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Forums - Sales - Xbox360 to be in second place in this wks sales

Michael-5 said:
Icyedge said:
Michael-5 said:
 

Actually Microsoft said shortages are to experienced throughout January and February, and they said at the very earliest to expect shortages to stop by February. 166% of PS3 sales in Americas is normal, maybe even a bit low for the 360. I recall seeing it sell 2:1 after the 360 Slim, and I think after shortages are over it should sell about that much better in the Americas due to the popularity of Kinect. It's very unusual to see a game outsell the console 11 weeks after it's release, so I really feel shortages are still in effect.

166% isnt low by any mean, its one of the highest difference. 2:1 was right after the slim release. Feel free to compare using the tool's website, 166% isnt low. The week before was lower then this, it was about 133% if I remember well. Doesnt seem like shortages have a quantifiable effect as of now.

166% is normal for the Americas region. I just expect it to be a bit higher due to Kinect. I mean 150k Kinect adventure sales, 125k 360 sales? However you are right though, this week I've been seeing a stronger supply of 360's, and a 2:1 ratio is probably unlikely. Lets see what happens in next weeks data.


166% isnt normal. It got around that range only after Kinect release. Before that, PS3 was outselling 360 for a good year. Sure there was the slim revision effect but this never last long. So yes, Kinect does have a great effect on sales. But, at 166%, the kinect effect is there. I think there was only 2 weeks since the Kinect release (first week and christmas week), where the difference has been higher then 166%. Like I said in the last post, there is tools on the website where you can look that up for yourself.

Personally, im not trying to downplay anything. Selling 166% of the competitors in a specific market is extremely good result. Simply pointing that this result is similar then before the said "shortages". Hell, its even higher then the week before.



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Icyedge said:
Michael-5 said:
Icyedge said:
Michael-5 said:
 

Actually Microsoft said shortages are to experienced throughout January and February, and they said at the very earliest to expect shortages to stop by February. 166% of PS3 sales in Americas is normal, maybe even a bit low for the 360. I recall seeing it sell 2:1 after the 360 Slim, and I think after shortages are over it should sell about that much better in the Americas due to the popularity of Kinect. It's very unusual to see a game outsell the console 11 weeks after it's release, so I really feel shortages are still in effect.

166% isnt low by any mean, its one of the highest difference. 2:1 was right after the slim release. Feel free to compare using the tool's website, 166% isnt low. The week before was lower then this, it was about 133% if I remember well. Doesnt seem like shortages have a quantifiable effect as of now.

166% is normal for the Americas region. I just expect it to be a bit higher due to Kinect. I mean 150k Kinect adventure sales, 125k 360 sales? However you are right though, this week I've been seeing a stronger supply of 360's, and a 2:1 ratio is probably unlikely. Lets see what happens in next weeks data.


166% isnt normal. It got around that range only after Kinect release. Before that, PS3 was outselling 360 for a good year. Sure there was the slim revision effect but this never last long. So yes, Kinect does have a great effect on sales. But, at 166%, the kinect effect is there. I think there was only 2 weeks since the Kinect release (first week and christmas week), where the difference has been higher then 166%. Like I said in the last post, there is tools on the website where you can look that up for yourself.

Personally, im not trying to downplay anything. Selling 166% of the competitors in a specific market is extremely good result. Simply pointing that this result is similar then before the said "shortages". Hell, its even higher then the week before.

2010 cumulate sales in Americas: 360 = 8.5 million, PS3 = 5.5 million. 360 outsold PS3 by 54%

After Kinect 360 sales sky rocketed, on the week ending christmas (arbitrary week a month after Kinects release), 360 outsold the PS3 by 89% (775k compared to 410k). So No 360 sales in America have been near double PS3 sales for over a month after Kinect, and now the ratio drops when MS calls a shortage? Hm..

The holiday season is over, but Kinect demand is still high, 66% is a normal lead for 360 in Americas considering Kinect is still new.

I just expect 360 sales to be a little higher in America. In EMEAA Kinect sales are roughly the same as 360 sales, but in Americas Kinect is selling almost 30k above the 360. Microsoft said themselves that they are experiencing shortages, and at best case, those shortages won't be met until February.

So I still think the 360 will outsell the PS3 by a small margin worldwide for a long while coming. Wii and DS sales tend to drop lower then 360 and PS3 sales during the regular year (probably because PS3 and 360 are more hardcore consoles), so the 360 does have a reasonable chance to come in first worldwide. However I think the 3DS will steal that lead soon enough.

Of course the ratio is better this week then lasts, some stores are getting new shipments, so shortages are less severe.

Still 1st on the console front is very possible. You don't have to agree, but I've made my opinion clear and backed it up with sufficient reasoning.

P.S. Before the 360 Slim, the 360 was still outselling the PS3 in Americas, even after the PS3 Slim. However the difference was only about 20-30%, instead of the prior average of 50%.



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I said, lets see what happens in next weeks data, but I completly forgot LBP2 and Mass Effect 2 were being launched the week ending January 22nd. So ignore that, PS3 will be first that week, 360 may come in second, but I think it will be a close third for now.

Lets wait for the week ending January 29th. Dead Space 2 is being released, but thats multiplatform, so it will only bring HD console sales above Wii. Question is, will PS3 or 360 come first?

It's kind of funny how the Wii is the leading system, but I feel for 2011 PS3 and 360 will be dominating sales (until the holidays)



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Michael-5 said:

Well it's garenteed thirs for a while, even with shortages it came in third this week, and it's only 35k away from 1st/2nd, but the DS and Wii are selling so closely if 360 takes anything it will take first.

I think for a few weeks in february the 360 will take first, but the 3DS comes out in Japan in 5 weeks, and 9 worldwide. When that happens I think the 3DS will take first, and hold it for a while

However if your talking about just home consoles, then yea I think the 360 will stay ontop until at least E3, and as long as MS can keep Casual fans happy with Kinect, and hardcore fans happy with Gears, Forza, and maybe a Halo 1 remake then except for the last two months of the year (where Wii will take off in sales), then the 360 can be the best selling console for a while. However until shortages are dealt with it's going to have to settle for second, and when PS3/Wii have any big game releases, the 360 will temporarily fall behind.

Looks like I predicted right, but how long can 360 stay ontop? With shortages dissappearing 360 is increasing it's pretty tiny lead, but even at only 3% above PS3, 360 should make up for it's shortages in 15 weeks. Thats a long time, which just shows for justification the PS3/360 sales will likely remain on or close to par for a long while. I only mention PS3 because I beleive Wii sales will continue to drop outside the holiday season, more then PS3/360, and I think both HD consoles will at least re-balance sales with the Wii by about 15 weeks as well.

So in 15 weeks we should see an almost even annual Summary. I say at about the release of L.A. Noire and Duke Nukem.

Lets see if my first prediction holds, and then see if the second one even comes true.



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