johnlucas makes a conservative prediction!

[Final-Fan]

Avinash_Tyagi said:

Final-Fan said:

avinash_Tyagi: "Wii will outsell the entire playstation family put together"

avinash_Tyagi's goal for the Wii is already in excess of 250 million and is only going up, and RolStoppable's goal is potentially upwards of 300 million (ex. PS3 55m, 360 45m).  These guys' predictions may be less than 100% inaccurate, but still.  

 For my prediction to come true Wii only needs to sell an average of 30 million a year for the next eight years, easily doable with the way Wii demand is going (especially since Wii is over $200, remember below 200 is where console sales really skyrocket), all that is limiting is supply

30 x 8 = 240.  240 + ~18-20 = about 260.  Current total of Playstation Family = more than 255 million. 

So, basically, you expect the PS3 and PSP to never sell another unit.  I consider that not "easily doable". 

ssj12 said:  I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008

Frankly, ssj12, that prediction is ridiculous.  Current production is 1.8 million a month and it is not up to demand.  1.8 x 12 = 21.6, but you expect only about 10 million more than this year's LTD, which means more like 0.8 million a month for 2008. 

Counting in the fact that sales early in the year are GUARANTEED to be closer to the 1.8 million figure, I can only conclude that you believe sales will dry up to around 500k per month after the first three or four months.  Is this actually what you believe will happen?  It sounds like crazy talk to me.