@SSJ12:

Huh? Even if the Wii slows down after March-April it will already have sold more than half of what you are predicting without either Xmas 08 or any price cuts so I have a hard time seeing how it could underperform that much, unless you are a believer in the "Wii will stop selling in mid-08 theory".

 Just for the record, the PS2 went from approximately 8,000,000 units on the end of its first year to 26,000,000 on the end of its second year.

Traditions take a flying leap when it comes to Wii sales. This is remarkably hard to deny when you look at the sales curve on the hardware-from-launch chart, even at small intervals.

At the current production rates, we should see about 40 million Wii systems in circulation by the end of 2008, assuming no production increases (or decreases, assuming demand is somehow met before the 40mil mark; unlikely). That's a good 33% shy of the 60 million estimate, but is also a sort of worst-case scenario. Given that hardware production increases are part and parcel of any console's continued existence (be it revolutionary or just relatively successful), we may well come closer to that 60mil estimate than current sales would suggest. Particularly if the China release of the Wii comes early enough in 2008; China's already shown their interest in the console with the release of the cheap knock-off Vii and Vii 2.

The other guesses, well... Yeah, some of them are pretty silly. Soriku's being the least silly, since the PS3 would probably have done closer that number if not for the various tactics used to get sales up (price drops, discontinuing SKUs and introducing new ones shortly afterwards, etc.).

 For my prediction to come true Wii only needs to sell an average of 30 million a year for the next eight years, easily doable with the way Wii demand is going (especially since Wii is over $200, remember below 200 is where console sales really skyrocket), all that is limiting is supply

 yeah, 2nd year sales should be a lot higher. ssj's prediction is way too low IMO.

The biggest limiter for the Wii outside the supply constraint is the actual size of its true potential market. It's quaint to say that anybody can pick up and play, and it's pretty true overall, but not everybody who can be a part of that market is going to be.

Oh, and on the legendary 120mil of the PS2: how many of those are replacement units, I wonder? Probably most of the early models. I know I've owned 2 PS2s over the years, since my original was traded in for a slimline after said original stopped reading non-game DVDs and game CDs. I'm sure I'm not even close to the only one who's done this, either. Nintendo consoles tend to have a lower failure rate, and much better policies on hardware repair, meaning there won't be as inflated of sales from replacement models.

Check your math dude how is PS1+PS2+PS3 at 250 million?

PS1 is at 102 million
PS2 is at 113 million (check the VGC hardware table)
PS3 is at 7 million

222 million, not 250 million, if you're going to argue my prediction at least do your math homework first, you really think PS2 is going to add that much more? Its in decline as it is, and PS3 isn't going to add much to that level, maybe 20 million more, you've probably got 250-255 million tops from the PS family by 2015

ha! absolutely ridiculous prediction by ssj12, I hope someone records this one so that when it's smashed halfway through next year we can make him eat crow. Also, your sig is WAY TOO LONG, seriously cut it down, it's just ridiculous. I wish ioi would introduce a "max sig length"

As for the others, I think JL's actually has the least chance of coming true. 40 million over 12 months (assuming his 20 million end of year prediction comes true) means 3.3 million consoles manufactured per month, or almost double their current rate. Given that Nintendo has been relatively slow upping production, and given that it won't beat out 1.8 million per month for the first few months, I don't see Nintendo producing anywhere near that number no matter how high the demand is. Even the DS is only going around 2.5 million/month right now.

As for the other predictions, while they are certainly very optimistic, they give no timeframe and anything could happen, especially if a market such as China takes off and the Wii seriously expands the market, we could be in completely new territory. I love how people say "the usual rules don't apply to the Wii, it could die off completely next year." but aren't willing to accept "the usual rules don't apply to the Wii, it could sell to three times the user base."

I counted the PlayStation Portable, or isn't that part of the Playstation family?