well one thing you have to take note of is that if the only advantage of exclusive games was lower development costs, then no games would be exclusive.
When you make a game exclusive, the licensor usually gives you some incentive, such as support for advertising, support in development, lower licensing costs, or in extreme cases, a large sum of money.
Due to the nature of this generation, some titles will go to all platforms. I don't see those stopping on the PS3 any time soon. If the game is not going to be exclusive anyway, you might as well put it on the PS3 since it's cheap to port from Xbox360.
Other titles will have the choice between Xbox360/PS3 cross-platform and Xbox/PS3 exclusive. If the PS3 sales have a large drop after Christmas, I think we will start to see these sales edge more towards Xbox360 exclusive. Especially for western based games and developers.
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