Blueside)
  • TBA Ace Combat: Assault Horizon (Namco)
  • TBA Asura's Wrath (Capcom)
  • TBA Binary Domain (Sega)
  • TBA Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix)
  • TBA DmC Devil May Cry (Capcom)
  • TBA Final Fantasy XIV: Online (Square Enix)
  • TBA Final Fantasy Versus XIII (Square Enix)
  • TBA Grand Slam Tennis (Electronic Arts)
  • TBA Max Anarchy (Sega)
  • TBA Metal Gear Solid Rising (Konami)
  • TBA Ni-Oh (Koei Tecmo)
  • TBA Street Fighter X Tekken (Capcom)
  • TBA Tekken X Street Fighter (Namco)
  • TBA Tom Clancey's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier (Ubisoft)

Xbox 360

  • 01.27.11 Dragon Age: Origins (Spike) 
  • 01.27.11 Dream Club Zero (D3 Publisher)
  • 01.27.11 Gal*Gun (Alchemist)
  • 01.27.11 Mindjack (Square Enix)
  • 02.03.11 DoDonPachi Resurrection Black Label (Cave) 
  • 02.03.11 WWE Smackdown Vs Raw 2011 (Yuke's)
  • 02.10.11 Arcana Gothic 4 (Cyber Front)
  • 02.10.11 Pia Carrot e Youkoso!! 4 Natsu no Koikatsu (GN Software)
  • 02.10.11 Red Dead Redemption: Undead Nightmare (Rockstar Games)
  • 02.10.11 Students of the Round (Experience)
  • 02.17.11 Catherine (Atlus)
  • 02.17.11 Marvel Vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds (Capcom)
  • 02.17.11 Two Worlds II (Ubisoft)
  • 02.24.11 Bulletstorm (Electronic Arts)
  • 02.24.11 Muchi Muchi Pork! & Pink Sweets (Cave)
  • 02.24.11 The Idom@ster 2 (Namco)
  • 03.24.11 Eschatos (Qute)
  • 03.24.11 Fighters Uncaged (Microsoft Game Studios)
  • 03.24.11 Otomedius eXcellent (Konami)
  • 03.31.11 Cross Channel: In Memory of All People (Cyber Front)
  • 03.31.11 Test Drive Unlimited 2 (Cyber Front)
  • 03.31.11 Warriors: Legend of Troy (Koei Tecmo)
  • 03.31.11 WRC: FIA World Rally Championship (Cyber Front)
  • 04.07.11 Bullet Soul (5pb.Games)
  • 04.07.11 Nail'd (Cyber Front)
  • SPR.11 code_18 (Cyber Front)
  • SPR.11 Crysis 2 (Electronic Arts)
  • SPR.11 El Shaddai: Ascension of the Metatron (Ignition Entertainment)
  • SPR.11 Fight Night Champion (Electronic Arts)
  • SPR.11 Homefront (Spike)
  • SPR.11 Phantom Breaker (5pb.Games)
  • SUM.11 Earth Defense Force: Insect Armageddon (D3 Publisher)
  • SUM.11 Shadows of the Damned (Electronic Arts)
  • AUT.11 Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios)
  • 2011 Armored Core 5 (From Software)
  • 2011 Child of Eden (Ubisoft)
  • 2011 codename D (Microsoft Game Studios)
  • 2011 Dark Souls (From Software)
  • 2011 Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix)
  • 2011 Gun Loco (Square Enix)
  • 2011 Haunt (Microsoft Game Studios)
  • 2011 Hunted: The Demon's Forge (Bethesda Softworks)
  • 2011 Knight's Contract (Bandai)
  • 2011 Phantom of Inferno (Nitroplus)
  • 2011 Project Draco (Microsoft Game Studios)
  • 2011 Rise of Nightmares (Sega)
  • 2011 Seisou Kouki Strania (G.rev)
  • 2011 Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor (Capcom)
  • 2011 Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (Namco)
  • 2011 Virtua Tennis 4 (Sega)
  • 2012 Devil's Third (THQ)
  • 2012 Kingdom Under Fire II (Blueside)
  • TBA Ace Combat: Assault Horizon (Namco)
  • TBA Asura's Wrath (Capcom)
  • TBA Binary Domain (Sega)
  • TBA Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix)
  • TBA DmC Devil May Cry (Capcom)
  • TBA Grand Slam Tennis (Electronic Arts)
  • TBA Max Anarchy (Sega)
  • TBA Metal Gear Solid Rising (Konami)
  • TBA Street Fighter X Tekken (Capcom)
  • TBA Tekken X Street Fighter (Namco)
  • TBA Tom Clancey's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier (Ubisoft)
...Wii's definitely in it's last throws support wise, though it'll still probably sell the most software this year.  If you take out western developed games, the PS3 and 360 lists get basically halved too... none of these systems really have what I'd call healthy Japanese support.


trestres said:

There's no Kirby Wii game, I don't know how many times I told you about that...

Yeah, HAL's GC/Wii Kirby was folded into their new DS Kirby from what I understand.  

Too bad, I think a "real" Wii Kirby could've been a million seller...



Conegamer said:
Ail said:

PS3 should win handily.

Seeing the current Wii sales in Japan I woudn't be surprised to see several weeks this year where Wii dips bellow 10k there...

I'd agree with you here. 

However, as we ALL know, the holiday boost for Wii is amazing, so if it can stay in touch with the PS3 (which it should) it could win. Coupled with Vitality sensor, big game releases and a price cut, and I think Wii could be on top!

You just told me it didn't exist/it wouldn't be big...LOL

You asked me why I think Nintendo has something big in 2011 and now you say Wii could win? I am confused...?