Please read and pick a scenario from the 4 below.

** No data for first 4 years, this is what it sold in those years however
* Year 1 for both consoles includes only Nov and Dec, launch period

The gap is exactly 4 million units.

Year 1 - 4 PS2 sold an extra 2.2 million units over X360, but years 5 - 6 the 360 is ahead 60,000. It should be obvious the X360 isn't following the same sales pattern as PS2, judging by the steep drop in Year 7 (nearly halved). It's likely X360 will only fall to a minimum of 1.2, then again if Kinect takes off more than we thought it could improve on its 2010 1.6 million.

Whatever happens, the 360 since slim launch has asserted itself as the dominant console in the UK. Since June 26th, the Wii has only beaten the 360 3 times out of 29, X360 dominated xmas and sales are currently 2:1 to X360. The X360 is having the sales the market leader should have.

Scenario 1 - If Kinect fails to take off at all, and the X360 declines similar to the PS2, sales will more than likely look like this.

2011 - 1.1 million
2012 - 750k
2013 - 400k
2014 - 200k
2015 - 50k

Total 6.2 plus 2.5 = 8.7. 1.5 million behind the PS2.

Scenario 2 - If 2010 was the X360's peak year in the UK, sales will more than likely look like this.

2011 - 1.3 million
2012 - 1 million
2013 - 600k
2014 - 350k
2015 - 150k

Total 6.2 plus 3.4 = 9.6. Shy 600k from overtaking the PS2 (as it's unlikely to gain on its 10.2 millon now.)

Scenario 3 - If however Kinect keeps things steady for 2011, sales could look like this.

2011 - 1.5 million
2012 - 1.2 million
2013 - 750k
2014 - 400k
2015 - 200k
2016 - 50k

Total 6.2 plus 4.1 = 10.3. This would have it ahead of PS2 by about 50k at the time.

Scenario 4 - If, though, Kinect extends the life of the X360 like Microsoft expect, sales could look like this.

2011 - 1.7 million
2012 - 1.4 million
2013 - 1 million
2014 - 750k
2015 - 400k
2016 - 200k
2016 - 50k

Total 6.2 plus 5.5 = 11.8. 1.5 million above the PS2, this is also best case scenario but if Wii did peak in 2008, it would stand a chance of overtaking Wii with these sales (only 1.6 million behind Wii).

So, which scenario do you think is most likely?

I doubt very much the 360 will ever pass the ps2 in the UK.

Two scenarios bares the results 360 fans would be satisfied with, so I choose every scenario except 3 and 4! / jk.  I bet it will be close though, but with ps2 having a slight edge, so in between 2 and 3.

I'm split between Scenario 2 and 3. Either way, it'll be really impressive that two consoles top 10m (well, one gets really close, at the very least) in the same generstion int the UK.

I can't see it happening, I just don't see the X360 having the PS2 legs for that long.

Try and be open minded for once Gilgamesh and look at the charts, it's pretty clear in the UK at least, PS2 didn't actually have fantastic legs, it dropped off relatively fast compared to WW sales. 360 is already showing stronger legs, at this point in time, PS2 was declining fast.

So far the 360 has the strongest legs of the big 3 so I wouldn't doubt that the 360 will eventually overtake the PS2 in the UK. The PS2 didn't have great legs it just had a couple of OK years and two great years judging from that chart.

First, the 360 is not the Dominant console in the UK. Second, yes it can outsell the PS2 if it continues to sell for years as MS is known to keep its console going. I expect it to get very close as the 360 is having a couple great years in the UK. 

Don't be so pedantic, I didn't say it was market leader there, just that it was the dominant console of the time. I'm pretty sure consistantly outselling Wii over the last 6 months, over Dec, and now 2:1 makes it dominant.

You are right the 360 is the dominant console in the UK the last 6 months.