--OkeyDokey-- said: multiplats are doing fine on the ps3 (well most of them) its exclusives that are most likely having a hard time breaking even with development costs. heavenly sword for example, is one of the biggest budget games this generation and at 600, 000 sold so far, it doesn't look like it will end up making much if any profit for the developer. ratchet and clank is another example, this game was apparently insomniac's biggest project yet and sales have been crushingly dissapointing so far. developers won't stop making multiplats for the ps3, but i have a feeling theres not going to be many 3rd party exclusives if this continues.

Resistance took awhile before finally nudging the 1 million mark. The same thing with Motorstorm.

I don't know about Heavenly Sword since that has been out longer, but Ratchet and Uncharted could get to 1 million, but it will still take a little time.

well one thing you have to take note of is that if the only advantage of exclusive games was lower development costs, then no games would be exclusive.

When you make a game exclusive, the licensor usually gives you some incentive, such as support for advertising, support in development, lower licensing costs, or in extreme cases, a large sum of money.

Due to the nature of this generation, some titles will go to all platforms. I don't see those stopping on the PS3 any time soon. If the game is not going to be exclusive anyway, you might as well put it on the PS3 since it's cheap to port from Xbox360.

Other titles will have the choice between Xbox360/PS3 cross-platform and Xbox/PS3 exclusive. If the PS3 sales have a large drop after Christmas, I think we will start to see these sales edge more towards Xbox360 exclusive. Especially for western based games and developers.

Famine said: --OkeyDokey-- said: multiplats are doing fine on the ps3 (well most of them) its exclusives that are most likely having a hard time breaking even with development costs. heavenly sword for example, is one of the biggest budget games this generation and at 600, 000 sold so far, it doesn't look like it will end up making much if any profit for the developer. ratchet and clank is another example, this game was apparently insomniac's biggest project yet and sales have been crushingly dissapointing so far. developers won't stop making multiplats for the ps3, but i have a feeling theres not going to be many 3rd party exclusives if this continues. Resistance took awhile before finally nudging the 1 million mark. The same thing with Motorstorm. I don't know about Heavenly Sword since that has been out longer, but Ratchet and Uncharted could get to 1 million, but it will still take a little time.

Comparing a launch game (Resistance) and a launch and bundled game (Motorstorm, was launch in Europe where it seems to have got most of its sales) sales curve to a game that was released one year after release is meaningless. The sales curves are completely different.

 

IMO, I think your just about spot-on Bod. This is why we're seeing so many games go X360/PS3, rather than X360 exclusive, or all 3 major platforms outside of the normal EA-verything that's done.

Merely because developers would be stupid not to double or triple their investment by porting to PS3.

This is very good for the PS3, as it doesn't loose all of it's titles to switch to X360-only. However, it forces the PS3 to carry very, very, little exclusives.

Since the beginning of the generation, we've typically seen the pattern of:

X360 launch
X360 Exclusives (lots of them) announced
PS3 launch
PS3 exclusives (some) announced
PS3 software takes a nose dive in attach rates, sales
Bulk of PS2 library now X360/PS3
Few exclusives currently now announced for X360, new sequals to X360-exclusive IPs now multi-plat (SR2, LP2, ect).

And on the other hand, some just go straight to the Wii, and never look back (MH3).

However, I think the thing is, that the X360/PS3 multiplatform choice, for developers, is a good one. Having both platforms available for sales can really put the developers in a strong spot - X360 rules North America, PS3 rules Japan, and both do good in Europe.

Which IMO, this is a critical key to both systems overcoming Wii's great sales. Yes, the Wii is selling great, but the vast, vast, vast, vast majority of 3rd party succuess is either with the Xbox 360, or X360/PS3 multi-plats.

Which for devs, is what matters. If the environments of the X360-to-PS3 ports are justifiable in terms of time vs. money made, it'll keep the massive ammount of non-Wii Western games rolling in, forcing the Wii to lack a large section of titles, that it never had last gen, and doesn't have this gen.

Bodhesatva said:  Effectively, this means that third party companies can expect a 10-15 percent increase in development cost (at worst) to produce (on average) a 25 percent increase in revenue.

  

Actually with your numbers the increase would be 33%.  That not counting with European and Japanese sales, which are better for PS3.  I'd like to see it the other way around though,  how much would it cost to develop first in PS3 and then port to 360?

 

The one unanswered question is how prepared is Sony to face competition from Microsoft for key exclusive games ...

When your system is as popular as the PS2 you don't have to do much to get the lion's share of exclusive games; when you are a trailing system, exclusive software comes from a monetary transfer of some sort. Now, Sony is losing a ton of money on PS3 hardware which they are probably not recovering from the sales of PS3 games, the PSP has awful software sales and if Sony plans to release a follow up on a standard 5 to 6 year cycle will have a massive R&D budget in the near future, and the PS2's software sales are dropping very quickly. If Microsoft started throwing around money tomorow could Sony match their offers?

If you're expecting a profit of $20 Million by releasing a port of and XBox 360 game to the PS3 would you be willing to kill the port for $25 to $50 Million?

With the quirk nature of the Japanese gaming market lately, would a game get created for the X360, ported to the PS3, but only for America and Europe? With the developer saying 'screw it. to translate, change the box for Japanese tastes isn't worth my while'. Or is this cost so minimal that if a game sells 10k, it's paid for all of that?

omgwtfbbq said: Comparing a launch game (Resistance) and a launch and bundled game (Motorstorm, was launch in Europe where it seems to have got most of its sales) sales curve to a game that was released one year after release is meaningless. The sales curves are completely different.

Yes, but it still doesn't change the fact that it took both games a few more months to cross over the 1 million mark. Ratchet has been out for 2 months, and Uncharted has been out for a month.

 

omgwtfbbq said: Famine said: --OkeyDokey-- said: multiplats are doing fine on the ps3 (well most of them) its exclusives that are most likely having a hard time breaking even with development costs. heavenly sword for example, is one of the biggest budget games this generation and at 600, 000 sold so far, it doesn't look like it will end up making much if any profit for the developer. ratchet and clank is another example, this game was apparently insomniac's biggest project yet and sales have been crushingly dissapointing so far. developers won't stop making multiplats for the ps3, but i have a feeling theres not going to be many 3rd party exclusives if this continues. Resistance took awhile before finally nudging the 1 million mark. The same thing with Motorstorm. I don't know about Heavenly Sword since that has been out longer, but Ratchet and Uncharted could get to 1 million, but it will still take a little time. Comparing a launch game (Resistance) and a launch and bundled game (Motorstorm, was launch in Europe where it seems to have got most of its sales) sales curve to a game that was released one year after release is meaningless. The sales curves are completely different.

You realize that both games broke 1 mil BEFORE being bundled right?

@OkeyDokey: 

Maybe you would give us some numbers to back up your opinions?
HS is right now at 0.66mln. Counting 60$ per unit it equals 40 mln $ revenue (in fact it is more as this game cost more in UE). With around 35$ going for Sony for each unit that game made more than 23 mln so is should cover HS budget (20 mil) with few millions left to cover marketing expenses. And this game still is selling.

About Insomniac: I think that their biggest current generation game so far is Resistance. I read in a forum that Ratched costed 12 mil. This may not be true number (just some guy posted it with no link) but if correct they have already broken even.