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Forums - Sales - johnlucas makes a conservative prediction!

Avinash_Tyagi on 17 December 2007
Final-Fan said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Check your math dude how is PS1+PS2+PS3 at 250 million?

PS1 is at 102 million
PS2 is at 113 million (check the VGC hardware table)
PS3 is at 7 million

222 million, not 250 million, if you're going to argue my prediction at least do your math homework first, you really think PS2 is going to add that much more? Its in decline as it is, and PS3 isn't going to add much to that level, maybe 20 million more, you've probably got 250-255 million tops from the PS family by 2015

I counted the PlayStation Portable, or isn't that part of the Playstation family?


 Note my prediction, that i've had up for weeks, says consoles (aren't guys like you saying we can't compare consoles and handhelds that they are two seperate markets), has that suddenly changed for you are consoles and handhelds the same, because if they are then the same arguments for DS success should apply to the Wii, are you suddnly saying that the PSP is a console and should be counted as a console and thus all handhelds are consoles?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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reverie on 17 December 2007

Given economic realities, the best case scenario would be China tying with the UK as the #3 videogame market in this generation. Less is likely.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

omgwtfbbq on 17 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Final-Fan said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Check your math dude how is PS1+PS2+PS3 at 250 million?

PS1 is at 102 million
PS2 is at 113 million (check the VGC hardware table)
PS3 is at 7 million

222 million, not 250 million, if you're going to argue my prediction at least do your math homework first, you really think PS2 is going to add that much more? Its in decline as it is, and PS3 isn't going to add much to that level, maybe 20 million more, you've probably got 250-255 million tops from the PS family by 2015

I counted the PlayStation Portable, or isn't that part of the Playstation family?


Note my prediction, that i've had up for weeks, says consoles (aren't guys like you saying we can't compare consoles and handhelds that they are two seperate markets), has that suddenly changed for you are consoles and handhelds the same, because if they are then the same arguments for DS success should apply to the Wii, are you suddnly saying that the PSP is a console and should be counted as a console and thus all handhelds are consoles?


uh oh, you're falling for the whole "lump everyone who disagrees with me as one person" trick. Final-fan never stated at any point that handheld history could not be applied to consoles. 

Besides, there's a big difference between adding the PSP numbers to the total sales of the Playstation brand of consoles and saying that PSP/DS sales are a precedent for PS3/Wii sales.

You need to be a bit less defensive here. 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Final-Fan on 17 December 2007
omgwtfbbq said:
Also, your sig is WAY TOO LONG, seriously cut it down, it's just ridiculous. td>

I completely agree; I was going to say something about it but I forgot.  ssj12, you don't even need to cut out any information, just delete all the unnecessary spacing and doublespacing on your games and predictions.  The way it is now is worse than Soriku ever was. 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Renar on 17 December 2007
omgwtfbbq said:

As for the others, I think JL's actually has the least chance of coming true. 40 million over 12 months (assuming his 20 million end of year prediction comes true) means 3.3 million consoles manufactured per month, or almost double their current rate. Given that Nintendo has been relatively slow upping production, and given that it won't beat out 1.8 million per month for the first few months, I don't see Nintendo producing anywhere near that number no matter how high the demand is. Even the DS is only going around 2.5 million/month right now.


Okay, if LTD sales hit 20M this year, then like you say 'only' 40M in sales are needed in 2008.  If the manufacture rate goes up to say, 2.0 average, that's another 24M to be at 44M LTD.

 Then when the Gamestop Wii 'rain-check' proves successful this year, just issue 16M 'rain-checks' next Christmas, and *PRESTO* 60M sales!!  :)



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

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Avinash_Tyagi on 17 December 2007
omgwtfbbq said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Final-Fan said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Check your math dude how is PS1+PS2+PS3 at 250 million?

PS1 is at 102 million
PS2 is at 113 million (check the VGC hardware table)
PS3 is at 7 million

222 million, not 250 million, if you're going to argue my prediction at least do your math homework first, you really think PS2 is going to add that much more? Its in decline as it is, and PS3 isn't going to add much to that level, maybe 20 million more, you've probably got 250-255 million tops from the PS family by 2015

I counted the PlayStation Portable, or isn't that part of the Playstation family?


Note my prediction, that i've had up for weeks, says consoles (aren't guys like you saying we can't compare consoles and handhelds that they are two seperate markets), has that suddenly changed for you are consoles and handhelds the same, because if they are then the same arguments for DS success should apply to the Wii, are you suddnly saying that the PSP is a console and should be counted as a console and thus all handhelds are consoles?


uh oh, you're falling for the whole "lump everyone who disagrees with me as one person" trick. Final-fan never stated at any point that handheld history could not be applied to consoles. 

Besides, there's a big difference between adding the PSP numbers to the total sales of the Playstation brand of consoles and saying that PSP/DS sales are a precedent for PS3/Wii sales.

You need to be a bit less defensive here. 


Ah he didn't well my apologies then, after a while all the Wii doubters and their arguments seem to blend 

I would have to disagree, the PSP/DS is the perfect indicator of the PS3/Wii with the only caveat being that the PS3 is doing worse than the PSP and the Wii is doing better than the DS, probably due to the handhelds generating more support for the Wii early on because of the appeal of the DS, and MS being in the console market.  However other than that fact the two battle share the same things, like the mistakes by Sony (pushing a multimedia device with poor games support for example) and Nintendo using its games to reach out to new markets

  Anyways on my prediction it was with regards to consoles only, adding in PSP would require until 2018 for the Wii to pass the PS1, PS2 and PS3 and PSP combined. 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

omgwtfbbq on 17 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
omgwtfbbq said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Final-Fan said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Check your math dude how is PS1+PS2+PS3 at 250 million?

PS1 is at 102 million
PS2 is at 113 million (check the VGC hardware table)
PS3 is at 7 million

222 million, not 250 million, if you're going to argue my prediction at least do your math homework first, you really think PS2 is going to add that much more? Its in decline as it is, and PS3 isn't going to add much to that level, maybe 20 million more, you've probably got 250-255 million tops from the PS family by 2015

I counted the PlayStation Portable, or isn't that part of the Playstation family?


Note my prediction, that i've had up for weeks, says consoles (aren't guys like you saying we can't compare consoles and handhelds that they are two seperate markets), has that suddenly changed for you are consoles and handhelds the same, because if they are then the same arguments for DS success should apply to the Wii, are you suddnly saying that the PSP is a console and should be counted as a console and thus all handhelds are consoles?


uh oh, you're falling for the whole "lump everyone who disagrees with me as one person" trick. Final-fan never stated at any point that handheld history could not be applied to consoles.

Besides, there's a big difference between adding the PSP numbers to the total sales of the Playstation brand of consoles and saying that PSP/DS sales are a precedent for PS3/Wii sales.

You need to be a bit less defensive here.


Ah he didn't well my apologies then, after a while all the Wii doubters and their arguments seem to blend

I would have to disagree, the PSP/DS is the perfect indicator of the PS3/Wii with the only caveat being that the PS3 is doing worse than the PSP and the Wii is doing better than the DS, probably due to the handhelds generating more support for the Wii early on because of the appeal of the DS, and MS being in the console market. However other than that fact the two battle share the same things, like the mistakes by Sony (pushing a multimedia device with poor games support for example) and Nintendo using its games to reach out to new markets

Anyways on my prediction it was with regards to consoles only, adding in PSP would require until 2018 for the Wii to pass the PS1, PS2 and PS3 and PSP combined.


disagree with what? I never said that the PSP/DS isn't an indicator of PS3/Wii. I just said that there's a difference between saying that and counting PSP as a Playstation console. In fact, I completely agree with you, I think that the situation between the PS3 and the Wii is going to mirror the situation between the PSP and the DS almost completely. The main difference, however, is the existance of a third competitor, which in some ways will hurt the PS3 and in some ways will help the PS3.



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Parokki on 17 December 2007

People are still thinking Wii sales will slow down, rather than speed up? I suppose it's still forgivable, but if you don't get a clue by the end of next year, then I'm getting seriously worried.

40M is the absolute minimum the Wii can be at when 2008 ends. 60M is a pretty optimistic estimate, but could happen if Nintendo gets bold and increases production by enough. The total will probably be somewhere in between the two.



Mummelmann on 17 December 2007
ssj12 said:
fazz said:
Isn't that a bit too low ssj12? It made almost 20 million in a year... why would it do just 9 millions in the same time frame considering possible price cuts and bigger library?

Also, RolStoppable's one is actually very possible. PS3 will end up having Xbox 1-numbers if lucky, so it's not that silly!

nope I think there should be a slow down in sales.

 

End of the Year totals:

Wii: 18,904,709 units

360: 16,136,272 units

PS3: 8,798,598 units

 


 A voice of reason... (hugs ssj12 and wipes a tear)



HappySqurriel on 17 December 2007
ssj12 said:
JL's prediction is still quite high... I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.

I don't even see how that is plausable ... For your prediction to come true Wii demand would have to drop to a third even though it will see the release of several huge first party games (Wii Fit, Super Smash Bros. and Mario Kart), and third party support will move away from quick ports and shovelware to actual fully fleshed out games.

Even if sales start to dip, Nintendo can cut the price below $200 which opens them up to the mass market who won't be considering an XBox 360 or PS3 due to their price, probably don't have a Wii yet, and believe that it is cool because of how popular it is.