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Forums - Sales - MEANINGFUL Attach Rate Comparisons!!!

Since it was mentioned, here's Bod's thread which was in a very similar vein:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=12113

I thought it was a pretty interesting read. Just ignore the parts where we all take turns trying to pound sense into eugene. ;)



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

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I was thinking of doing such an analysis last month but didn't have the time yet (that was around the time Viper had his guest editorial on the hardware of consoles next generation in the VGChartz news section) but I missed this thread as I was on holiday in France when it happened so I will thank Kasz for pointing me to it as well as thanking Biggerboat for saving me the trouble.

This also serves as a bump as it is something that I believe is a lot more fair than normal hardware attach rates to determine whether a console sells software well or not (except for consoles with similar launch dates like the PS3 Wii in America) and I believe this thread can use more exposition.

Also I don't believe it is fair to exclude Wii Play as Wii remotes are available without Wii Play so either somebody wants Wii Play and pay the extra $10 for it and it is thus a retail sale with as much significance as any other (unless you want to remove all budget games, platinum games and other cheaper than normal games), or they do not want/need an extra Wii remote in which case they want Wii Play badly enough to pay $50 for it. but in the end, giving all 3 numbers (w-w/o Wii Play/Sport) is better as others will obviously disagree with me.



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

wii sports..

Well watever.



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

assuming the math is correct--great analysis. i nominate it for Thread of The Year.

quick, somebody make a Thread of the Year 2007 Edition Elimination Game!



the Wii is an epidemic.

Bladeneo said:
Well...interesting find. Although its hard to determine actual software (MS has bundles as do Sony), It seems pretty darn good for the PS3. So much for all the blu-ray only buyers.

I agree with you there man! Looks like people aren't buying only Blu Ray movies.

Thats excellent news for PS3. Too bad developers only look at total sales, not ratios or anything.



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Biggerboat said:

OK, Japan rates:

Wii - 0.331

PS3 - 0.234

360 - 0.306

Wii clearly comes out on top, PS3 struggling in 3rd and 360 not too far behind Wii in 2nd though it has sold so few consoles that it's not really all that relevant.

Wii adjusted for Wii Play - 0.289, still ahead of PS3!

EDIT, origionally had adjusted Wii rate at 0.259, corrected to show 0.289.


Good analysis.

But, it seems to point out even more than usual, that attachment rates, in and of themselves, are NOT that useful, when the X360 comes out on top.  Yet what 3rd party is going to develope games for the X360 in Japan?

 

As far as the comment about bargain games (including Wii Play since basically it is a $10 game that people are choosing to buy, versus just a controller), a sale is a sale.  And if Eyeshield 21: The Gridirons Strongest (seller of 31,500 and 4 copies), is counted, then Wii Play at $10 a pop should be counted as well!

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

I think it's important to make sure you DO include pack ins. If you get 3 games with your console you've no need to go out and buy another game til you've had a good play on the 3 of them. If you bought a console with no pack in then you may well have bought 3 games in the time it takes for the other person to play their pack ins. Therefore if you don't include pack ins you're making the attach rate artificially low.



Any way you look at it, the myth of Wii owners not buying games is false, the only issue is the quality of third parites, which, with a few excpetions, is disappointing



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

So let me get this straight because I'm having a hard time trying to figure out where the "meaningful" part comes in your post.

Gamer A buys a 360 in Nov 2005 and has since bought 25 games for it.

25 games / 26 months = 0.962 software attach rate per month

Gamer B buys a Wii in Dec 2007 and buys no games with it, it comes with Wii Sports.

1 game / 1 month = 1.0 software attach rate per month


Now we're supposed to believe that Gamer B is the more attractive consumer because his software attach rate per month is higher?  What if he had bought Wii Play to go along with it?  Gamer A would have had to have bought 52 games in total to score an equivalent attach rate per month.  Did I make a mistake or is this how your're calculating attachment rates and how you're getting your meaningful numbers?

No offence but your system is much worse than the current system for calculating software attach rates.  Oh and it doesn't matter if you take out pack-in games and something like Wii Play because the system still makes no sense.



Wow, you found a way of twisting statistics in your favour.

It is not a fair comparison because Wii and PS3 has been out for a much shorter time, and most people buy a couple of games with their console, but rarely actually buy games on a steady basis.

If you want to make it fair, then only include the 360 for the same amount of time after launch as the other consoles.